jaster220 Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 9 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: If Michigan were my back yard (more on back yard later) I'd be concerned about the NAM daubing out, (usually amped at this range) per my back yard for any impending storm shown on guidance out in the long range- expect it E and weaker with cold air (lacking) as previously mentioned by several posters. Without true Arctic air - and little snowpack- expect systems to shift E and get wetter (more rain). It sucks getting drawn into these models. One thing I've learned over years in this field that is outside 48-60 hours - anything can happen with winter weather, infact- much closer. Posting of snow maps +96 (ive done in the past) I will not do again. Just too many variables for it to really make any sense between snow and rain or even nothing. Look at this Michigan "system" and thread title. #1 rule as a forecaster is to down play events until you can't anymore as the rule of (most climates) dictates agst it. 12-24" snow events don't happen for 99.5% of us reading this 2-3 days out. 6-12" events on the order of 90%- 36-48 hours out. Remember folks- model (guidance) has a MAX set into to POP- can it excede it is not up to the model but for a human to see the likely effect it WILL not over that forecast range per SQ MI. I give NWS a hard time- but they are more right and give credence to "status quo" and are more right per "SQ MI" than we could ever be. Again - DOWNPLAY all events - unless you really follow the weather- if models- expect to get what you deserve. That X1,000 Appreciate your insights/commentary Grizz. After 4 days of globals showing cold air sweeping in behind the northern stream clipper and then the GFS finally joining the Euro and GEM, it seemed like it was "game on". But no sooner did I create the thread and it all fell apart like a house of cards. I did put 2 caveats in my text, the cold being critical to evolution, and the fact that these phase-bombs are the worst for models to portray. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Niko said: GEM looks good as well, if not better. Tbh, I suspect that there will be better sampling by tomorrow as the event nears. My high temp Monday is currently set at 36F but seems to drop to freezing by 4 pm. Let's see if these west trends are f'real. Last minute comeback? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 00z Euro....@ToledoWx...I mean, @FAR_Weather has eyes for being close to the epicenter of this early season winter storm... @Niko will fair well as well... I know there are some peeps in NW and N IN that chime on here every once in a while as well so I will comment on the LES set up as it looks great TBH for a long duration event. @indianajohn may be getting his first bout of snow of the season along with that other guy in NW IN (pardon me for not remembering his name). 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 Nice write-up from NOAA: The part of the forecast that has the most uncertainty is is the track of the low once it is over upstate New York/Ontario Tuesday. A secondary low/remnants of the original remains over southern Ontario as the upper trough swings across the Great Lakes forming into a closed low. As this closure occurs, the trough undergoes negative tilting allowing for deepening in the secondary low. Solutions continue to show retrograde motion of the low taking it northwest through Ontario (there is still a fair amount of spread in the ensembles in the exact track of this). It appears this motion is the result of another closed upper low dropping south into the central Plains and interacting with the Great Lakes closed low causing a pivoting motion in both lows. Timing of all this is looking to be the second half of the day Tuesday into Wednesday. This deepening brings in or keeps, depending on the model family, the deformation axis/trowal over SE MI as well as increasing snowfall rates. There is a wide variation in solutions on how long this axis resides over the region which is causing the majority of range in model forecast snow totals. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Tom said: 00z Euro....@ToledoWx...I mean, @FAR_Weather has eyes for being close to the epicenter of this early season winter storm... @Niko will fair well as well... I know there are some peeps in NW and N IN that chime on here every once in a while as well so I will comment on the LES set up as it looks great TBH for a long duration event. @indianajohn may be getting his first bout of snow of the season along with that other guy in NW IN (pardon me for not remembering his name). I'll take near a foot in a heartbeat, but tbh, if this thing stalls over Ontario, then, it has my area in heavy snow and wind till Wednesday. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 8 hours ago, jaster220 said: My high temp Monday is currently set at 36F but seems to drop to freezing by 4 pm. Let's see if these west trends are f'real. Last minute comeback? Possibly. At least now you stand the chance of getting some snow. Also, you might be in for some (bonus) LES as well. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 The NAM is more west and more energized. Caving to the Euro and Canadian. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Tom said: 00z Euro....@ToledoWx...I mean, @FAR_Weather has eyes for being close to the epicenter of this early season winter storm... @Niko will fair well as well... I know there are some peeps in NW and N IN that chime on here every once in a while as well so I will comment on the LES set up as it looks great TBH for a long duration event. @indianajohn may be getting his first bout of snow of the season along with that other guy in NW IN (pardon me for not remembering his name). Glad to see this isn't continuing to fizzle, but rather staging something of a comeback in the models. That's a nasty, nasty cut-off right thru mby tho between the haves to my east, and the have-nots to my west. What's being portrayed, and described in Niko's NOAA text is actually quite similar to the scenario that produced the Detroit early season big dog in '74. I figured being "the 70's" that it was a cold period, but looking at the historical data, the month of Nov was colder than the current one, but temps leading up to the storm, and even during the big storm were only marginally cold. So there's that. Personally, I'd given up on this being anything but more nuisance SN, so this thing is driving me nuts, lol. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 9 hours ago, jaster220 said: My high temp Monday is currently set at 36F but seems to drop to freezing by 4 pm. Let's see if these west trends are f'real. Last minute comeback? 1 hour ago, Niko said: Possibly. At least now you stand the chance of getting some snow. Also, you might be in for some (bonus) LES as well. 12z NAM agrees that my Monday high will be mid-30s but has colder air working into the system from the N and gets me to freezing by 1 pm. 850's are already plenty cold by then. Hoping it's onto something. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 12z NAM agrees that my Monday high will be mid-30s but has colder air working into the system from the N and gets me to freezing by 1 pm. 850's are already plenty cold by then. Hoping it's onto something. Amigo..its looking better and better for ya......and as more sampling happens today, ironing down the details will be getting a lot more simpler. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Niko said: Amigo..its looking better and better for ya......and as more sampling happens today, ironing down the details will be getting a lot more simpler. Thx bud. Yeah and even better for yby in SEMI. NAM shows the long tail of snow thrown back into the colder air with hours and hours of flakes flying. Still dumping on far SEMI at the end of it's run. Last night I was laughing at the TWC map that showed 6-12" over your way but maybe they weren't that far off after all. Staying tuned.. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 Jaster: Accu-Weather going big here..... "The storm is shaping up to bring a 6- to 12-inch (15- to 30-centimeter) snowfall from northern and western Ohio to southeastern Michigan and southwestern Ontario with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 18 inches The combination of falling temperatures, snow and increasing wind can create near-blizzard conditions in parts of Indiana, Ohio, southeastern Michigan and southern Ontario for a time during Monday night and Tuesday. Motorists traveling through these areas should be prepared for changing weather conditions. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 06z euro. Also west. @Niko@jaster220 Nice totals across the board 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Thx bud. Yeah and even better for yby in SEMI. NAM shows the long tail of snow thrown back into the colder air with hours and hours of flakes flying. Still dumping on far SEMI at the end of it's run. Last night I was laughing at the TWC map that showed 6-12" over your way but maybe they weren't that far off after all. Staying tuned.. Yep, NOAA mentioned this on their am package that it might stall and throw heavy amounts of snow and wind till Wednesday. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, whatitdo said: 06z euro. Also west. @Niko@jaster220 Nice totals across the board Serious bump-up on that from the EC. Doubles my highest earlier amounts. Hoping models aren't going to say "oops" a 2nd time on this thing. That'd be a kick to the junk. Gonna remain skeptical after what they pulled on me before, lol 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Serious bump-up on that from the EC. Doubles my highest earlier amounts. Hoping models aren't going to say "oops" a 2nd time on this thing. That'd be a kick to the junk. Gonna remain skeptical after what they pulled on me before, lol hahahah same. I think the key is to also pay attention to NWS office and what they suspect. Naturally their totals are probably half of what is shown here but they are experts for a reason 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, whatitdo said: hahahah same. I think the key is to also pay attention to NWS office and what they suspect. Naturally their totals are probably half of what is shown here but they are experts for a reason Last night GRR's guy was "meh, SEMI storm". We'll see if they are any more enthusiastic with today's runs. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 This snowstorm will have a tremendous amount of wind w it..... 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 EURO Looks good. A foot for my area. Jaster you are looking good as well. You are a hair away from heavy snow. Very sharp cut-off line. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 That's the GDPS. Euro is about half those totals 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Last night GRR's guy was "meh, SEMI storm". We'll see if they are any more enthusiastic with today's runs. Judging by today's 12z euro he's right haha; further east the better for snow totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 12z Euro 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 12z Euro with another look... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 12z EPS...looking good for DTX & CLE... 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: Last night GRR's guy was "meh, SEMI storm". We'll see if they are any more enthusiastic with today's runs. 1 hour ago, whatitdo said: Judging by today's 12z euro he's right haha; further east the better for snow totals Yeah, was hoping the 12z would follow that 6z you posted earlier. GRR was a copy-n-paste AFD, but IWX was already kinda bullish with their overnight: Quote .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 347 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 Wintry weather is ahead for early next week with the potential remaining for a winter storm. At this time, precipitation is expected to develop Sunday night ahead of a strong upper level system and associated surface low pressure area. A very strong reflection of this system was apparent over central New Mexico early this morning. At this time, the system was cut off from the northern stream, but will drift east later today and phase with the northern stream by late Sunday. While most models support a surface low track from West Virginia to west PA, upstream interactions/fujiwhara may allow a more west track bringing the deformation zone and associated snowfall farther west into northern Indiana. Have continued to increase snow chances and amounts over northwest Ohio where accumulating snow can be expected. Thermal profiles indicate the precipitation will be all snow by early Monday and will stay all snow for the duration of the event. Continued with high confidence of lake effect snow developing and persisting for some time with a favorable long-axis lake fetch with delta T values generally 15C to 18C. Have raised snow amounts over Laporte and Starke counties to nearly 6 inches. It appears headlines will be eventually needed from the southwest corner of far southern Lower Michigan down to about Knox and possibly farther east. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 CPC yesterday's call had me riding the hvy snow line. Niko looks solid 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 18z NAM features an improved "retrograde curling" of the SLP versus 12z. Keeps me in on/off flakes for 42 hours and is still going at EOR. That alone would be wild 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 18z NAM features an improved "retrograde curling" of the SLP versus 12z. Keeps me in on/off flakes for 42 hours and is still going at EOR. That alone would be wild Insane amount of hours snowing! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 Here ya go Jaster.... 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 9 hours ago, Tom said: 00z Euro....@ToledoWx...I mean, @FAR_Weather has eyes for being close to the epicenter of this early season winter storm... @Niko will fair well as well... I know there are some peeps in NW and N IN that chime on here every once in a while as well so I will comment on the LES set up as it looks great TBH for a long duration event. @indianajohn may be getting his first bout of snow of the season along with that other guy in NW IN (pardon me for not remembering his name). I might not get in the on LES action... Just like LES in Chicago it has to be an ideal set up for all of Lake County, Indiana to get anything significant. eastern Lake county and Porter Counties looking like they might get some action. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 28, 2020 Report Share Posted November 28, 2020 Warm system. Warm ground. Cut all totals by at least half. Congrats to the east side though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 2 hours ago, indianajohn said: I might not get in the on LES action... Just like LES in Chicago it has to be an ideal set up for all of Lake County, Indiana to get anything significant. eastern Lake county and Porter Counties looking like they might get some action. Hello My thinking is at least 1-2" for Lake county (especially along/east of Indianapolis Boulevard but possibly back to the IL/IN state line). Then more like 3-5" or maybe 6" in Porter/LaPorte... with a smaller chance of that in eastern Lake county if the winds are favorable enough for long enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 18z EURO 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 36 minutes ago, Niko said: 18z EURO Looks like you are in the right spot! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 2 hours ago, Niko said: 18z EURO Certainly a bit west and stronger than it's 12z counterpart. Really, that's not a small snow shield at all, it's just frustratingly 1/2 a state (or less for my benefit) east of where I was hoping for, and where things started roughly 5 days ago when the Euro flashed a 978 mb SLP just east of Detroit. Still, with these scenarios, cannot completely rule out a last minute tick or two west via better phase action. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 52 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Certainly a bit west and stronger than it's 12z counterpart. Really, that's not a small snow shield at all, it's just frustratingly 1/2 a state (or less for my benefit) east of where I was hoping for, and where things started roughly 5 days ago when the Euro flashed a 978 mb SLP just east of Detroit. Still, with these scenarios, cannot completely rule out a last minute tick or two west via better phase action. Absolutely. Being on the dividing-line of hvy snow and light snow can be veryyyy frustrating, but as you say in your post above, there is always a chance it could make that westward move even more and I think there is a possibility that happens as the low retrogrades in southern Ontario. I would not be surprise if by tomorrow, it goes more west. Models are now starting to get an idea of what is going to happen, especially by tomorrow.. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 2 hours ago, Clinton said: Looks like you are in the right spot! Hopefully amigo! Looks good as of now. Someone in SEMI is in for a lot of snow. Hopefully our friend Jaster can get into the hvy snows as well. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 The 0z GFS is much further west. Here ya go Jaster. I think the storm is in far eastern Ohio to western, PA. WOW! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, Niko said: The 0z GFS is much further west. Here ya go Jaster. I think the storm is in far eastern Ohio to western, PA. WOW! The 0z gfS is much further east. Barely clips Detroit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 0z NAM did NOT go east, but not sure it went west either without comparing closely. Net result, I'm still on the edge of the better stuff. Very little difference between SLR and KCH here in the Mitt where temps get to 32F fairly quick, but south, especially OH the Kuchera map is a good illustration of how much is lost due to warm air combined with ground temps. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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