Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Definitely a slight westward trend with the snow swath per the last 3 NAM runs. Can it continue?? Also want to acknowledge that this is NOT a 2"/hr thump snow total, it's a long drawn-out snow shower. Tbh, not sure what to picture in my mind with this guy. Not much comes to mind for comparison in my personal experience. All I know is, it will look and feel a lot more like winter than autumn. I could see elevated surfaces accumulating decently, while pavement struggles to even get coated. My back deck can drift with the right wind direction and I may end up needing a shovel there. Elsewhere? Idk 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Definitely a slight westward trend with the snow swath per the last 3 NAM runs. Can it continue?? Also want to acknowledge that this is NOT a 2"/hr thump snow total, it's a long drawn-out snow shower. Tbh, not sure what to picture in my mind with this guy. Not much comes to mind for comparison in my personal experience. All I know is, it will look and feel a lot more like winter than autumn. I could see elevated surfaces accumulating decently, while pavement struggles to even get coated. My back deck can drift with the right wind direction and I may end up needing a shovel there. Elsewhere? Idk Yep...the westward movement clearly shows. Mild weather tomorrow could affect accumulations on Monday, especially early, b4 accumulating as nighttime nears. Also, as the snow gets heavier and colder air wraps around, Monday nite into Tues is when the main action looks to be here for any real accumulations. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 18 minutes ago, Niko said: Yep...the westward movement clearly shows. Mild weather tomorrow could affect accumulations on Monday, especially early, b4 accumulating as nighttime nears. Also, as the snow gets heavier and colder air wraps around, Monday nite into Tues is when the main action looks to be here for any real accumulations. I have early season benefit being in the center of the Mitt away from any lake influence. The NAM's been pretty accurate for past events here wrt to temps. The latest run has the region already down to freezing sometime between 7 am and 10 am Monday morning, with a 10 am WC of 20F. That's gonna feel nasty presuming there'll be snow flying into the face. Brrr 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I have early season benefit being in the center of the Mitt away from any lake influence. The NAM's been pretty accurate for past events here wrt to temps. The latest run has the region already down to freezing sometime between 7 am and 10 am Monday morning, with a 10 am WC of 20F. That's gonna feel nasty presuming there'll be snow flying into the face. Brrr Biting Chill! Not a big fan of wind hitting my face, but I'll accept it, if it comes w snow! I gotta admit, the part I hate most is when you are at the beach and sand hits your face during windy conditions and "Especially" when sand goes inside your mouth...UGH! Btw: Wcf will be a huge factor as the storm nears. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 00z Euro shifted east Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Ouch! Huge step backwards on that Euro run. Seems to go back and forth. Can't make it's mind up. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Tidbit on the 1950 mega-storm. Quote Interestingly, a group of researchers led by NOAA’s Robert Kistler carried out a retroactive forecast of the 1950 storm in 2000 and found evidence that “this historic storm was actually quite predictable.” As reported in the February 2001 issue of BAMS, “The rather high predictability of this historic storm is confirmed by the fact that all forecasts with lead times from 4.5 days to 1 day verifying on the same day show good agreement in its prediction.” One can only imagine the hype a storm as extreme as this one would generate if it were to arrive today with four days of advance notice! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Ouch...00z EPS has shifted E along with the rest of the model trends... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 1-3" or 2-4" off the lake thus afternoon and tonight...a great welcome to the north! Lake just locked up last night 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, Madtown said: 1-3" or 2-4" off the lake thus afternoon and tonight...a great welcome to the north! Lake just locked up last night I believe you posted this in the wrong thread! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Just now, Niko said: I believe you posted this in the wrong thread! It's a part of the storm. Thats where the NNW winds and added moisture are coming from 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Looks like 12z suite this far (GFS,NAM,RDPS) continuing the trend of weaker and E. 2-4 event for SEMI, the "mistake by the lake" (Cleveland and Ernest Byner- if you get that you can date my age) is golden. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Doesn't take too much to be a notable storm for Ohio, especially this early. But it won't be such for any of our regular posters. Turned into a nothingburger for mby. Hopefully not a trend for our season. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Aside from some LES in NW IN, most of W MI misses out on this run and clobbers CLE... @Nikodoes alright... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 40 minutes ago, Tom said: Aside from some LES in NW IN, most of W MI misses out on this run and clobbers CLE... @Nikodoes alright... I'll take 7" and run w it as fast as possible. Not too shabby at all. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 Accu-Weather's thinking on this storm: A rapidly developing and fast-moving storm is poised to bring heavy snow and wind to parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and southern Appalachian regions. Enough snow to shovel and plow is in store for Cleveland, Akron, Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus and Toledo, Ohio; Indianapolis and Fort Wayne, Indiana; Detroit, Flint and Ann Arbor, Michigan; Erie, Pennsylvania and Toronto and London, Ontario. Several inches of snow can pile up over the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians with a few inches over parts of middle Tennessee, central Kentucky and Indiana. Snow amounts will trend upward across Ohio, West Virginia, western Pennsylvania, southern Ontario and southeastern Michigan. Note: To sum it all up, the further east you are, the more snow you will receive w this storm. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2020 Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: Doesn't take too much to be a notable storm for Ohio, especially this early. But it won't be such for any of our regular posters. Turned into a nothingburger for mby. Hopefully not a trend for our season. Yep...too far east for ya to get anything appreciable, but don't forget, you will still get some light snow accumulation in yby, just not the hvy stuff. You on the other hand, could get some beneficial LES as well, so that is something to look forward to. Finally, this storm could still go west a bit. Plenty of room for that to happen. Hang in there amigo. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2020 3 hours ago, Niko said: Yep...too far east for ya to get anything appreciable, but don't forget, you will still get some light snow accumulation in yby, just not the hvy stuff. You on the other hand, could get some beneficial LES as well, so that is something to look forward to. Finally, this storm could still go west a bit. Plenty of room for that to happen. Hang in there amigo. Sure, it'll be a "taste of winter" here at some point but I've pretty much punted this storm, this next week, and maybe most of December. It's not just a matter of this one going dud here either. We are about to put wraps on Met autumn and did not get one single stratiform soaker type storm the entire 3 months. The only real defo action that comes to mind was last Sunday's system that was not only warm here, but paltry in qpf. The system was just getting it's act together as it came through this region. Not like we've had heavy precip makers that simply lacked BN temps to make them winter storms. There's more at play than that. 9 years ago this evening, even 2011 delivered an 8.5" pound-town event here. Also, NMI continues what is now a mounting snow deficit despite one or multiple Euro runs flashing feet of snowfall. As somebody out west posted (mlgamer?) we've had a massive winter via 156 hr snowfall maps. After a promising October run of cold connecting with moisture, everything since has been the opposite. On a positive note, we did have a gorgeous autumn day with the clouds from the approaching system and 50F temps. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you're still scoring a decent snow from this but I see they still are hesitant to hoist an actual headline for SEMI. I'm just going to expect the usual leading up to Christmas, some dustings and a chilly day or two. I'll remain skeptical of any pattern shift until I see it and can feel it, lol. Good luck over there! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Sure, it'll be a "taste of winter" here at some point but I've pretty much punted this storm, this next week, and maybe most of December. It's not just a matter of this one going dud here either. We are about to put wraps on Met autumn and did not get one single stratiform soaker type storm the entire 3 months. The only real defo action that comes to mind was last Sunday's system that was not only warm here, but paltry in qpf. The system was just getting it's act together as it came through this region. Not like we've had heavy precip makers that simply lacked BN temps to make them winter storms. There's more at play than that. 9 years ago this evening, even 2011 delivered an 8.5" pound-town event here. Also, NMI continues what is now a mounting snow deficit despite one or multiple Euro runs flashing feet of snowfall. As somebody out west posted (mlgamer?) we've had a massive winter via 156 hr snowfall maps. After a promising October run of cold connecting with moisture, everything since has been the opposite. On a positive note, we did have a gorgeous autumn day with the clouds from the approaching system and 50F temps. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you're still scoring a decent snow from this but I see they still are hesitant to hoist an actual headline for SEMI. I'm just going to expect the usual leading up to Christmas, some dustings and a chilly day or two. I'll remain skeptical of any pattern shift until I see it and can feel it, lol. Good luck over there! This could have been big, but did not work out that way unfortunately. Thank goodness is only November and not January or February Tbh: whatever snow I get tomorrow and Tuesday will be a bonus for this time of the year. Dont forget, its still end of November. Also, I noticed that NOAA posted no headline as well. Maybe they are waiting to decide w the 4am package. So far, I am in the 3-5inch Category, which poses a WWA at least and to top it all off, I was not even added a "Hazardous Outlook" at all, for inclement weather possible. Very bad on their end. So many people working there need to get fired! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 GRR NWS: .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 316 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020 -- Snow Potential for Southeast Lower Michigan Monday into Tuesday -- Two potential storms may have at least peripheral effects for southwest Lower Michigan, one early in the week and another next weekend. The track of the surface low on Monday and Tuesday across eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania will keep the deformation axis and best f-gen forcing across central Ohio and southeast Lower Michigan on Monday lingering into Tuesday as a trowal persists across the eastern Great Lakes. Lake enhanced snow showers in northwest flow will be affecting the southwest forecast area during this time as well. So POPs Monday into Tuesday will be highest across the SE zones especially Jackson County, along with the SW zones especially Van Buren County. Accumulations and impacts in our forecast area should be low as the stronger mesoscale snow bands are expected to remain off to the east of the forecast area where the best mid level F-gen will be, while the heavier lake effect bands remain to the southwest, across Berrien County and northern Indiana. The storm pulls away Tuesday night while our attention turns to a low cutting off across the Southern Plains. -- Lowering chances for a Big Storm next weekend -- The Southern Plains low is now trending to move along the Gulf Coast and take longer to phase with a northern stream low. This greater separation and slower phasing means the bulk of the heavier precipitation remains south and east of Lower Michigan. There could still be some light snow or snow showers as the northern stream low moves through late in the weekend, but this is looking like less of a significant storm for Lower Michigan. && You in the right spot thus far @Niko this winter! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 May not belong in right thread but tell me @jaster220 how often in the winter months is there a potential snowfall threat to track in SW Michigan? Like how many snow events a month is common here I guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, whatitdo said: May not belong in right thread but tell me @jaster220 how often in the winter months is there a potential snowfall threat to track in SW Michigan? Like how many snow events a month is common here I guess It runs the gamut really. I keep track of the number of plow-worthy events (generally 3+") which could come from synoptic and/or LES. I consider the avg to be 5/season, but for Kzoo I'd add another 50% so 7-8. In a really active (good) winter which I've seen numerous in the past 2 decades, Kzoo can see 15+ headline events (WWA or better). On a side note, it is still early and while there have been cold-n-snowy Novembers they are far from a sure thing and the low avg snowfall for the month indicates that most Novembers pass without much if any real snows. Hope that helps. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: It runs the gamut really. I keep track of the number of plow-worthy events (generally 3+") which could come from synoptic and/or LES. I consider the avg to be 5/season, but for Kzoo I'd add another 50% so 7-8. In a really active (good) winter which I've seen numerous in the past 2 decades, Kzoo can see 15+ headline events (WWA or better). On a side note, it is still early and while there have been cold-n-snowy Novembers they are far from a sure thing and the low avg snowfall for the month indicates that most Novembers pass without much if any real snows. Hope that helps. yessir it does. 7-8 3 inch plus events would be very welcomed. That's like 2 a month from december to march. Hope it pans out. I feel like bad luck sometimes don't want south busts to follow me haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Jaster-- 0z NAM came in a bit west and stronger as well. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 37 minutes ago, Niko said: Jaster-- 0z NAM came in a bit west and stronger as well. I'm riding the 1" line on most maps. Did it change that? And just how does one stretch 1" over 30 hrs anyways? The fraction/hr rate would make pixie dust look like +SN. Went from models showing 15+ inches here, to 1. Maybe, lol. Just not finding any way to polish this turd, sorry bud. Still hope you make out ok with your 2-5". 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 37 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I'm riding the 1" line on most maps. Did it change that? And just how does one stretch 1" over 30 hrs anyways? The fraction/hr rate would make pixie dust look like +SN. Went from models showing 15+ inches here, to 1. Maybe, lol. Just not finding any way to polish this turd, sorry bud. Still hope you make out ok with your 2-5". Wait till tomorrow. Maybe some changes can happen. Thanks amigo....hopefully. 4-7" is just to my north, so a lot can change from now until tomorrow. This storms movement needs to be watched for any adjustments. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 My totals creeped up to near 5-6" 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 06z Euro...potential is there for a historic snowfall in OH and targeting CLE.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 It's been years since I can recall a snow forecast like this in early Dec for OH, heck, even for the last 5 or more winter seasons! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 agree with Tom- something that I haven't seen in sometime. What makes this situation unique for OH / PA is not either synoptic or lake effect- it's BOTH. Rarely do I remember something like this so early in the year. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 WWA posted for my area Radar looks sweet!!! 1 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Currently snowing w temps already falling to near 33F. Everything getting snow covered. Honestly, the rain changed over to snow a lot quicker than expected. 2 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, Niko said: Currently snowing w temps already falling to near 33F. Everything getting snow covered. Honestly, the rain changed over to snow a lot quicker than expected. nowcast, judging by radar, you might do quite well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Stacsh said: nowcast, judging by radar, you might do quite well. Yep...that is what I am thinking as well. Accumulations could boost higher as the day progresses. Snow is ripping outside (huge flakes) and the wind is howling as well. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Updated snowfall map: 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Tom said: It's been years since I can recall a snow forecast like this in early Dec for OH, heck, even for the last 5 or more winter seasons! I stayed downtown CLE on business a couple years back (Mar '19). Looks like the lakeshore warmth (hello Chicago) will preclude the city proper from major totals, but yeah, the inland regions look to do well. This is still potentially historic, just disappointingly not for our Sub. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2020 Report Share Posted November 30, 2020 Real busy w zoom meetings today, but real quick: I am getting wind gusts to 36mph, sustained at 26mph. Current radar looks loaded w moisture and its snowing sideways. Real action starts later today into all of tanite and all of Tuesday and finally Tuesday nite. Dam, long duration! Have a feeling accumulations will go up. Currently in the 4-6inch projection line. We will see how all this plays out and will try to post wintry pics when this storm departs. 2 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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