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Nov 30-Dec 2 OHV/Eastern GL's possibly historic snowstorm.


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4 minutes ago, Niko said:

Amigo..its looking better and better for ya......and as more sampling happens today, ironing down the details will be getting a lot more simpler.

Thx bud. Yeah and even better for yby in SEMI.

NAM shows the long tail of snow thrown back into the colder air with hours and hours of flakes flying. Still dumping on far SEMI at the end of it's run. Last night I was laughing at the TWC map that showed 6-12" over your way but maybe they weren't that far off after all. Staying tuned..

 

342079439_20201128NAM12zSurfLooph45-84.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Detroit so far received 3" Its all snow covered outside and what a way to welcome December. Currently this:   Light Snow and Low Drifting Snow 27°F  

Places just south of CLE already with a foot of snow OTG...what an incredible way to open up Winter for them folks!    

I think it's a matter of exactly when/where/who scores the most snow from this impending storm. As I understand it, the UL wave came onshore in Cali last night and that ingest may have been the reason

Posted Images

Jaster:

Accu-Weather going big here.....

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/page-15-4.jpg?w=632

"The storm is shaping up to bring a 6- to 12-inch (15- to 30-centimeter) snowfall from northern and western Ohio to southeastern Michigan and southwestern Ontario with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 18 inches

The combination of falling temperatures, snow and increasing wind can create near-blizzard conditions in parts of Indiana, Ohio, southeastern Michigan and southern Ontario for a time during Monday night and Tuesday. Motorists traveling through these areas should be prepared for changing weather conditions.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx bud. Yeah and even better for yby in SEMI.

NAM shows the long tail of snow thrown back into the colder air with hours and hours of flakes flying. Still dumping on far SEMI at the end of it's run. Last night I was laughing at the TWC map that showed 6-12" over your way but maybe they weren't that far off after all. Staying tuned..

 

342079439_20201128NAM12zSurfLooph45-84.gif

Yep, NOAA mentioned this on their am package that it might stall and throw heavy amounts of snow and wind till Wednesday.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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  • jaster220 changed the title to Nov 30-Dec 2 potentially historic OHV/GL's snowstorm. Kick-off winter with a BANG??
10 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

06z euro. Also west. @Niko@jaster220

Nice totals across the board
 

image.thumb.png.aedcf8acb796935751564ea72b8d7fdd.png

Serious bump-up on that from the EC. Doubles my highest earlier amounts. Hoping models aren't going to say "oops" a 2nd time on this thing. That'd be a kick to the junk. Gonna remain skeptical after what they pulled on me before, lol

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Serious bump-up on that from the EC. Doubles my highest earlier amounts. Hoping models aren't going to say "oops" a 2nd time on this thing. That'd be a kick to the junk. Gonna remain skeptical after what they pulled on me before, lol

hahahah same. I think the key is to also pay attention to NWS office and what they suspect. Naturally their totals are probably half of what is shown here but they are experts for a reason

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1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

hahahah same. I think the key is to also pay attention to NWS office and what they suspect. Naturally their totals are probably half of what is shown here but they are experts for a reason

Last night GRR's guy was "meh, SEMI storm". We'll see if they are any more enthusiastic with today's runs.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12z Euro

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Last night GRR's guy was "meh, SEMI storm". We'll see if they are any more enthusiastic with today's runs.

 

1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

Judging by today's 12z euro he's right haha; further east the better for snow totals

Yeah, was hoping the 12z would follow that 6z you posted earlier. GRR was a copy-n-paste AFD, but IWX was already kinda bullish with their overnight:

Quote

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

Wintry weather is ahead for early next week with the potential
remaining for a winter storm. At this time, precipitation is
expected to develop Sunday night ahead of a strong upper level
system and associated surface low pressure area. A very strong
reflection of this system was apparent over central New Mexico
early this morning. At this time, the system was cut off from the
northern stream, but will drift east later today and phase with
the northern stream by late Sunday. While most models support a
surface low track from West Virginia to west PA, upstream
interactions/fujiwhara may allow a more west track bringing the
deformation zone and associated snowfall farther west into
northern Indiana. Have continued to increase snow chances and
amounts over northwest Ohio where accumulating snow can be
expected. Thermal profiles indicate the precipitation will be all
snow by early Monday and will stay all snow for the duration of
the event. Continued with high confidence of lake effect snow
developing and persisting for some time with a favorable long-axis
lake fetch with delta T values generally 15C to 18C. Have raised
snow amounts over Laporte and Starke counties to nearly 6 inches.
It appears headlines will be eventually needed from the southwest
corner of far southern Lower Michigan down to about Knox and
possibly farther east.

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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CPC yesterday's call had me riding the hvy snow line. Niko looks solid

 

20201127 CPC hazards_d3_7_contours.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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18z NAM features an improved "retrograde curling" of the SLP versus 12z. Keeps me in on/off flakes for 42 hours and is still going at EOR. That alone would be wild

 

271607281_20201128NAM18zSurfLooph42-84.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

18z NAM features an improved "retrograde curling" of the SLP versus 12z. Keeps me in on/off flakes for 42 hours and is still going at EOR. That alone would be wild

 

271607281_20201128NAM18zSurfLooph42-84.gif

Insane amount of hours snowing!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro....@ToledoWx...I mean, @FAR_Weather has eyes for being close to the epicenter of this early season winter storm... @Niko will fair well as well...

 

1.png

 

 

I know there are some peeps in NW and N IN that chime on here every once in a while as well so I will comment on the LES set up as it looks great TBH for a long duration event.  @indianajohn may be getting his first bout of snow of the season along with that other guy in NW IN (pardon me for not remembering his name).

2.png

 

I might not get in the on LES action... Just like LES in Chicago it has to be an ideal set up for all of Lake County, Indiana to get anything significant. eastern Lake county and Porter Counties looking like they might get some action.

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2 hours ago, indianajohn said:

 

I might not get in the on LES action... Just like LES in Chicago it has to be an ideal set up for all of Lake County, Indiana to get anything significant. eastern Lake county and Porter Counties looking like they might get some action.

Hello

My thinking is at least 1-2" for Lake county (especially along/east of Indianapolis Boulevard but possibly back to the IL/IN state line).  Then more like 3-5" or maybe 6" in Porter/LaPorte... with a smaller chance of that in eastern Lake county if the winds are favorable enough for long enough.

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

18z EURO

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_11/58006A72-AE9D-4634-8F01-D83A81C9E495.thumb.png.246fb3ffeabca3b86abc6ef0b4fac449.png

 

Certainly a bit west and stronger than it's 12z counterpart. Really, that's not a small snow shield at all, it's just frustratingly 1/2 a state (or less for my benefit) east of where I was hoping for, and where things started roughly 5 days ago when the Euro flashed a 978 mb SLP just east of Detroit. Still, with these scenarios, cannot completely rule out a last minute tick or two west via better phase action.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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52 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Certainly a bit west and stronger than it's 12z counterpart. Really, that's not a small snow shield at all, it's just frustratingly 1/2 a state (or less for my benefit) east of where I was hoping for, and where things started roughly 5 days ago when the Euro flashed a 978 mb SLP just east of Detroit. Still, with these scenarios, cannot completely rule out a last minute tick or two west via better phase action.

Absolutely. 

Being on the dividing-line of hvy snow and light snow can be veryyyy frustrating, but as you say in your post above, there is always a chance it could make that westward move even more and I think there is a possibility that happens as the low retrogrades in southern Ontario.  

I would not be surprise if by tomorrow, it goes more west. Models are now starting to get an idea of what is going to happen, especially by tomorrow..

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like you are in the right spot!

Hopefully amigo! Looks good as of now. Someone in SEMI is in for a lot of snow. Hopefully our friend Jaster can get into the hvy snows as well.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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0z NAM did NOT go east, but not sure it went west either without comparing closely. Net result, I'm still on the edge of the better stuff. Very little difference between SLR and KCH here in the Mitt where temps get to 32F fairly quick, but south, especially OH the Kuchera map is a good illustration of how much is lost due to warm air combined with ground temps.

 

 

20201129 NAM 0z h84 Snow SLR.png

20201129 NAM 0z h84 Snow KCH.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Definitely a slight westward trend with the snow swath per the last 3 NAM runs. Can it continue?? Also want to acknowledge that this is NOT a 2"/hr thump snow total, it's a long drawn-out snow shower. Tbh, not sure what to picture in my mind with this guy. Not much comes to mind for comparison in my personal experience. All I know is, it will look and feel a lot more like winter than autumn. I could see elevated surfaces accumulating decently, while pavement struggles to even get coated. My back deck can drift with the right wind direction and I may end up needing a shovel there. Elsewhere? Idk

 

20201129 NAM 0z KCH Snow h84 trend.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Definitely a slight westward trend with the snow swath per the last 3 NAM runs. Can it continue?? Also want to acknowledge that this is NOT a 2"/hr thump snow total, it's a long drawn-out snow shower. Tbh, not sure what to picture in my mind with this guy. Not much comes to mind for comparison in my personal experience. All I know is, it will look and feel a lot more like winter than autumn. I could see elevated surfaces accumulating decently, while pavement struggles to even get coated. My back deck can drift with the right wind direction and I may end up needing a shovel there. Elsewhere? Idk

 

20201129 NAM 0z KCH Snow h84 trend.gif

Yep...the westward movement clearly shows. Mild weather tomorrow could affect accumulations on Monday, especially early, b4 accumulating as nighttime nears. Also, as the snow gets heavier and colder air wraps around, Monday nite into Tues is when the main action looks to be here for any real accumulations.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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18 minutes ago, Niko said:

Yep...the westward movement clearly shows. Mild weather tomorrow could affect accumulations on Monday, especially early, b4 accumulating as nighttime nears. Also, as the snow gets heavier and colder air wraps around, Monday nite into Tues is when the main action looks to be here for any real accumulations.

I have early season benefit being in the center of the Mitt away from any lake influence. The NAM's been pretty accurate for past events here wrt to temps. The latest run has the region already down to freezing sometime between 7 am and 10 am Monday morning, with a 10 am WC of 20F. That's gonna feel nasty presuming there'll be snow flying into the face. Brrr

 

20201129 NAM 0z h39 2m temp.png

20201129 NAM 0z h39 2m Windchill.png

  • Snow 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I have early season benefit being in the center of the Mitt away from any lake influence. The NAM's been pretty accurate for past events here wrt to temps. The latest run has the region already down to freezing sometime between 7 am and 10 am Monday morning, with a 10 am WC of 20F. That's gonna feel nasty presuming there'll be snow flying into the face. Brrr

 

20201129 NAM 0z h39 2m temp.png

20201129 NAM 0z h39 2m Windchill.png

Biting Chill! Not a big fan of wind hitting my face, but I'll accept it, if it comes w snow! I gotta admit, the part I hate most is when you are at the beach and sand hits your face during windy conditions and "Especially" when sand goes inside your mouth...UGH!

Btw: Wcf will be a huge factor as the storm nears.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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00z Euro shifted east

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ouch!  Huge step backwards on that Euro run. Seems to go back and forth. Can't make it's mind up.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Tidbit on the 1950 mega-storm.

Quote

Interestingly, a group of researchers led by NOAA’s Robert Kistler carried out a retroactive forecast of the 1950 storm in 2000 and found evidence that “this historic storm was actually quite predictable.” As reported in the February 2001 issue of BAMS, “The rather high predictability of this historic storm is confirmed by the fact that all forecasts with lead times from 4.5 days to 1 day verifying on the same day show good agreement in its prediction.” One can only imagine the hype a storm as extreme as this one would generate if it were to arrive today with four days of advance notice!

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12 minutes ago, Madtown said:

1-3" or 2-4" off the lake thus afternoon and tonight...a great welcome to the north! Lake just locked up last night

16066590521738066351272871424486.jpg

I believe you posted this in the wrong thread!

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Looks like 12z suite this far (GFS,NAM,RDPS) continuing the trend of weaker and E. 2-4 event for SEMI, the "mistake by the lake" (Cleveland and Ernest Byner- if you get that you can date my age) is golden.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Doesn't take too much to be a notable storm for Ohio, especially this early. But it won't be such for any of our regular posters. Turned into a nothingburger for mby. Hopefully not a trend for our season.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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  • jaster220 changed the title to Nov 30-Dec 2 potential OHV/GL's snowstorm. Kick-off winter with a dud.
40 minutes ago, Tom said:

Aside from some LES in NW IN, most of W MI misses out on this run and clobbers CLE... @Nikodoes alright...

 

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I'll take 7" and run w it as fast as possible. Not too shabby at all. 👍

  • Snow 3

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Accu-Weather's thinking on this storm:

 

 

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/MonSnap29Nov10a.jpg?w=632

 

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/TuesSnap29Nov10a.jpg?w=632

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SnowFallMap29Nov11a.jpg?w=632

A rapidly developing and fast-moving storm is poised to bring heavy snow and wind to parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and southern Appalachian regions. Enough snow to shovel and plow is in store for Cleveland, Akron, Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus and Toledo, Ohio; Indianapolis and Fort Wayne, Indiana; Detroit, Flint and Ann Arbor, Michigan; Erie, Pennsylvania and Toronto and London, Ontario. Several inches of snow can pile up over the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians with a few inches over parts of middle Tennessee, central Kentucky and Indiana. Snow amounts will trend upward across Ohio, West Virginia, western Pennsylvania, southern Ontario and southeastern Michigan.

Note: To sum it all up, the further east you are, the more snow you will receive w this storm.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Doesn't take too much to be a notable storm for Ohio, especially this early. But it won't be such for any of our regular posters. Turned into a nothingburger for mby. Hopefully not a trend for our season.

Yep...too far east for ya to get anything appreciable, but don't forget, you will still get some light snow accumulation in yby, just not the hvy stuff. You on the other hand, could get some beneficial LES as well, so that is something to look forward to. Finally, this storm could still go west a bit. Plenty of room for that to happen. Hang in there amigo.🙂

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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3 hours ago, Niko said:

Yep...too far east for ya to get anything appreciable, but don't forget, you will still get some light snow accumulation in yby, just not the hvy stuff. You on the other hand, could get some beneficial LES as well, so that is something to look forward to. Finally, this storm could still go west a bit. Plenty of room for that to happen. Hang in there amigo.🙂

Sure, it'll be a "taste of winter" here at some point but I've pretty much punted this storm, this next week, and maybe most of December. It's not just a matter of this one going dud here either. We are about to put wraps on Met autumn and did not get one single stratiform soaker type storm the entire 3 months. The only real defo action that comes to mind was last Sunday's system that was not only warm here, but paltry in qpf. The system was just getting it's act together as it came through this region. Not like we've had heavy precip makers that simply lacked BN temps to make them winter storms. There's more at play than that. 9 years ago this evening, even 2011 delivered an 8.5" pound-town event here. Also, NMI continues what is now a mounting snow deficit despite one or multiple Euro runs flashing feet of snowfall. As somebody out west posted (mlgamer?) we've had a massive winter via 156 hr snowfall maps. After a promising October run of cold connecting with moisture, everything since has been the opposite. On a positive note, we did have a gorgeous autumn day with the clouds from the approaching system and 50F temps. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you're still scoring a decent snow from this but I see they still are hesitant to hoist an actual headline for SEMI. I'm just going to expect the usual leading up to Christmas, some dustings and a chilly day or two. I'll remain skeptical of any pattern shift until I see it and can feel it, lol. Good luck over there!

  • Like 1

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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  • jaster220 changed the title to Nov 30-Dec 2 OHV/Eastern GL's possibly historic snowstorm.
  • Tom unpinned this topic

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