Nov 30-Dec 2 OHV/Eastern GL's possibly historic snowstorm.

[jaster220 8344]

4 minutes ago, Niko said:

Amigo..its looking better and better for ya......and as more sampling happens today, ironing down the details will be getting a lot more simpler.

Thx bud. Yeah and even better for yby in SEMI.

NAM shows the long tail of snow thrown back into the colder air with hours and hours of flakes flying. Still dumping on far SEMI at the end of it's run. Last night I was laughing at the TWC map that showed 6-12" over your way but maybe they weren't that far off after all. Staying tuned..

 

[Niko 7225]

Jaster:

Accu-Weather going big here.....

"The storm is shaping up to bring a 6- to 12-inch (15- to 30-centimeter) snowfall from northern and western Ohio to southeastern Michigan and southwestern Ontario with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 18 inches

The combination of falling temperatures, snow and increasing wind can create near-blizzard conditions in parts of Indiana, Ohio, southeastern Michigan and southern Ontario for a time during Monday night and Tuesday. Motorists traveling through these areas should be prepared for changing weather conditions.

[whatitdo 131]

06z euro. Also west. @Niko@jaster220

Nice totals across the board
 

[Niko 7225]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx bud. Yeah and even better for yby in SEMI.

NAM shows the long tail of snow thrown back into the colder air with hours and hours of flakes flying. Still dumping on far SEMI at the end of it's run. Last night I was laughing at the TWC map that showed 6-12" over your way but maybe they weren't that far off after all. Staying tuned..

 

Yep, NOAA mentioned this on their am package that it might stall and throw heavy amounts of snow and wind till Wednesday.

[jaster220 8344]

10 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

06z euro. Also west. @Niko@jaster220

Nice totals across the board
 

Serious bump-up on that from the EC. Doubles my highest earlier amounts. Hoping models aren't going to say "oops" a 2nd time on this thing. That'd be a kick to the junk. Gonna remain skeptical after what they pulled on me before, lol

[whatitdo 131]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Serious bump-up on that from the EC. Doubles my highest earlier amounts. Hoping models aren't going to say "oops" a 2nd time on this thing. That'd be a kick to the junk. Gonna remain skeptical after what they pulled on me before, lol

hahahah same. I think the key is to also pay attention to NWS office and what they suspect. Naturally their totals are probably half of what is shown here but they are experts for a reason

[jaster220 8344]

1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

hahahah same. I think the key is to also pay attention to NWS office and what they suspect. Naturally their totals are probably half of what is shown here but they are experts for a reason

Last night GRR's guy was "meh, SEMI storm". We'll see if they are any more enthusiastic with today's runs.

[Niko 7225]

This snowstorm will have a tremendous amount of wind w it.....

[Niko 7225]

EURO Looks good. A foot for my area. Jaster you are looking good as well. You are a hair away from heavy snow. Very sharp cut-off line.

[Grizzcoat 3790]

That's the GDPS. Euro is about half those totals

[whatitdo 131]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Last night GRR's guy was "meh, SEMI storm". We'll see if they are any more enthusiastic with today's runs.

Judging by today's 12z euro he's right haha; further east the better for snow totals

[Hawkeye 4600]

12z Euro

[Tom 16887]

12z Euro with another look...

 

 

[Tom 16887]

12z EPS...looking good for DTX & CLE...

[jaster220 8344]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Last night GRR's guy was "meh, SEMI storm". We'll see if they are any more enthusiastic with today's runs.

 

1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

Judging by today's 12z euro he's right haha; further east the better for snow totals

Yeah, was hoping the 12z would follow that 6z you posted earlier. GRR was a copy-n-paste AFD, but IWX was already kinda bullish with their overnight:

Quote

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

Wintry weather is ahead for early next week with the potential
remaining for a winter storm. At this time, precipitation is
expected to develop Sunday night ahead of a strong upper level
system and associated surface low pressure area. A very strong
reflection of this system was apparent over central New Mexico
early this morning. At this time, the system was cut off from the
northern stream, but will drift east later today and phase with
the northern stream by late Sunday. While most models support a
surface low track from West Virginia to west PA, upstream
interactions/fujiwhara may allow a more west track bringing the
deformation zone and associated snowfall farther west into
northern Indiana. Have continued to increase snow chances and
amounts over northwest Ohio where accumulating snow can be
expected. Thermal profiles indicate the precipitation will be all
snow by early Monday and will stay all snow for the duration of
the event. Continued with high confidence of lake effect snow
developing and persisting for some time with a favorable long-axis
lake fetch with delta T values generally 15C to 18C. Have raised
snow amounts over Laporte and Starke counties to nearly 6 inches.
It appears headlines will be eventually needed from the southwest
corner of far southern Lower Michigan down to about Knox and
possibly farther east.

 

[jaster220 8344]

CPC yesterday's call had me riding the hvy snow line. Niko looks solid

 

[jaster220 8344]

18z NAM features an improved "retrograde curling" of the SLP versus 12z. Keeps me in on/off flakes for 42 hours and is still going at EOR. That alone would be wild

 

[Niko 7225]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

18z NAM features an improved "retrograde curling" of the SLP versus 12z. Keeps me in on/off flakes for 42 hours and is still going at EOR. That alone would be wild

 

Insane amount of hours snowing!

[Niko 7225]

Here ya go Jaster....

 

[indianajohn 206]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro....@ToledoWx...I mean, @FAR_Weather has eyes for being close to the epicenter of this early season winter storm... @Niko will fair well as well...

 

 

 

I know there are some peeps in NW and N IN that chime on here every once in a while as well so I will comment on the LES set up as it looks great TBH for a long duration event.  @indianajohn may be getting his first bout of snow of the season along with that other guy in NW IN (pardon me for not remembering his name).

 

I might not get in the on LES action... Just like LES in Chicago it has to be an ideal set up for all of Lake County, Indiana to get anything significant. eastern Lake county and Porter Counties looking like they might get some action.

[tStacsh 70]

Warm system.  Warm ground.  Cut all totals by at least half.  Congrats to the east side though.  

[Hoosier 113]

2 hours ago, indianajohn said:

 

I might not get in the on LES action... Just like LES in Chicago it has to be an ideal set up for all of Lake County, Indiana to get anything significant. eastern Lake county and Porter Counties looking like they might get some action.

Hello

My thinking is at least 1-2" for Lake county (especially along/east of Indianapolis Boulevard but possibly back to the IL/IN state line).  Then more like 3-5" or maybe 6" in Porter/LaPorte... with a smaller chance of that in eastern Lake county if the winds are favorable enough for long enough.

[Niko 7225]

18z EURO

 

[Clinton 4431]

36 minutes ago, Niko said:

18z EURO

 

Looks like you are in the right spot!

[jaster220 8344]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

18z EURO

 

Certainly a bit west and stronger than it's 12z counterpart. Really, that's not a small snow shield at all, it's just frustratingly 1/2 a state (or less for my benefit) east of where I was hoping for, and where things started roughly 5 days ago when the Euro flashed a 978 mb SLP just east of Detroit. Still, with these scenarios, cannot completely rule out a last minute tick or two west via better phase action.

[Niko 7225]

52 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Certainly a bit west and stronger than it's 12z counterpart. Really, that's not a small snow shield at all, it's just frustratingly 1/2 a state (or less for my benefit) east of where I was hoping for, and where things started roughly 5 days ago when the Euro flashed a 978 mb SLP just east of Detroit. Still, with these scenarios, cannot completely rule out a last minute tick or two west via better phase action.

Absolutely. 

Being on the dividing-line of hvy snow and light snow can be veryyyy frustrating, but as you say in your post above, there is always a chance it could make that westward move even more and I think there is a possibility that happens as the low retrogrades in southern Ontario.  

I would not be surprise if by tomorrow, it goes more west. Models are now starting to get an idea of what is going to happen, especially by tomorrow..

[Niko 7225]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like you are in the right spot!

Hopefully amigo! Looks good as of now. Someone in SEMI is in for a lot of snow. Hopefully our friend Jaster can get into the hvy snows as well.

[Niko 7225]

The 0z GFS is much further west. Here ya go Jaster. I think the storm is in far eastern Ohio to western, PA. WOW!

[tStacsh 70]

4 minutes ago, Niko said:

The 0z GFS is much further west. Here ya go Jaster. I think the storm is in far eastern Ohio to western, PA. WOW!

The 0z gfS is much further east.   Barely clips Detroit.  

[jaster220 8344]

0z NAM did NOT go east, but not sure it went west either without comparing closely. Net result, I'm still on the edge of the better stuff. Very little difference between SLR and KCH here in the Mitt where temps get to 32F fairly quick, but south, especially OH the Kuchera map is a good illustration of how much is lost due to warm air combined with ground temps.

 

 

[Niko 7225]

[jaster220 8344]

Definitely a slight westward trend with the snow swath per the last 3 NAM runs. Can it continue?? Also want to acknowledge that this is NOT a 2"/hr thump snow total, it's a long drawn-out snow shower. Tbh, not sure what to picture in my mind with this guy. Not much comes to mind for comparison in my personal experience. All I know is, it will look and feel a lot more like winter than autumn. I could see elevated surfaces accumulating decently, while pavement struggles to even get coated. My back deck can drift with the right wind direction and I may end up needing a shovel there. Elsewhere? Idk

 

[Niko 7225]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Definitely a slight westward trend with the snow swath per the last 3 NAM runs. Can it continue?? Also want to acknowledge that this is NOT a 2"/hr thump snow total, it's a long drawn-out snow shower. Tbh, not sure what to picture in my mind with this guy. Not much comes to mind for comparison in my personal experience. All I know is, it will look and feel a lot more like winter than autumn. I could see elevated surfaces accumulating decently, while pavement struggles to even get coated. My back deck can drift with the right wind direction and I may end up needing a shovel there. Elsewhere? Idk

 

Yep...the westward movement clearly shows. Mild weather tomorrow could affect accumulations on Monday, especially early, b4 accumulating as nighttime nears. Also, as the snow gets heavier and colder air wraps around, Monday nite into Tues is when the main action looks to be here for any real accumulations.

[jaster220 8344]

18 minutes ago, Niko said:

Yep...the westward movement clearly shows. Mild weather tomorrow could affect accumulations on Monday, especially early, b4 accumulating as nighttime nears. Also, as the snow gets heavier and colder air wraps around, Monday nite into Tues is when the main action looks to be here for any real accumulations.

I have early season benefit being in the center of the Mitt away from any lake influence. The NAM's been pretty accurate for past events here wrt to temps. The latest run has the region already down to freezing sometime between 7 am and 10 am Monday morning, with a 10 am WC of 20F. That's gonna feel nasty presuming there'll be snow flying into the face. Brrr

 

[Niko 7225]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I have early season benefit being in the center of the Mitt away from any lake influence. The NAM's been pretty accurate for past events here wrt to temps. The latest run has the region already down to freezing sometime between 7 am and 10 am Monday morning, with a 10 am WC of 20F. That's gonna feel nasty presuming there'll be snow flying into the face. Brrr

 

Biting Chill! Not a big fan of wind hitting my face, but I'll accept it, if it comes w snow! I gotta admit, the part I hate most is when you are at the beach and sand hits your face during windy conditions and "Especially" when sand goes inside your mouth...UGH!

Btw: Wcf will be a huge factor as the storm nears.

[Hawkeye 4600]

00z Euro shifted east

[jaster220 8344]

Ouch!  Huge step backwards on that Euro run. Seems to go back and forth. Can't make it's mind up.

[jaster220 8344]

Tidbit on the 1950 mega-storm.

Quote

Interestingly, a group of researchers led by NOAA’s Robert Kistler carried out a retroactive forecast of the 1950 storm in 2000 and found evidence that “this historic storm was actually quite predictable.” As reported in the February 2001 issue of BAMS, “The rather high predictability of this historic storm is confirmed by the fact that all forecasts with lead times from 4.5 days to 1 day verifying on the same day show good agreement in its prediction.” One can only imagine the hype a storm as extreme as this one would generate if it were to arrive today with four days of advance notice!

 

[Tom 16887]

Ouch...00z EPS has shifted E along with the rest of the model trends...

[Madtown 1092]

1-3" or 2-4" off the lake thus afternoon and tonight...a great welcome to the north! Lake just locked up last night

[Niko 7225]

 

[Niko 7225]

12 minutes ago, Madtown said:

1-3" or 2-4" off the lake thus afternoon and tonight...a great welcome to the north! Lake just locked up last night

I believe you posted this in the wrong thread!

[Madtown 1092]

Just now, Niko said:

I believe you posted this in the wrong thread!

It's a part of the storm. Thats where the NNW winds and added moisture are coming from

[Grizzcoat 3790]

Looks like 12z suite this far (GFS,NAM,RDPS) continuing the trend of weaker and E. 2-4 event for SEMI, the "mistake by the lake" (Cleveland and Ernest Byner- if you get that you can date my age) is golden.

[jaster220 8344]

Doesn't take too much to be a notable storm for Ohio, especially this early. But it won't be such for any of our regular posters. Turned into a nothingburger for mby. Hopefully not a trend for our season.

[Tom 16887]

Aside from some LES in NW IN, most of W MI misses out on this run and clobbers CLE... @Nikodoes alright...

 

[Niko 7225]

40 minutes ago, Tom said:

Aside from some LES in NW IN, most of W MI misses out on this run and clobbers CLE... @Nikodoes alright...

 

I'll take 7" and run w it as fast as possible. Not too shabby at all.

[Niko 7225]

Accu-Weather's thinking on this storm:

 

 

 

A rapidly developing and fast-moving storm is poised to bring heavy snow and wind to parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and southern Appalachian regions. Enough snow to shovel and plow is in store for Cleveland, Akron, Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus and Toledo, Ohio; Indianapolis and Fort Wayne, Indiana; Detroit, Flint and Ann Arbor, Michigan; Erie, Pennsylvania and Toronto and London, Ontario. Several inches of snow can pile up over the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians with a few inches over parts of middle Tennessee, central Kentucky and Indiana. Snow amounts will trend upward across Ohio, West Virginia, western Pennsylvania, southern Ontario and southeastern Michigan.

Note: To sum it all up, the further east you are, the more snow you will receive w this storm.

[Niko 7225]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Doesn't take too much to be a notable storm for Ohio, especially this early. But it won't be such for any of our regular posters. Turned into a nothingburger for mby. Hopefully not a trend for our season.

Yep...too far east for ya to get anything appreciable, but don't forget, you will still get some light snow accumulation in yby, just not the hvy stuff. You on the other hand, could get some beneficial LES as well, so that is something to look forward to. Finally, this storm could still go west a bit. Plenty of room for that to happen. Hang in there amigo.

[jaster220 8344]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

Yep...too far east for ya to get anything appreciable, but don't forget, you will still get some light snow accumulation in yby, just not the hvy stuff. You on the other hand, could get some beneficial LES as well, so that is something to look forward to. Finally, this storm could still go west a bit. Plenty of room for that to happen. Hang in there amigo.

Sure, it'll be a "taste of winter" here at some point but I've pretty much punted this storm, this next week, and maybe most of December. It's not just a matter of this one going dud here either. We are about to put wraps on Met autumn and did not get one single stratiform soaker type storm the entire 3 months. The only real defo action that comes to mind was last Sunday's system that was not only warm here, but paltry in qpf. The system was just getting it's act together as it came through this region. Not like we've had heavy precip makers that simply lacked BN temps to make them winter storms. There's more at play than that. 9 years ago this evening, even 2011 delivered an 8.5" pound-town event here. Also, NMI continues what is now a mounting snow deficit despite one or multiple Euro runs flashing feet of snowfall. As somebody out west posted (mlgamer?) we've had a massive winter via 156 hr snowfall maps. After a promising October run of cold connecting with moisture, everything since has been the opposite. On a positive note, we did have a gorgeous autumn day with the clouds from the approaching system and 50F temps. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you're still scoring a decent snow from this but I see they still are hesitant to hoist an actual headline for SEMI. I'm just going to expect the usual leading up to Christmas, some dustings and a chilly day or two. I'll remain skeptical of any pattern shift until I see it and can feel it, lol. Good luck over there!