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Nov 30-Dec 2 OHV/Eastern GL's possibly historic snowstorm.


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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Sure, it'll be a "taste of winter" here at some point but I've pretty much punted this storm, this next week, and maybe most of December. It's not just a matter of this one going dud here either. We are about to put wraps on Met autumn and did not get one single stratiform soaker type storm the entire 3 months. The only real defo action that comes to mind was last Sunday's system that was not only warm here, but paltry in qpf. The system was just getting it's act together as it came through this region. Not like we've had heavy precip makers that simply lacked BN temps to make them winter storms. There's more at play than that. 9 years ago this evening, even 2011 delivered an 8.5" pound-town event here. Also, NMI continues what is now a mounting snow deficit despite one or multiple Euro runs flashing feet of snowfall. As somebody out west posted (mlgamer?) we've had a massive winter via 156 hr snowfall maps. After a promising October run of cold connecting with moisture, everything since has been the opposite. On a positive note, we did have a gorgeous autumn day with the clouds from the approaching system and 50F temps. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you're still scoring a decent snow from this but I see they still are hesitant to hoist an actual headline for SEMI. I'm just going to expect the usual leading up to Christmas, some dustings and a chilly day or two. I'll remain skeptical of any pattern shift until I see it and can feel it, lol. Good luck over there!

This could have been big, but did not work out that way unfortunately. Thank goodness is only November and not January or February 😅

Tbh: whatever snow I get tomorrow and Tuesday will be a bonus for this time of the year. Dont forget, its still end of November.  Also, I noticed that NOAA posted no headline as well. Maybe they are waiting to decide w the 4am package. So far, I am in the 3-5inch Category, which poses a WWA at least and to top it all off, I was not even added a "Hazardous Outlook" at all, for inclement weather possible. Very bad on their end. So many people working there need to get fired!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Detroit so far received 3" Its all snow covered outside and what a way to welcome December. Currently this:   Light Snow and Low Drifting Snow 27°F  

Places just south of CLE already with a foot of snow OTG...what an incredible way to open up Winter for them folks!    

I think it's a matter of exactly when/where/who scores the most snow from this impending storm. As I understand it, the UL wave came onshore in Cali last night and that ingest may have been the reason

Posted Images

GRR NWS:
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020

-- Snow Potential for Southeast Lower Michigan Monday into Tuesday --

Two potential storms may have at least peripheral effects for
southwest Lower Michigan, one early in the week and another next
weekend. The track of the  surface low on Monday and Tuesday across
eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania will keep the deformation axis and
best f-gen forcing across central Ohio and southeast Lower Michigan
on Monday lingering into Tuesday as a trowal persists across the
eastern Great Lakes. Lake enhanced snow showers in northwest flow
will be affecting the southwest forecast area during this time as
well. So POPs Monday into Tuesday will be highest across the SE
zones especially Jackson County, along with the SW zones especially
Van Buren County. Accumulations and impacts in our forecast area
should be low as the stronger mesoscale snow bands are expected to
remain off to the east of the forecast area where the best mid level
F-gen will be, while the heavier lake effect bands remain to the
southwest, across Berrien County and northern Indiana. The storm
pulls away Tuesday night while our attention turns to a low cutting
off across the Southern Plains.

-- Lowering chances for a Big Storm next weekend --

The Southern Plains low is now trending to move along the Gulf Coast
and take longer to phase with a northern stream low. This greater
separation and slower phasing means the bulk of the heavier
precipitation remains south and east of Lower Michigan. There could
still be some light snow or snow showers as the northern stream low
moves through late in the weekend, but this is looking like less of
a significant storm for Lower Michigan.

&&

You in the right spot thus far @Niko this winter!

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1 minute ago, whatitdo said:

May not belong in right thread but tell me @jaster220 how often in the winter months is there a potential snowfall threat to track in SW Michigan? Like how many snow events a month is common here I guess

It runs the gamut really. I keep track of the number of plow-worthy events (generally 3+") which could come from synoptic and/or LES. I consider the avg to be 5/season, but for Kzoo I'd add another 50% so 7-8. In a really active (good) winter which I've seen numerous in the past 2 decades, Kzoo can see 15+ headline events (WWA or better). On a side note, it is still early and while there have been cold-n-snowy Novembers they are far from a sure thing and the low avg snowfall for the month indicates that most Novembers pass without much if any real snows. Hope that helps.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

It runs the gamut really. I keep track of the number of plow-worthy events (generally 3+") which could come from synoptic and/or LES. I consider the avg to be 5/season, but for Kzoo I'd add another 50% so 7-8. In a really active (good) winter which I've seen numerous in the past 2 decades, Kzoo can see 15+ headline events (WWA or better). On a side note, it is still early and while there have been cold-n-snowy Novembers they are far from a sure thing and the low avg snowfall for the month indicates that most Novembers pass without much if any real snows. Hope that helps.

yessir it does. 7-8 3 inch plus events would be very welcomed. That's like 2 a month from december to march. Hope it pans out. I feel like bad luck sometimes 😕 don't want south busts to follow me haha 

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37 minutes ago, Niko said:

Jaster--

0z NAM came in a bit west and stronger as well.

I'm riding the 1" line on most maps. Did it change that? And just how does one stretch 1" over 30 hrs anyways? The fraction/hr rate would make pixie dust look like +SN. Went from models showing 15+ inches here, to 1. Maybe, lol. Just not finding any way to polish this turd, sorry bud. Still hope you make out ok with your 2-5".

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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37 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I'm riding the 1" line on most maps. Did it change that? And just how does one stretch 1" over 30 hrs anyways? The fraction/hr rate would make pixie dust look like +SN. Went from models showing 15+ inches here, to 1. Maybe, lol. Just not finding any way to polish this turd, sorry bud. Still hope you make out ok with your 2-5".

Wait till tomorrow. Maybe some changes can happen.

Thanks amigo....hopefully. 4-7" is just to my north, so a lot can change from now until tomorrow. This storms movement needs to be watched for any adjustments.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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agree with Tom- something that I haven't seen in sometime. What makes this situation unique for OH / PA is not either synoptic or lake effect- it's BOTH. Rarely do I remember something like this so early in the year.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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10 minutes ago, Niko said:

Currently snowing w temps already falling to near 33F. Everything getting snow covered. Honestly, the rain changed over to snow a lot quicker than expected.

nowcast, judging by radar, you might do quite well.  

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2 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

nowcast, judging by radar, you might do quite well.  

Yep...that is what I am thinking as well. Accumulations could boost higher as the day progresses. Snow is ripping outside (huge flakes) and the wind is howling as well.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

It's been years since I can recall a snow forecast like this in early Dec for OH, heck, even for the last 5 or more winter seasons!

Weather Story from Cleveland, OH

I stayed downtown CLE on business a couple years back (Mar '19). Looks like the lakeshore warmth (hello Chicago) will preclude the city proper from major totals, but yeah, the inland regions look to do well. This is still potentially historic, just disappointingly not for our Sub.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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  • jaster220 changed the title to Nov 30-Dec 2 OHV/Eastern GL's possibly historic snowstorm.

Real busy w zoom meetings today, but real quick:

I am getting wind gusts to 36mph, sustained at 26mph. Current radar looks loaded w moisture and its snowing sideways. Real action starts later today into all of tanite and all of Tuesday and finally Tuesday nite. Dam, long duration! Have a feeling accumulations will go up. Currently in the 4-6inch projection line. We will see how all this plays out and will try to post wintry pics when this storm departs.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Greetings everyone...

Seems awful quiet in here, are the majority of members residing in Central & Western Michigan?

Are there no members in this forum that live along the Southern edge of Lake Erie?

Out here at the Western end of Lake Ontario the sporadic rain drops have transformed to snow flakes with temperatures struggling to get below the freezing point.

 

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49 minutes ago, kush61 said:

Greetings everyone...

Seems awful quiet in here, are the majority of members residing in Central & Western Michigan?

Are there no members in this forum that live along the Southern edge of Lake Erie?

Out here at the Western end of Lake Ontario the sporadic rain drops have transformed to snow flakes with temperatures struggling to get below the freezing point.

 

Welcome! Yeah, most regulars are Central Michigan and points west. Just 1 or 2 peeps east of Niko's place in SEMI. One guy's in Toronto area Iirc.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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CLE.

OHwx mentioned that they haven't had a set-up like this since 10-11. Analog much?   Peeps with 24" amounts in their point-n-click.  Jealous much?

 

20201130 CLE icons.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

CLE.

OHwx mentioned that they haven't had a set-up like this since 10-11. Analog much?   Peeps with 24" amounts in their point-n-click.  Jealous much?

 

20201130 CLE icons.PNG

Places just south of CLE already with a foot of snow OTG...what an incredible way to open up Winter for them folks!

 

Image

 

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Headline till noon

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
325 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

MIZ069-070-076-083-011700-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-201201T1700Z/
Oakland-Macomb-Wayne-Monroe-
Including the cities of Pontiac, Warren, Detroit, and Monroe
325 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches.

* WHERE...Oakland, Macomb, Wayne and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The period of heaviest snowfall will occur
  through 10 am or so with snow ending by afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.
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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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49 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

Detroit has received the heavier snow but not here in Macomb where I would say we barely rec'd an inch.  Just a coating to make it icy. Not sure where your picture of that drifting snow is from, but it's not from around here.  Must be south into Detroit.

Why dont you go and check NOAA. That might open up your eyes. Also, seems like you don't know the county of Macomb well at all. Its just not one town. There are multiple areas. I could be in the northern part or southern part, where weather varies. I.e., Armada (North) vs St. Clair Shores (South). Big difference. Seems like I know more about MI than you do and I am not even from here. Weather can vary substantially from township to township within the county of Macomb.

Another thing, b4 you start attacking my posts, go back and study a bit. You seem very uneducated. Last person you want to attack on is me. Trust me!

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Macomb+County,+MI/@42.5547202,-83.0568957,10z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x8824ce0f39c19f23:0x8b5cd7ce995c5067!8m2!3d42.7168759!4d-82.820974

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.68614500000007&lon=-82.95787499999994#.X8ZfIx17mCc

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=dtx&product=RTP&issuedby=DTX&format=ci&version=1

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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First of all I am not attacking anyone,  I assumed with your location showing Macomb, it was the city of Macomb, and not the county.  All I was reporting was what was actually going on in the city of Macomb.  I am very educated thank you and don't need you to tell me otherwise.

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