Approaching Pattern Discussion ..

[richard mann]

There's still plenty of meridional potential through 2nd or so ... with colder air's slowing east—even though retracting northward more generally more over-all.

Main cold is still receding daily more northward, and should through the 6th. This while with it's having begun to do so already through the higher mid-latitudes, colder air mass beginning to move more assertively east at this point where looked at more over-all.

[richard mann]

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General reset. (?)

Quite a bit of cold delivery south since the big "Buffalo" event or there aboutst.  

.. And with cold more currently both moving along fairly gingerly east more north, or having moved down the greater Coast to have steered and offset main moisture more inland South.

— Main cold more primary, is moving more toward better consolidation more short term, per my appreciation, with its being set to continue its general recession more northward, through the 6th Saturday.

http://www.proxigee.com/multnomah_falls_freeze-t17.jpg         http://www.proxigee.com/noco-t20.jpg         http://www.proxigee.com/tumblr_picnic-t10.jpg
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907 ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

[richard mann]

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Currently in general regress (or receding daily more latitudinally northward.), and with its having begun to move steadily more slowly east back on the 22nd, and at this point even more sluggishly east, …

.. With continuing to recess daily north through the 3rd of Jan., I'm expecting main colder air looked at more broadly, to step up its pace east for a short period from the 3rd through the 5th or 6th of Jan., lending to a somewhat at least more zonal flow pattern during this shorter timeframe. This while with primary cold air's beginning to spread more southward beginning on the 3rd or 4th, a general transition to a gradually more meridional patterning from the 6th of Jan. forward with cold's gradually slowing movement and pace more longitudinally east.
 
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/735-early-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections

[richard mann]

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All things considered, no more solid changes, just a more general shift in pattern. Basic precip. potential more north. Rising humidity more south. All connected for the most part, to more primary cold's initial movement more southward across the board more east to west—as I see things.  (See post above.)

[richard mann]

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.. As I'd suspected that it might while it had been sitting more northward still in "consolidation" mode more where and when main and broader cold air had been receding more northward @, … 
 
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc con.php?image=24&inv=0&t=cur
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
.. At this point where looking at things more broadly, more primary cold, with having begun to move and spread more southward daily has veered off to the Southeast more, with its having picked up its pace more longitudinally east—still apt to keep a somewhat more steadfast movement more eastward through tomorrow.  An idea—where looking more West, looked at along with more primary cold's more general expansion south at this point—likely liable to press some amount of main moisture, and so precip. this way, more northward. This more immediately, and before main patterning shifts gradually to increasingly more meridional with colder air's slowing east while continuing to spread more south.

[richard mann]

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Certainly a difficult call at this point, and so really only some basic ideas, …
 
.. What you're looking at right now per my view, broader pattern wise, is a both longer and relatively shallow wave train east to west, if with a lesser dense trough of cold having moved south and broken into the more Western main and broader ridge-section area of what I've suggested here. 
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/IGCM-00152015007.jpg -.. More static. 1501070015 nasa globlir.jpg
 
— This broader pattern having resulted as I see things, with more primary cold's both at the same time only just a few days ago—on the 4th—having begun to move and spread more southward daily, together with also having been moving at a more stepped up and assertive pace east. .And with these ideas, colder air's where looked at more as a whole, also more sluggish movement more over-all at this point. 
 
.. With this general pattern in place more currently, and with broader cold's being set to continue its more sluggish movement more over-all still for the next few days—and so maintaining a relatively broad-based character, .. over the next few to several days more, more primary cold is set to begin moving gradually more directly south, with also being set to move steadily more slowly more longitudinally east for the next 4 or 5 days. 
 
$ .. The difficulty where looking ahead at main patterning at this point, is that—with these ideas, and with quite a bit of main moisture having been able to move north to the west more out over the Pacific—some only, if certainly more significant, having been steered into and over Western WA—pressed on more longitudinally from its west by cold if having been moving more assertively also at the same time relatively sluggishly east, … 
 
.. No. 1, all of the colder air more upstream and to the West is more secondary—or not more directly connected to any cold more primary to the north. .And no. 2, the current position/s of more primary cold north. .Basically, either whether far across the Pacific to the northwest, or either otherwise, far to the north and moving over the main polar region. 
 
http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur
http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur

Gif loops, more static.  15010400z 15010700z nhem 850.gif  15010400z 15010700z nhem 500.gif
 
— In the realm of possibilities, more general leastwise, and if more ideally, with moving more slowly east, some of the more primary cold having moved over the main polar region, having been sitting over Northern Asia, could or may, move more directly south, even perhaps being caused to retrograde somewhat more Westward, to then move more south.

[richard mann]

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With some renewed energy where looking at its movement more over-all, …
 
— Initially, apparently, having lent to some amount of decent more systemic both organization along with activity more specific, more south just yesterday. 
 
— Fairly sluggish movement of colder air looked at more over-all fairly apparent from the 4th or so through to the 10th. 
 
.. main colder air to the West out over the broader Pacific at this point, appears to have begun to move more solidly and steadfastly east. 
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
And with this idea, with colder air looked at more as whole at this point also at the same continuing to move and spread more southward daily—(if where looking at more primary cold's both North and Northwest more downstream not being all that dense where compared with other more to the east)—chances appear to be improving for some amount of moisture's being guided toward the greater Far West over the next few to several days. This with (and if again) main colder air's both more stepped up pace east while continuing more south, together with, more post the 17th, broader cold's beginning to regress daily more northward, looked at along with its also additionally, where looked at otherwise more longitudinally, beginning to slow its pace more eastward more from the 20th forward. This last idea here, working to allow main moisture south, a better pathway more directly north.. once steered, and or boxed in, more eastward.

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

[richard mann]

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Colder air mass has begun to slow its pace east at this point. @ .And so main patterning should transition to steadily and increasingly more meridional.
 
With this, and if with broader cold looked at more over-all also being in general regress or recession mode more latitudinally, more primary cold north should still be able to move south more directly. If less far daily.

 

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

[richard mann]

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Greater cold's consolidation—kinetic, over the past 12 days—during colder air's general regress.
 
15011712z 15012912z nhem 850.gif
15011712z 15012912z nhem 500.gif
 
— For most of the past 12 days, more since the 20th / 21st of Jan., and while main and broader cold air has been in general recession mode (i.e. receding daily northward where looked at more as a whole. And post its most recent general expansion southward daily, more from earlier Jan. through the 17th.), where looked at more longitudinally, main colder air looked at more broadly, has at the same time been slowing its over-all more eastward movement steadily more daily.  
 
.. Note more in particularly here that with and during this general period of consolidation of colder air North, the idea that Alaska has been part of the main route through which some of the stronger and most dense cold has past. This if with that stronger cold's not having remained more focused over Alaska, its certainly having worked—even through to this point—to have lowered greater Alaska's main temps substantially, and if only more relatively, as compared to what they had been previously, more much above normal.
 
15011712 15012912 tcm sfc na 12z.gif

[richard mann]

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At this point, per my appreciation and reckoning more general—and if with its more over-all force of movement decreasing (key point.), .. colder air mass looked at more broadly, across the board from east to west, has begun to move daily more south. This while at the same time having begun to step up its broader movement and pace more eastward, also daily more.
 
— With these ideas, main patterning should be governed both by the general balance of this combined movement of colder air, looked at together with also just where main strongholds of more primary cold have set up through higher latitudes north, with broader cold's general recession more northward over the past 10 to 14 days having lent to a better general consolidation of that cold more primary.-And should be somewhat more zonal daily for the next three or four days before turning to increasingly more meridional with broader cold's slowing movement more eastward from that point forward more.
 
150130 4-panel upper-air temp-profile   Polar-orbiting satellite acquired. 2am local swaths.
 
150130 700mb temp-profile
150130 700mb temp-profile pan-pacific  (Pan-Pacific centered re-generation.)
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/mirs/prod mon4.html  (images sources)
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/mirs/prod mon.html?sat=POES
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

[richard mann]

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http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

Still fairly broad-based with its still fairly low force of movement where looked at more over-all, colder air mass more new and fresh from the north should continue to move and spread daily, steadily more south for the next week or so. And so, with this idea, for at least part of this time, work to limit the more longitudinal movement of colder air more secondary more southward, pushing the series of systems lined up more south out of the Pacific, fairly steadfastly more east. 
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/735-early-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=66334
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm  -  Image availability, 3-hourly, for the five main geostationary scopes.

[richard mann]

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.. The main ideas / elements more general above, still in effect. More secondary cold more at this point, having worked to generate two different more defined systems.

 

— Main focus, the 2nd wave having been projected more officially. 

 

— The main and if more substantial, more secondary cold pushing the main system approaching from the west at this point, having originated over East Asian, and having begun to move more east across the (broader. ?) Pacific, back on the 2nd of February. .... More assertively through the 3rd. Before then having been aided more by both some amount of general momentum, together with also, a narrowing arena (more latitudinal.) with new and more primary cold's spread daily more southward from the 31st forward. And further, by a renewed more general force of movement looked at more over-all, having begun on the 6th.

 

(Or, not..)

[richard mann]

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So, with some amount of more residual activity and effects with some amount of additional instability connected to and following behind the system having moved in today, likely tomorrow, … 
 
And, with as suggested within Cliff Mass's most recent Blog entry, a pattern shift more toward ridging for the next few days, …
 
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/02/is-winter-over.html
 
.. With colder air mass finally appearing to be beginning to hold more sway where considering main pattern development, I'm thinking that this move toward ridging could be only more short-lived, with things shifting back to increasingly more zonal from the 12th of Feb. forward. 

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/808-february-2015-pnw-discussion/?p=69240

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/831-march-2015-pnw-discussion/?p=72901
 
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm  .. Images accessible, 3-hourly, for the five main geostationary scopes.

[richard mann]

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Actually more retrospective here, than dealing with the main pattern, more "Approaching". ...
 
An animation—converted to "YouTube" accessible video—showing here below, of the general progression of main patterning as viewed more narrowly, where looking at much of the main Goes-W scope and field of view; .. main Infrared parameter, three-hourly from back on the 6th, and having lead up to the recent stronger event centered from Portland north. Somewhat at least apparently, even evidently, unexpected. 
 
 GOES-W IR 3-hourly - 15030700z - 15031621z  …..
 

 
Quality potential, more at "YouTube":  Main video settings adjustment:  res. 480p / Theater-size image mode.
 
Posted here in fact both, to document to some extent what had been occurring main pattern-wise where looking at and leading up to this event, together with and if also, to show the idea, …
 
— At least where looked at more generally (i.e. if where looking more only at main colder air's involvement and part played in this event's having been brought about. And with this, more at what might have been derived more where considering what I'd in fact suggested might more main colder air wise and focused within the two most recent projections that I've submitted where looking at this main element of whatever more systemic activity's development.), ... that with what I'd projected, I've to some degree, and if in the more general vernacular sometimes employed more casual discussion leaning and focused here, ...
 
 ".... Beat the models, with this one, looks as if. " ….
 
$ ..  This with, more essentially (general supposition, still more here.), the idea that  … had "the models" been able to account better perhaps for the main transition where looking at main cold's main movement and spread (general expansion, daily) more southward—on the 13th @—more to, its having begun to regress more northward, ... in fact fairly quickly, as a result, more in line with is also at the same time having begun to step up its pace more eastward, more from the 12th forward (More so with its recess north.), .. then they might have been better able to foresee what actually resulted.
 
— I'm not "crowing" here, but more just and only working to perhaps provide some amount of perspective where and with considering what I've suggested here above. Even somewhat out of the ordinary. 
 
.. More basically, in and where considering this instance, "the models" (what I'd seen of them posted more, showing a few different depictions / possible scenarios of the general set up, general pattern and otherwise where looking at the main timeframe surrounding this event. Heard, read otherwise.), .. clearly fell short of the idea of having generated a more decent projection of and where looking at the shape of things where set against what actually played out. And with what I've said here above, I'm only suggesting that they may not be seeing and accounting for (some, still.) of all of what there is perhaps yet to, main parameterization wise. ....
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm  .. Images accessible, 3-hourly, for the five main geostationary scopes.
 
Here below accessible is a gif loop animation, illustrative of the main changes having taken place where looking at the combined 500mb pressure heights along with 850mb pressure-height temperatures, starting with the 14th of Mar., and moving 12-hourly forward through the 16th (ending at 00z for the 17th.), and showing the main 120hr (of 5-day) ahead forecast depictions, set against the main and more initial (or "0hr initialization") assessment graphics for each successive 12hr point during this period.
 
2015031400zv-20150317zv 850-500mb.gif
 
With looking at this basic more direct comparison, colder air's both steady recession more northward (More out of the main mid-latitudes where considering this perceptive.), together with more stepped up pace east, can be see fairly plainly.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference. Posted to the general thread for the PNW.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/831-march-2015-pnw-discussion/?p=74834

[richard mann]

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.. And so. 
 
As can be seen fairly plainly. Main cold has in fact slown its pace east over the past 24 to 36 hours. This while also at this point, appearing to be continuing to move and spread still more south—even increasingly more meridionally (directly.), with its slower movement east. @
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
All of which is good of course. At least in more general terms. With the main lower pressure (a few different lower centers more significant.) having formed and set up better over the 4th and into the 5th, having worked to spin and steer, both, some fairly significant cold (moving more SSE), along together with different areas of moisture, offset with that colder air movement where looked at otherwise, more inland and to over much of the Far West.
 
Not a lot of rain more south. But some decent cold. And where looking at things more in general over the past few days, even an harbinger conditions more positive where looking more forward, both shorter and even greater term. Indicative perhaps of at least "some" more, of the same of both. This along with even perhaps, a solid pattern change more beneficial, and less atypical on the harsher side.

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=75883

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm  -  Image availability, 3-hourly, for the five main geostationary scopes.

[richard mann]

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Even with cold slowing steadily more daily at this point where considering its main eastward pace and progress more longitudinal, with the depth of cold still showing more upstream to the West, looked at together with colder air's also being in general recession more northward at this point @, the main movement of cold is still ESE. Which should allow for it to move at least close to the greater Coast, and in turn work to moderate main higher temperatures daily, downward generally.  

 

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

 

source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm  -  Image availability, 3-hourly, for the five main geostationary scopes.

[richard mann]

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... Main colder air is both slowing more longitudinally east, while at the same time spreading daily more south more latitudinally at this point. Lending to an increasingly more meridional patterning. This with the potential for whatever troughing generated resulting, to extend more southward than its has to this point given its ability to maintain its depth—set against the more general warming of the season. 
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/851-early-spring-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=76603

[richard mann]

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.. A general recap, in the form of a gif-animation sequence, of the past 5 or 6 days main pattern and resultant weather wise, certainly beneficial where looking at California.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/150420_0000z_satsfc-t.jpg
15042000z-042615z 3-hrly satsfc na-ep.gif
(This sequence's initial loading time may take a moment depending upon your system, at 12 plus MB.)
 
As I'd suggested projected last week, with also having pointed to above as being likely, main colder air has in fact been caused to move more southward daily since the 20th, this while at the same time been slowing where considering its main more eastward pace and progress; .. both of these main elements of its over-all movement having worked to press on and steer main moisture having moved more up from the South at some point more upstream, more toward the greater Coast along with even much of California.
 
With this, and with this general combination of colder air's movement both still more south with continuing to slow—through the first week of May and more the end of April, respectively, ... 
 
Also as I've suggested above, main patterning should continue to lean toward increasingly more meridional for the next 3 or 4 days, before beginning to shift to more zonal for another 3 or 4 days at least.
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm  -  Image availability, 3-hourly, for the five main geostationary scopes.

[richard mann]

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.. With the more zonal flow for 3 or 4 days that I'd suggested above, having begun and caused the colder air having been sitting out over the Pacific more a few days ago to have begun to move over the Greater Far West, that cold should work to keep things cool for that long. This, with even perhaps a bit longer with cold's main more eastward progress set to slow again from the 3rd of May forward, and with broader main cold also being set more latitudinally, to continue to spread more south through May 6th.

 

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

 

source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm  -  Image availability, 3-hourly, for the five main geostationary scopes.

[richard mann]

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With a more zonal flow in effect at this point with colder air's more stepped up movement more eastward, the more specific level of more seasonally related and generated warmer air to the south has been able to begin to migrate a bit more northward. The main dividing line between colder to the north and warmer air to the south at this point being at about the OR/CA border, maybe a bit more south.
 
This, if with still some potential .. as I've said above, for colder air to move and spread at least somewhat more southward from now through the first maybe 3 or 4 days of May. Even perhaps through the 6th, with its taking a more direct path in line with its slower movement east post the 3rd of May.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/15043002_tcm_sfc_na-t.png
15043002-15043022z_tcm_sfc_na.gif 
(Gif-loop. Click on the image.)      source:  "Unisys Wx" 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm  -  Image availability, 3-hourly, for the five main geostationary scopes.

[richard mann]

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A more incidental obversation with comment really only here. But it appears that to this seasonal point, warmer season focused, the main elements driving / working to generate broader patterning are set up and lending more to ridge suppression, than the potential for stronger ridge development ... over the Far West and nearer main Eastern Pacific. This with main ridge development more, appearing to be setting up more mainly, centered more over the rest of the West more to the East.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/15042900z_nhem_850-t.jpg
15042900z_15050400z_nhem_850.gif 
(Gif-loop. Click on the image.)      source:  "Unisys Wx" 

[richard mann]

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As I've said suggested within my most recent broader projection where looking at main and broader cold air mass both movement and distribution @, …

.. Main cold has just over the past few days begun to both regress steadily more northward while at the same time more at this point, being set to begin moving through a week-long period or so of more stepped up pace east.

— If I'm correct with my projection, you'll see both of these ideas reflected in the models over the next few days more and more.

With these ideas looked at both together, main patterning should shift to increasingly more zonal. This while the main focus of more significant activity shifts steadily more northward.

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm  -  Image availability, 3-hourly, for the five main geostationary scopes.

[richard mann]

(.. addendum to the post just above.)
  
.. With colder air's main more longitudinal movement transitioning to a gradually more stepped up pace east—lending more generally to an increasingly more zonal main pattern flow, .. even with main cold's more over-all regression daily more Northward also at this point, some amount of more significant cold is being steered more South where more conducive to the potential (Off the greater Coast West, and down through the main corridor just east of the Rockies.), more the result of cold's still relatively slow movement east more over-all. 
 
— That being steered more south down along the greater Coast West, lending to the most recent main NWS forecast more general, out of and for Sacramento for this week ahead. - http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=sto
  
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

[richard mann]

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Fairly interesting.

.. With checking the 3-hourly polar scope both WV and main IR parameters view for the past 6 days, .. it looks as if the cold from more upstream having been being steered more south down along the greater Coast during this same general period, has been related in part to some cold from out of the more extreme high latitudes to the NNE, having moved retrograde more SW to block its more Eastward path and progress.

150511 00z wv-na.jpg

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/polar/index.php?type=polar-wv-48  
http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/polar/index.php?type=polar-ir-48 

 (.. current and updating. Check the mor static image above.)
(These animated sequences take a few moments to load in.)

[richard mann]

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Certainly an odd duck main and broader pattern wise at this point.
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
With colder air look at more over-all currently moving at a fairly strong pace East, while at the same time in general regress (or receding generally, daily) more northward, .. and with significant cold upstream from the West over the past 4 or 5 days—where having met with either whether or both, the greater topography of the Coast, or other cold, having moved initially more SSW from higher latitudes down through Canada more retrograde West to Western Canada—having been steered more directly South to have offset warmer and wetter air mass, .. at this point we're looking at a larger Upper Level Low, spinning relatively stationarily over the Greater West.
 
... This all, with where looked at otherwise more generally, the broader patterning looked at more from the Central Pacific more Eastward to the nearer Atlantic, looking like an huge and if more long wave (so called.) "Rex Block", or strong Ridge with a significant Low to its direct South. ….
 
.. Difficult to gage just how this more jumbled scenario will play out. How much further the cold still moving more southward off the greater Coast will head. Its density being a main factor. This though again, per my own projection, I'm expecting colder air, looked at more broadly, to continue its stronger pace East more over-all, for the next few days.
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/851-spring-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=77378

[richard mann]

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.. Still plenty of relatively dense cold air having been steered more south, preceding any more significant ridge-formation potential, both more upstream.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

source:  http://www.fvalk.com/day image.htm  -  Image availability, 3-hourly, for the five main geostationary scopes.

[richard mann]

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Looking at the idea of basic seasonal warming, with at the same time where more dense cold is sitting more to the North at this point, …

15052022z tcm sfc na.gif  @

— Relatively cool still West, Warming North. Main cold still in place far NE, things only just beginning to warm really through the SW, ...

150519 temp 700mb all 2pm-asc.png  @
(All swaths 2pm local longitude.)

— And with broader cold still in place North currently being set to move gradually more south .. increasingly more meridionally, over the next week and a half or so @, …

.. General ridging is likely to be building in for the next 4 or 5 days at least, with that cold relatively dense further to the West working by degrees to shear up the if more at this point only generally higher pressures out over the near Eastern Pacific, with its movement and pace only a more generally slowing eastward, while otherwise moving more south.

[richard mann]

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Lower level odd pattern. More upper level, "Rex" whatever. @ .. Not much shearing up of the ridging potential, with near nil both system looked at together with main colder air mass movement more eastward. 
 
http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

 

.. Broader cold still set to move, yet more slowly east through near to the end of May. More so with a weakening more over-all force of movement through the 26th. This while where looking at cold's more latitudinal potential at this point, its still being set to move and spread more south by degrees daily through the first few days of June. 

 

— Draw your own conclusions here main pattern / broader conditions wise. .. "Some, general, radiational warming". Sorta. (?) ... With the general advance of season. (?) .. Not much real pattern definition more consequential. (?)

[richard mann]

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With colder air's over-all force of movement having begun to increase at this point, this with its where otherwise looked at more longitudinally still moving relatively slowly eastward, while being more latitudinally in the midst of a general expansion more southward—these different main elements of its main movement looked at together with distribution potential while also noting just where what cold is at this point both more down and more upstream, …

 

With a more "Rex Block" (so called) type of ridging having set up over the fuller Eastern Pacific, in main part associated with the at this point lesser cold "beneath" it, together with all other colder air mass looked at more across the board having been slowing its main more eastward movement for several days @, .. more dense cold further upstream to the WNW, should most likely be able to punch through this ridging in a few days, with its stronger movement east (even ESE). .. This with all cold's, more northward more dense, more assertive movement more eastward beginning in a few days most likely lending to an increasingly more zonal patterning more generally.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

[richard mann]

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Limited where considering its reach south with the season, main colder air is currently moving through at short period of more stepped up pace east. Lending to a generally more zonal patterning. Set to turn gradually but increasingly more meridional with colder air's transition to a slower pace more eastward beginning today or tomorrow. @

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

[richard mann]

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.. Ridge suppression, still appearing to be the general leaning pretty much to this seasonal point, main pattern-wise. Apparently. 

 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc15.gif

— Set to slow, steadily more daily, where considering its main more eastward pace and progress, a lesser push of colder air more eastward from the west should allow for some ridging, even significant where looking ahead. But for how long. ?

[richard mann]

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With the ridge in place, more amplified at this point, cold to its NW could work to cut through it to some extent in a few days with its beginning to move more strongly east. @
 
— This even though cold looked more over-all is currently retracting northward, with also looking at that cold's still decent levels of both depth and volume.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

[richard mann]

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With the main ridging sitting over the Greater West having been supported over the past 4 or 5 days, flanked by more significant colder air to its both east and west, having been both better established farther south while slowing where looking at its main pace and progress more eastward, …
 
At this point more, colder air has both receded more northward with othewise having begun to step up its movement more eastward @. Both of these ideas looked at together having worked to lower some of the main amplification potential attached to this ridging. 
 
Main seasonal warming along with larger scale convectional subsidence, certainly also being main factors here.
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

[richard mann]

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.. If with following some more pronounced heat over the past few days, ridge suppression—or stifling, perhaps otherwise put—appears to be being maintained as the more general trend pattern wise this warmer season, later Spring moving toward Summer. 
 
This with otherwise, if retracting by degrees daily at this point (more inter-seasonally.), I'm expecting main cold to the WNW to continue its generally stepped up pace east, both lending to a more zonal flow, with also allowing for some amount of more general type main seasonal warming—depending upon more specific latitude. @

15061015z Goes10-IR.jpg

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

[richard mann]

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.. Diminishing cold more immediately north, looked at together with a generally decreasing force of movement where looking at colder air's more over-all both more longitudinal and latitudinal potential more broadly at this point, may allow for a less than solidly more zonal flow east where looking forward for the next four or five days.

 

— From above, .. that flow more eastward also otherwise being caused to tend daily more northward.

[richard mann]

(.. more a current general analysis.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=78909

— Check the general context having preceded the post linked to just above. My initial comments posted regarding the general conditions prevailing yesterday more local here where I am in CA. ...
 
.. Broadbased and shallower ridge high pressure South, colder air movement more assertively east North, currently, more generally.
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

[richard mann]

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At this point colder air north, having lost some amount of density at this point, still moving more assertively east and if with having lost some of its more over-all force of movement, has edged its way south somewhat, having worked to moderate much higher temperatures south over the past few days downward. 
 
The main element at this point where looking at patterning where considering the more immediate future, is probably colder air's over-all and more general force of movement looked at together with decreasing density. Things being in transition away from the more pronounced definition that we saw just a few days ago, and more toward a less defined set up where looking at main colder set against warmer air masses and the broader picture. North, south, along with both up, and more down stream.
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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With actual astronomical Summer's beginning, it's looking like some amount of more actual and more sustained summertime like conditions may prevail. This mainly where looking at the idea of ridging potential. Or at least colder air's continued ability—with the ways its been being both distributed and caused to move—to intrude upon and so suppress main warmer season heat, amounting to being increasingly less of a factor with time. (And if allowing for the idea that colder air's more specific contribution to main patterning can also at times otherwise, work to support ridge amplification.) 
 
.. With considering the degree of its depth at this seasonal point more, although, per my estimation, main and broader cold air is set to begin to expand, or move and spread daily more southward for the next 10 to 14 days, it should also at the same time be backing off steadily more daily, from its recent generally more assertive movement and pace more longitudinally east. Both of these ideas looked at together working to allow main summertime temperatures to build, certainly more generally. @ 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml