Approaching Pattern Discussion ..

[richard mann]

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.. With slowing while spreading gradually south, if diminishing in density, main colder air is continuing to suppress the already more broadbased and shallower ridging in place.
 
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=sto  @

With colder air's further slowing where moving more eastward over the next few to several days, some amount of ridge-amplification is likely apt to result. .. If not suppressed still yet more by still relatively dense cold from more directly North or more NNW. 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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With looking at the idea of main colder air's being set at the point to both at the same time, continue to move and spread more southward, while also slow its general movement and pace more eastward for the next several days @, … This, along with also at where colder air is sitting more upstream currently, …

Potential is certainly looking good, for some amount of both continued, if more general ridge suppression, together with and if also, more general moderation of potentially much higher temperature downward, both north and south.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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Big talk of a stronger ridge earlier in and warmer first half of July, both in the general thread for the PNW here, along with more generally. 

 

.. The ridging more looked at more specifically apparently, a more eastward focused buildup of higher pressure than more typical—centered more eastward of the Sierras / Cascades.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/877-june-2015-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=79154

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/877-june-2015-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=79185

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/877-june-2015-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=79195

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/877-june-2015-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=79199

 

http://theweatherfor...thwest/?p=79222 .. A graphic depiction of main patterning, 7 days out from 00z for the 22nd.

 

.. My own thinking more general, connected to the patterning potentially surrounding the forecasted heat. 

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/877-june-2015-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=79212

 

This with and if where looking at main patterning a bit more near term. 

 

.. With where looking the idea of ridge suppression, it looks as if there's is still some potential here in effect. Although colder air is slowing currently where looked at more generally, where looking at cold's more general force of movement, i.e. looked at more over-all, if backing off from its previous stronger movement more eastward recently, and if also appearing to be losing density, colder air just upstream and to the west out over the Pacific, appears to be encroaching somewhat at least on the current ridging, potential more.

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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... Colder air slowing its main pace and progress more eastward, daily (progressively more.), while at the same time expanding (moving and spreading) also daily more southward @, ... 

 

.. Cold's slowing more eastward, lending to a more basic meridional leaning where looking at main patterning. Enhanced with main cold's general expansion more southward.

 

.. Both this general expansion of cold more south, looked at together with the idea that colder air's more over-all force of movement has just over the past few days begun to show a leaning more toward building or increasing, where looked at together, lending to the idea of an increased amplification of the ridging currently in place and developing. …. At least where considering the shorter term. 

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html 

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

 

.. Counter-clockwise circulation, main heat SW, plus a significant degree of cold siting East, all also working to enhance ridge-development.

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc18.gif  /  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc00.gif

[richard mann]

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Note with checking the gif animation accessible below of the main 0hr initialization graphics for the dates indicated, from the ECMWF Model for their combined 850mb temp height / 500mb more main pressure heights depictions, that what I'd suggested above both pattern and other wise, has actually turned out to have been the case.
 
20150615-26 00z 850-500hPa t+000vt.gif

Reiterating here more generally, .. colder air's (what there is of it out there and still in place at this seasonal point.), since the 16th of July, having been both at the same time, slowing where looking at its main pace and progress more eastward, while also having been caused to spread daily more southward.

— Effectively having worked to both "box in" and to have sheared up .. the main pressure (ridging.) having lead to the higher temperatures having been generated over the past few days. …. This while where otherwise looked at, main heat more SW having been allowed to build more generally with the steadily decreasing more moderating effects connected to colder air's presence more basic.

[richard mann]

.. Addendum to what I''ve posted / had "cross-referenced" .. to above.
 
Here next below accessible, are the main graphic depictions for the same parameter, animated, for both 7 and 5 days out, set with that for the July 26th 00z 0hr initialization.
 
20150626 00z 850-500hPa 0hr t+168vt+120vt.gif

[richard mann]

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.. A relative cooldown of course, full Coastal, north/south.

 

— Between things. (?)

 

15062720 tcm sfc na.gif

 

15062620 tcm sfc na.gif

15062700 tcm sfc na.gif

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis. @) 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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Big "Rex". (?)

 

http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-1500.jpg

 

Reminiscent of the (so called) "Rex Blocks" that we've seen this past later spring (I don't like the term "block", more generally.), … this ridge of higher pressure, is of course set to bring some warmer temps more generally to all of the West. But more specifically, as I see things leastwise, with my own main focus study wise being on "colder air mass"—and its main and broader both movement along with distribution—impact both weather and pattern wise more generally, …

 

..  I'm seeing the arrival of this more broad-based ridge (with accompanying low to the south.) as a basic transition from more cold, to more warm .. air mass dominated, patterning and so conditions more general. 

 

— To this point, if oddly with the PNW more, having experienced periods of much warmer temps at times—with the odd placement or focusing of some of the main centers of some of the highs that we've seen (Or burnt of, looked at otherwise leastwise.)—more south of the Oregon / California border has [in fact] seen a relatively mild "start to summer". ….

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis. @) 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

 

— Per my more basic colder air mass both movement along with distribution projections, I've got main and broader cold completing its current more general expansion (or movement and spread) more southward tomorrow. This with its where looked at otherwise more longitudinally, slowing its main pace and progress more eastward for several days. @

[richard mann]

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As I've suggested with / within my most recent general projection colder air mass movement along with distribution focused @, … the next likely potential window for colder air mass to move at any kind of more assertive pace more longitudinally eastward will be near the 10th—possibly as early as the 8th.
 
This with as I've suggested also there, the main tracking of that cold's being more northward, even increasingly more, with cold's general regress being set to continue through the 14th. .. Before whatever colder air, present at that point with the general seasonal point taken in to account, begins to expand more south.
 

[richard mann]

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Excessive heat through the PNW notwithstanding ... (In fact I've worked to show just why this heat has been the main focus of earlier summer, more seasonal, warming here.), .. I would say, that this image, broader scope IR, shows .. that in fact colder air is still dominating over-all patterning to this point, this earlier summer. 

 

http://www.proxigee.com/1507081715_nasa_global_ir.jpg

 

As I've noted within my most recent main colder air mass—both main movement and more general distribution—focused projection @ submitted, with having been receding northward more generally more latitudinally since the 2nd of July, .. main colder air mass looked at more broadly, is (I've estimated.) about to beginning moving more assertively east. This idea's lending, if proving to be the case, to a generally more zonal flow of both it and the main flow of the atmosphere more east. And with this, with looking at the still fairly abundant cold more upstream to the West, whatever ridging's being potentially, not only more sheared up, but even plowed through.

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis. @) 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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Colder air's general regress—in effect currently and having begun back on the 1st of July—has allowed main moisture generated south to have spread more northward with significant impact; otherwise offset by an area of if only relatively dense cold having held together more south off the Coast of California.

 

This with main colder air focused more northward clearly having begun to move more assertively east at this point. @

 

— Connected to these ideas, main heating through the Southwest has been fairly weak with the spread of main moisture over the greater region. Likely to be a factor in near-future patterning certainly leastwise. Even, by degrees, that where considering the more extended timeframe.

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis. @) 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/07/transition.html
 
"... In any case, our heat wave is over. Finished. And one thing everyone should be sensitive too, is that it was a localized heat wave over the Northwest. Most of the country has been cooler than normal, something demonstrated by the temperature anomaly map for the first week of the month provided by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (see map below). But we have been red hot (or in this case, brown hot). Another reason to be very careful in saying that our warmth was caused by global warming, considering how localized it has been."
 
http://www.proxigee.com/07_1-8_tempanomalhy.jpg
 
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/900-july-2015-in-the-pacific-northwest/page-6?do=findComment&comment=80275

[richard mann]

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Focused just west enough to be in line with what I'd suggested, with otherwise having projected @ a few days ago, main cold has in fact begun to move more southward, with the main ridging having develop—sheared up by colder air's at the same time both general expansion south while also slowing its over-all pace and progress more eastward—none of its stronger effects are being felt at this point. 

 

And with the still plentiful cold across the board from east to west still set to continue to both slow east and spread more south, we just may see a continued limitation to this ridging's effects.

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc15.gif

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis. @) 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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The both strength and depth of cold—moving southward, part of whatever main stores remaining, or otherwise looked at if only more relatively colder air mass consolidation north through higher latitudes @—at this point, appears to have been enough to have stifled yet another ridge's development. At least more sustained presence. 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc00.gif

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis. @) 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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Ridge suppression still holding on to this point, as the general trend main pattern wise. 

 

This with more specifically, some decent troughing (colder air mass) having dropped south over the past few days, colder air mass in general currently moving and spreading more southward daily, while at the same time also slowing its pace and more general progress more eastward. @ 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc15.gif

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis. @) 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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With colder air mass looked at more broadly more generally having been moving and spreading daily more southward since back on the 16th of July, …

 

.. And while its slower movement looked at otherwise also daily more over the past 12 days more longitudinally eastward otherwise, has resulted in in fact 3 different troughs of relatively cool air having been directed toward and certainly having worked to have moderated main daily higher temperatures downward here in and through the West, …

 

With denser cold air to the north more at this point being caused to move at a somewhat more stepped up pace east, allowing for a more general build up of higher pressure to the south, this period of troughiness—certainly welcomed here more south—appears to have come to an end. @

 

http://www.proxigee.com/150717_0000z_satsfc-t.jpg

 15071700z-15072812z 3-hrly satsfc na-ep.gif   

(Gif loop. Allow for loading time.)

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html 

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis. @) 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

More retrospective here. Marking the recent past, through to more current the pattern, …

 

Another "quick shot" of more substantial heat for a few days, .. Then yet more ridge suppression, together with significant relief. …. With the more monsoonal, or at least retrograde type drifting of main moisture from the south—and so cloud development and cover—northwest, and up and over the Sierras, from Sacramento northward at least. ... With main and broader colder air's current both slower movement east, while at the same time general recession more northward. @

 

http://www.proxigee.com/15073017152015211.jpg

 

http://www.proxigee.com/15080220152015214.jpg

 

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis. @) 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[Guest happ]

Richard, you should post this on PacificNW or California forum.

[richard mann]

hey happ.

I have posted a cross-reference link to it in the main general thread for August for the PNW. And generally do to all posts that I tack into this thread.

— I should probably start to do the same in the main running "California Weather and Climate" thread.

[richard mann]

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.. With cooler air looked at more broadly both slowing east while at the same time spreading more south at this point @, main ridge development—(essentially, or more basically, the allowance for a general building up of both heat and pressure, flanked to its both east and west, while also to its north, by cooler air.)—is currently becoming increasingly more amplified.

[Guest happ]

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.. With cooler air looked at more broadly both slowing east while at the same time spreading more south at this point @, main ridge development—(essentially, or more basically, the allowance for a general building up of both heat and pressure, flanked to its both east and west, while also to its north, by cooler air.)—is currently becoming increasingly more amplified.

 

Speaking of "cooler air" I noticed the trade off of cooler maximums but warmer minimums at higher elevations [sierra foothills] versus the Sacramento Valley.  

 

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS...

REDDING AP                502 :    107 /  65 /  0.00 /

RED BLUFF AP              349 :    105 /  67 /  0.00 /

OROVILLE AP               192 :    102 /  69 /  0.00 /

PARADISE                 1750 :     96 /  75 /  0.00 /

MARYSVILLE AP              62 :    103 /  64 /  0.00 /

ALDER SPRINGS            4500 :     93 /  73 /  0.00 /

 

[richard mann]

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.. With continued further both slowing of broader cold more eastward, with also its at the same time working to expand daily more southward at this point, the main more central focusing of the ridging previously more amplified and currently more flattened and much "longer" ranging looked at more longitudinally, has shifted more retrograde and to the west out over the Pacific more. @

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

 

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis. @) 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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Retracing colder air, otherwise moving more strongly only more northward at this point (essentially "cut off".) @, is currently allowing for only a more minimal offset of if fairly abundant moisture more south.

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis. @) 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

.

.. With the gradual close-down of summer / transition to "Meteorological" Fall, even with broader colder air's current daily recession more northward at this point, its at the same time progressive slowdown daily at this point more longitudinally east has lent to an increasingly more meridional patterning, together along with main and greater Coastal topography having worked to steer some amount of colder air more directly south by degrees. @

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

Main moisture pattern, leaning and potential.

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=84869

[richard mann]

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Cold north, beginning to build up with main day-length decreasing, is looking to be setting up much more favorably for us here in the West, than it did last year. 
 
hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa NA 2015092200 Temp 850 hPa
http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur
 
— Currently just having completed a general expansion (near to two-week-long period of movement and spread.) daily, more south, .. With colder air's general regress more northward from this point through to the 3rd or 4th of October @, this build up should be a prominent feature of greater patterning between now and then. Also working to show more plainly, just where main cold stores might tend to be focused more strongly this colder season ahead.

[richard mann]

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http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=sto  (updating.)
 
— More static. ... 
 
http://www.proxigee.com/151025_wx_story_sto.png

.. My own perspective, in the light of the basic idea looked at here within this current general outlook, precipitation focused.

.. The main difficultly that the models are having where looking at precip. amounts / extents where working to forecast the timeframe focused on here, is in noting that the main colder air driving this broader system potential, is currently, and all at the same time, moving along at a more stepped up pace more longitudinal eastward, .. on the increase (building.) still at this point looked at more in particularly where considering its more general force of movement, .. these ideas both, while also in basic regression mode more latitudinally.
 
— This with they're likely not noting and accounting for colder air's being apt (or set.) to slow its current both more assertive pace east, while also beginning to let up where looking at its more over-all force of movement, over the 26th and 27th @, .. both together, working to lend to an increasingly more meridional set up, tending to allow for main cold's somewhat better access south, and essentially putting cold [back] in a somewhat similar place (both position and depth wise.) to where it had been when previous forecasting had been a bit more confident for more widespread precip. where looking at California, north of Sacramento.

[richard mann]

.
 
"Nope." .. Best case scenario, of course what I'd had in mind when I'd posted what I had above.
 
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml
 
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/ir4km/201510281645.gif
 
 .. It's been as I'd said, more in line with what I'd projected more generally, back on the 18th. @
 
— Broader cold, still in general regression (Retracting more. Daily more back north, to its main source areas.), while at the same time only just having begun to slow its more stepped up pace east, ... having either or both, pushed whatever potential east to quickly, or withdrawn more northward out of the picture; .. each not having allowed for enough more general off-set of cold to warmer and wetter air from the south to have generated much of any precip. still, more south.

[richard mann]

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With main colder air having been moving and spreading more southward daily for the past 6 days or so, .. through to the 2nd more meridionally with its at the same time relatively slow pace east, and so having allowed for a greater access of warmer and wetter air more northward @, … 
 
With a general transition to a more stepped up movement of cold more eastward having begun just previous to the start of the system activity still in place by degrees at this point, a more zonal flow of colder air east, looked at together with its at the same time continued expansion south, should work to steer main moisture inland progressively more southward for the next few to several days. …
 
goes.daily.20151127.tif
goes.daily.20151202.tif   (To direct toggle between these two images, adjust the main url of the first one to read the one of the second, hit enter and use your browser's main forward and back buttons.)
 
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/#GOES

[richard mann]

Apparently the NWS's WFO in Sacramento is in fair agreement with what I've said suggested within my post just above.
 
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=sto  (.. updating.)
 
More static. ..  151104 wx story sto-a, 151104 wx story sto-b

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=96137

[richard mann]

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 With the degree of more general expansion of colder air southward looked at more broadly more seasonally at this point, even though cold air mass looked at across the board more latitudinally more inner-seasonally is currently in general regress (retraction mode) @, .. main moisture generated through the tropics and subtropics is finally beginning to be trapped more southward more substantially, .. having lead to a more substantial generation of precipitation south of the OR / CA border. 
 
1512 2012-2121z 3-hrly satsfc na-ep.gif  (a gif loop.)
 
— Not a more typical type of El Nino to this point looked at more seasonally, much of the generation of main moisture the result of warmer SSTs nearer the equator, has been being steered more eastward. This with the main moisture reaching the West, if generated to some extent more directly south through the lower latitudes, appearing to be taking the long way around, first moving more westward, then north, then back more eastward.
 
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/epac/images/mosaic20151220T220000.gif

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global2/images/mosaic20151220T220000.gif

Source:  the CIMSS's MIMIC-TPW site-page. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global2/main.html

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.12.21.2015.gif

[richard mann]

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.. With colder air mass set to continue to move and spread steadily more southward through the 8th of Jan. before beginning to regress back more northward, this while also to pick up its pace more eastward for the next  8 or 9 days—more in particularly, steadily and progressively more from the 2nd of Jan. forward through the 9th or 10th, .. whatever main precipitation moisture should be a directed more streamlined and in from out over the Pacific, steadily more southward through the 8th.  @
 
.. With some potential for precip. on the 3rd and 4th of Jan., the most likely timeframe for precipitation should be from the 7th through 10th or 11th, .. with more significant precip. being more likely more from the 8th forward, on the 9th and 10th, once colder air has both begun to regress back more north while also having been slowing its pace more eastward later on the 9th. 
 
— Main patterning beginning to shift from generally more zonal to increasingly more meridional on the 9th.

[richard mann]

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.. Main colder air should continue to move more assertively east through Saturday. Continuing to support the current stronger succession of systems reaching us here in the west. 

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

More where regarding the patterning more general this winter season.

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1152-slipt-flow/?p=110031

[richard mann]

- 

.. I'll go with "Ridging", being the most predominate, even likely pattern type and feature, prevailing over the next week to 10 days.

 

— This in line with what I've projected main and broader colder air mass both movement and distribution wise through the 18th of Feb., routed to here following. - http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1133-winter-2015-16-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=118130

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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Plenty of ridge-development potential this week—with colder air's both at the same time, general expansion daily more southward, while also .. slowing its main more longitudinal pace and progress east. 

 

.. This, with by the end of the week [WEEKS END...] a much better chance for cooler and wetter conditions, with cold's continued movement and spread south looked at together with [its] having at that point begun to move more assertively east. 

 

 http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1133-winter-2015-16-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=118130

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[richard mann]

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http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-1200.jpg
 
Still sufficiently deep and dense cold—if in general both seasonal and more inner-seasonal regress at this point—remaining south, and where moving in from out over the broader Pacific, to generate significant systems development. This with that cold's meeting with main moisture still strong from the south being allowed access more northward to set up in its general pathway more east.
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1133-winter-2015-16-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=122359
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=35907  ( .. updating current larger 21z, both IR and Vis.)
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml