December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Cleared up overnight, so another frosty morning for me (fourth in a row). 30˚F.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Troll

EPS is not too consistent right now... the cold in the middle of the country shown on previous runs is basically gone.

[Phil]

7 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Thanks. A frigid Alaska isn't going to get it done, BUT we do have a huge reservoir of bitter air pooling to our north. EPO must be + ....

That actually doesn’t look bad to me, in that it’s not an anomalous vortex centered over the Beaufort/western Arctic like 2019/20..verbatim this would be farther south over the Yukon which can be tapped directly via amplification of the Aleutian/GOA ridge. Niña/+QBO would be the setup to do it.

Relatively small differences spatially, but potentially large differences in outcome between a Beaufort/N-AK TPV (bad) versus one centered over Yukon/W-Canada (better). Latter was present in Jan 1989 just before the big blast/SSW. Former is more 2019/20.

[MossMan]

Had a low of 34. 
Currently 36. But with a DP of 32!!!

Severe Clear. 

[Weather1011]

6 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Thank bruh. About to polish a new release for IBP label, Bass Annihilator - Bass Devastation. Unsure if we'll be releasing just singles or album. It seems people are moving towards streaming/buying singles rather than full albums now.

12z GFS in 5 hours 37 minutes

I can tell you that it's not even moving away, We have been past that since 2015. Streaming is music. Period. You have the odd exception but streaming dominates. You put your album on every streaming platform and that's how you get sales and your first week sales etc. For example one of my favorite artist sold half a million album's first week and 475,000 those album sales were by stream and the other 25,000 were actual physical albums that were sold. 

 

The best way to understand it is this:

For songs, all official audio and video streams from within the US are counted in addition to pure single sales. 150 streams = 1 track sale. For albums, all official audio and video streams (SEA) from within the US are counted in addition to TEA and pure sales. 1500 streams = 10 track sales = 1 album sale

 

 

Also it's cool you can see who is the most listened to artist in the world, which is currently "The weeknd and Drake" 

[MossMan]

Well 1949/1950 redux is still on the table anyway!! That didn’t get going until after Christmas, right? 

[MossMan]

According to that highly high tech weather station in Winthrop, it appears to be about 12 degrees there currently! 

[Blizzard777]

31* for a low and currently 32*

Clear

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

According to that highly high tech weather station in Winthrop, it appears to be about 12 degrees there currently! 

But according to the phone app it’s actually 19 degrees. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

December 1949 was not bad. But not that great either. Looks like it was a little above average at PDX. 

[Jesse]

Frosty with a low of 29 this morning. Currently sunny and 32.

[BLI snowman]

26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well 1949/1950 redux is still on the table anyway!! That didn’t get going until after Christmas, right? 

Mid December. 

SEA had a 34/24 day with 1.7" of snow on 12/11. And a 30/17 day on 12/19 following a 3" snowstorm with the arctic front.

The 11th is now well within model range 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Mid December. 

SEA had a 34/24 day with 1.7" of snow on 12/11. And a 30/17 day on 12/19 following a 3" snowstorm with the arctic front.

The 11th is now well within model range 

Knew I should have looked at Seattle! Must have been a good north/south gradient with that event. 

[Kayla]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Mid December. 

SEA had a 34/24 day with 1.7" of snow on 12/11. And a 30/17 day on 12/19 following a 3" snowstorm with the arctic front.

The 11th is now well within model range 

12z GEM shows a nice looking cold shot on the 11th...

[AbbyJr]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Weak vortex continues on the EPS starting mid-December. Keep that wave driving going baby!

A weak vortex in a -ENSO/+QBO would favour arctic outbreaks in the PNW right?

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Knew I should have looked at Seattle! Must have been a good north/south gradient with that event. 

Yeah, that first event in December was very Fraser River oriented.

The sharp N-S gradient was actually evident through a lot of that winter, which is part of what made it so snowy with the boundaries getting hung up. For example, on 1/14 it was 33/19 at EUG and 24/9 at PDX. On 1/27 it was 33/23 at SLE and 22/17 at PDX.

[Kayla]

12z GEM is actually pretty nice looking. Building Aleutian heights at day 10 as well.

GFS is ugly.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

A weak vortex in a -ENSO/+QBO would favour arctic outbreaks in the PNW right?

Yup. I think in this situation all you really need is a decent -PNA.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z GEM shows a nice looking cold shot on the 11th...

OMG

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, that first event in December was very Fraser River oriented.

The sharp N-S gradient was actually evident through a lot of that winter, which is part of what made it so snowy with the boundaries getting hung up. For example, on 1/14 it was 33/19 at EUG and 24/9 at PDX. On 1/27 it was 33/23 at SLE and 22/17 at PDX.

Looking at PDX, SLE, EUG you can see the N/S gradient with monthly mean temps. 

PDX: 27

SLE: 29.6

EUG: 31.2

Snowfall was more evenly distributed it appears though PDX had the most. 

PDX: 41.5"

SLE: 32.8"

EUG: 36.1

 

In January 1949 PDX and EUG were very close. PDX monthly mean was 27.7, EUG 28.1.

[FroYoBro]

As long as Christmas is beyond the reach of the GFS, hope still lives. 

[MossMan]

The snow was melting 6yrs ago. 

[Phil]

45 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

A weak vortex in a -ENSO/+QBO would favour arctic outbreaks in the PNW right?

Yeah. Also +QBO @ 50mb helps significantly with Niña cell present irregardless.

[Phil]

52 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Yup. I think in this situation all you really need is a decent -PNA.

-PNA and dislodge-able cold.

Under +QBO, no need to torpedo the vortex since tendency will be Aleutian/GOA ridging from tropics increasing with time, but surf zone/TPV needs at least a semi-favorable structure. If NAM was hyper positive/vertically stacked thru a  baratropic mode PV at the pole, that would be (potentially) problematic. However, there’s no support for that in the foreseeable future (thanks to this +PNA pattern, ironically). So things look good in my book.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

But according to the phone app it’s actually 19 degrees. 

I don't know what my low was, probably around 20, maybe 19, so good chance they were in the low teens for their morning low.

[Jesse]

12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I don't know what my low was, probably around 20, maybe 19, so good chance they were in the low teens for their morning low.

Do you guys have any snow on the ground there?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Do you guys have any snow on the ground there?

A little bit.  Had a decent snow about a week or so ago, most of it is gone, but maybe an inch or so in areas that get shade.  Mountains around us have a good amount, and on a clear day it is gorgeous.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Canadian ensemble mean looks decent.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28 at SLE this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful morning at Silver Falls 

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful morning at Silver Falls 

They say that god once smiled upon that fair valley Andrew 

[AbbyJr]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Yeah. Also +QBO @ 50mb helps significantly with Niña cell present irregardless.

Is this winters +QBO at 50mb?

[AbbyJr]

57 minutes ago, Phil said:

-PNA and dislodge-able cold.

Under +QBO, no need to torpedo the vortex since tendency will be Aleutian/GOA ridging from tropics increasing with time, but surf zone/TPV needs at least a semi-favorable structure. If NAM was hyper positive/vertically stacked thru a  baratropic mode PV at the pole, that would be (potentially) problematic. However, there’s no support for that in the foreseeable future (thanks to this +PNA pattern, ironically). So things look good in my book.

In other words, the chances of 2020/21 being a 1999/00 bust is very low?

[Link]

17 minutes ago, Jesse said:

They say that god once smiled upon that fair valley Andrew 

You should've been there in the 90s. There was a LOT more shrubbery to the point you could NOT see the gift shop or any other facilities until you were upon them and you couldn't really tell where the heck you were in the park at any given point unless you were good at mental mapping.

  I thought things were farther apart then they actually are as in the 2000s the fire marshal ordered a bunch of crap cleared out unfortunately ruining that feeling though in this case I think it might have helped saved the park last September which is what they were worried about way back then.

[Link]

8 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

In other words, the chances of 2020/21 being a 1999/00 bust is very low?

I wouldn't exactly call 1999 a bust more like 1998-1999 was a bust with a promise of a blockbuster Xmas snow event which never even came close to fruition. All we got that winterw as moderate cold it got down to around 10F in Silverton.

 

  1999-2000 we had a 2 inch snow event that caused school to close in January of 2000.  NWS Now Data Salem Oregon has data on it though Silverton had a bit more. I think Salem only had a 2 hour delay and it was mostly the south and west hills of Salem that got anything good out of it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

In other words, the chances of 2020/21 being a 1999/00 bust is very low?

Lower. The dice are still weighted in our favo(u)r. Wasn't 99-00 high-solar?

[Deweydog]

In a sick, twisted, anti-impatient weenie way, the models seem quite encouraging if you’re up for the long game.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In a sick, twisted, anti-impatient weenie way, the models seem quite encouraging if you’re up for the long game.

Clown range gonna clown range.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Clown range gonna clown range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The creek is so beautiful from the pedestrian bridge at the campground.