December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[High Desert Mat?]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You could say the same about up here. We probably average more snow annually than Redmond and I've had less than you. Only a sloppy 1/2". 

True. I believe Redmond only averages 18” a year while Bend averages around 34”. Banana belt!!

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

True. I believe Redmond only averages 18” a year while Bend averages around 34”. Banana belt!!

Surprised Bend has around the same average as me, I can name off more times in the last several years they've had 12-24" ground depths in comparison to my place. I have only had 12+ three times since I moved here, and that did not happen my first 5 years..

[ShawniganLake]

I have seen less snow so far this year than I have seen in other years. 

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, umadbro said:

If Eugene scores like that again this year, I'll vomit. 

You should vomit anyway.  Great for weight loss and dental health.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Overall probably about average snow so far, maybe slightly above.  However, December is so far below average.  We had about 4 inches in October, which is 4 inches more than normal, and also a pretty good amount in November, above average.  December unfortunately is making up for the above average snowfall earlier Fall.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

EPS.  Pretty consistent with past runs, and it seems to me to be pretty consistent with the 46 day weeklies from last week.  Guessing the weeklies will be similar when it comes out later today.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... 850mb temp anomalies.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Sun is out now.

[luminen]

20 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS.  Pretty consistent with past runs, and it seems to me to be pretty consistent with the 46 day weeklies from last week.  Guessing the weeklies will be similar when it comes out later today.

 

Looks like dogshit ngl

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, luminen said:

Looks like dogshit ngl

So you don't like the ridge building up in Alaska and the falling PNA?  And you don't like that it is consistent with the weeklies runs of late,  and consistent with the seasonal runs of the ECMWF, which shows a great pattern for January?  

[luminen]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So you don't like the ridge building up in Alaska and the falling PNA?  And you don't like that it is consistent with the weeklies runs of late,  and consistent with the seasonal runs of the ECMWF, which shows a great pattern for January?  

Those January models can be taken with a grain of salt at this point. Anything past day 7-10 is wishful thinking.

All I see with that progression is varying shades of cold rain. 

[weatherwonder]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So you don't like the ridge building up in Alaska and the falling PNA?  And you don't like that it is consistent with the weeklies runs of late,  and consistent with the seasonal runs of the ECMWF, which shows a great pattern for January?  

Ya the overall pattern  change to call colder and snowier  is coming for sure in the long range

The signs are definitely there

I am still thinking we will latch on to a cooler snowier pattern around Christmas even though it’s not shown in the models yet

 

 

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... 850mb temp anomalies.

 

Wasted cold. Yay! 

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wasted cold. Yay! 

Hopefully no more east wind this winter. I remember 01/02/2016 days before leaving Wilsonville, that was brutal. lol

Nice sunshine but 35mph gusts with 33-34 degrees, yuck.

[Jesse]

12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So you don't like the ridge building up in Alaska and the falling PNA?  And you don't like that it is consistent with the weeklies runs of late,  and consistent with the seasonal runs of the ECMWF, which shows a great pattern for January?  

Might be better off trying to reason with this guy:

[Rubus Leucodermis]

From the Canadian forum, these are the analogues that Weatherbell is using in their long-range forecasts for this winter. Note that 49-50, 96-97, 08-09, etc. are not among them (sorry Jim).

1973-74
1974-75
1975-76
1995-96 (x2)
1998-99 (x2)
1999-00
2005-06
2007-08 (x2)
2010-11
2017-18

(x2) means that Weatherbell thought that analogue so good they chose to weight it twice what a normal analogue would be.

[luminen]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Might be better off trying to reason with this guy:

@ifred can we ban him already?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, luminen said:

Those January models can be taken with a grain of salt at this point. Anything past day 7-10 is wishful thinking.

All I see with that progression is varying shades of cold rain. 

You have to think January.  True, model runs cant be trusted past day 7.  Hell, even past day 4 or 5 is often wrong.  But you have to have context for everything.  Weeklies have been consistent, so far (lets hope todays is as good), you have La Nina, Westerly QBO, etc.  And seasonal experts expect this to happen.  No guarantees but the odds are pretty good this year.  And you have to give up on December, just get over that, it isn't happening for the West side in December. 

Truth be told, I really don't want the big arctic outbreaks..  For my location, big arctic outbreaks are often dry.  A 2007-2008 pattern would absolutely bury me in snow,  so my personal bias is not toward a huge arctic outbreak.  Just seasonal to slightly below normal temps, and normal to above normal precip works great for me.  

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, luminen said:

@ifred can we ban him already?

I like a bit of character on the forum. He's okay (for now) 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

From the Canadian forum, these are the analogues that Weatherbell is using in their long-range forecasts for this winter. Note that 49-50, 96-97, 08-09, etc. are not among them (sorry Jim).

1973-74
1974-75
1975-76
1995-96 (x2)
1998-99 (x2)
1999-00
2005-06
2007-08 (x2)
2010-11
2017-18

(x2) means that Weatherbell thought that analogue so good they chose to weight it twice what a normal analogue would be.

What's the Canadian weather forums called?

[luminen]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

You have to think January.  True, model runs cant be trusted past day 7.  Hell, even past day 4 or 5 is often wrong.  But you have to have context for everything.  Weeklies have been consistent, so far (lets hope todays is as good), you have La Nina, Westerly QBO, etc.  And seasonal experts expect this to happen.  No guarantees but the odds are pretty good this year.  And you have to give up on December, just get over that, it isn't happening for the West side in December. 

Truth be told, I really don't want the big arctic outbreaks..  For my location, big arctic outbreaks are often dry.  A 2007-2008 pattern would absolutely bury me in snow,  so my personal bias is not toward a huge arctic outbreak.  Just seasonal to slightly below normal temps, and normal to above normal precip works great for me.  

Yep, I am well aware the odds are stacked in our favor for January (and/or maybe even February).

But you know the drill, this is PNW lowland snow/cold we are talking about. It's not over till it's over! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What's the Canadian weather forums called?

Right here: https://forums.bcstorms.ca/

[Timmy Supercell]

I think I have only had one, maybe two winters where 3 consecutive months in a row gave me above average snowfall. December can do what it wants, after that is when La Nina should start to show its colors. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, luminen said:

@ifred can we ban him already?

Fred, please don’t. I would miss all his cute downvotes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Eugene definitely had a few inches with that arctic front in 2008. It started late in the evening down there, but it still counts.

Ah that's right. Weird how it doesn't show it on here. Makes me wonder if there are other days with a missing snow total.

xmACIS2.pdf

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

From the Canadian forum, these are the analogues that Weatherbell is using in their long-range forecasts for this winter. Note that 49-50, 96-97, 08-09, etc. are not among them (sorry Jim).

1973-74
1974-75
1975-76
1995-96 (x2)
1998-99 (x2)
1999-00
2005-06
2007-08 (x2)
2010-11
2017-18

(x2) means that Weatherbell thought that analogue so good they chose to weight it twice what a normal analogue would be.

Not encouraging for Willamette Valley snow. My area did great a few of those winters. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ah that's right. Weird how it doesn't show it on here. Makes me wonder if there are other days with a missing snow total.

Since 1996 snow measurements at most airport locations are spotty to non-existent. They have only been adding them back in recent years due to weather geek outcry. 

It definitely snowed in Eugene on 12/14/2008. I went to a Ducks game at Mac Court on the 17th and even though it had been raining most of the day there was still several inches of snow on the ground. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Since 1996 snow measurements at most airport locations are spotty to non-existent. They have only been adding them back in recent years due to weather geek outcry. 

It definitely snowed in Eugene on 12/14/2008. I went to a Ducks game at Mac Court on the 17th and even though it had been raining most of the day there was still several inches of snow on the ground. 

Our airport stopped way years back but that's why we have CoCoRaHs stations and thankfully we have a few installed here. Probably the best one though is OR-KL-5.

[weatherfan2012]

Agree lots of room for error in a storm that is complicated.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Since 1996 snow measurements at most airport locations are spotty to non-existent. They have only been adding them back in recent years due to weather geek outcry. 

It definitely snowed in Eugene on 12/14/2008. I went to a Ducks game at Mac Court on the 17th and even though it had been raining most of the day there was still several inches of snow on the ground. 

Yup, and there are other times when I remember being crossfaded and outside with my frat brothers with snow sometime in either Jan 2006 or 2007 and it's not on there either. Frustrating because it makes my attempts at presenting stats even worse.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS.  Pretty consistent with past runs, and it seems to me to be pretty consistent with the 46 day weeklies from last week.  Guessing the weeklies will be similar when it comes out later today.

 

Looks about as I expected. Aleutian ridge/Alaskan block coming. It'll get better from here.

18z GFS in 39 minutes

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Our airport stopped way years back but that's why we have CoCoRaHs stations and thankfully we have a few installed here. Probably the best one though is OR-KL-5.

I think Coco Rahs! was a breakfast cereal back when I was a kid?

(it snowed when I was a kid)

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Weeklies are out.  Again, these are 5 day 500mb anomalies, ending the day listed, so the actual anomaly for any given day is not shown.

 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

At first glance, very similar to the last run, maybe not quite as good, but really good to see no significant changes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What the hell?

[Deweydog]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

What the hell?

That’s a 10 day snowfall map.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Deweydog said:

That’s a 10 day snowfall map.

Yeah, won't verify but that low that comes in from the SW would certainly make things interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yup, and there are other times when I remember being crossfaded and outside with my frat brothers with snow sometime in either Jan 2006 or 2007 and it's not on there either. Frustrating because it makes my attempts at presenting stats even worse.

January 2007. My brother was going to UO then, he said it snowed. I don't remember how much, 2-3" I think. They had another snow in January 2008 where campus got about 4-5" of wet snow. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2007. My brother was going to UO then, he said it snowed. I don't remember how much, 2-3" I think. They had another snow in January 2008 where campus got about 4-5" of wet snow. 

Late Jan I think. I was driving back from getting a Wii for our frat house so we could play Smash Bros Brawl lol. Was sticking and depending on where one was, there were between 3-7" or so around campus. I was at 19th and Willamette then and we had a few inches but I don't remember exactly how much. Was young, stupid and didn't take a measurement.

[paulb/eugene]

Eugene:

December 2008