Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 The Pacific really wants to get going. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 At least I saw some snow during the 2009 bummer of a blast. FB memories come in handy! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Day 9.5 Here we go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Looks like a ridge, cold pool(maybe), "fake cold" Christmas Eve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Low on Thursday morning looking a bit healthier. Maybe a stealthy wind event. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 How much is this going to change between now and 00z runs Thursday/Friday.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 hours ago, weatherwonder said: Here it comes! And there it goes! Christmas miracles only happen in Hallmark movies. Drunk Uncle watches too much Hallmark. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: And there it goes! Christmas miracles only happen in Hallmark movies. Drunk Uncle watches too much Hallmark. Oof Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Much better run for inversion enthusiasts. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 I'm not going to lie, this is a very ugly run and much uglier after Day 9.... Barf city. Hoping the GEFS does not agree developing a fat Alaskan block. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Oof I might have to get out the sunscreen and short shorts for a ridge like that. Nice! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm not going to lie, this is a very ugly run and much uglier after Day 9.... Barf city. Hoping the GEFS does not agree developing a fat Alaskan block. From my eye it could improve near the end. Reinforcing shot coming out of Asia as the current block slightly retrogrades w/ a LW trough propagating around its northern perimeter. Still likely no cold snap within 384 hours on this run, but push it to 450 and you might have some luck. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: And there it goes! Christmas miracles only happen in Hallmark movies. Drunk Uncle watches too much Hallmark. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Meatyorologist said: From my eye it could improve near the end. Reinforcing shot coming out of Asia as the current block slightly retrogrades w/ a LW trough propagating around its northern perimeter. Still likely no cold snap within 384 hours on this run, but push it to 450 and you might have some luck. YEeeSssssSsssssss! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: And there it goes! Christmas miracles only happen in Hallmark movies. Drunk Uncle watches too much Hallmark. Oh good...More deep red over us...Wonderful. Seems like only neutral winters deliver active weather anymore. Would be nice to have one of those again. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Speaking of Xmas inversions, 2009 was a real gem. Had a lot of freezing fog the night before a we picked up a little offshore drift which cleared things out. It was about as thick I’ve ever seen frost on a clear morning. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: From my eye it could improve near the end. Reinforcing shot coming out of Asia as the current block slightly retrogrades w/ a LW trough propagating around its northern perimeter. Still likely no cold snap within 384 hours on this run, but push it to 450 and you might have some luck. All eyes are on January at this point. Based on the weeklies it seems like the ~5th is our first window for something. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Deweydog said: Speaking of Xmas inversions, 2009 was a real gem. Had a lot of freezing fog the night before a we picked up a little offshore drift which cleared things out. It was about as thick I’ve ever seen frost on a clear morning. Some magic happened a few days later. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Some magic happened a few days later. Doesn’t take much over the next few weeks... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: All eyes are on January at this point. Based on the weeklies it seems like the ~5th is our first window for something. A lot of our great Januaries really got going in that time frame. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 This frame is so hideous I kind of have to post it. 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: This frame is so hideous I kind of have to post it. La Kneenya! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, BLI snowman said: All eyes are on January at this point. Based on the weeklies it seems like the ~5th is our first window for something. For me it's too tough to say. The end of the month looks a bit messy, but this is still two weeks out. The solutions are flipping from run to run; the only consistencies being the presence of high latitude blocking returning, which in a -ENSO and +QBO year, as you might expect, usually results in something good. So I'm not really writing anything off for late December yet, but as I've said before there's a lot that can go wrong and even favorable HLB could result in a no show. Just have to wait and see. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Speaking of Xmas inversions, 2009 was a real gem. Had a lot of freezing fog the night before a we picked up a little offshore drift which cleared things out. It was about as thick I’ve ever seen frost on a clear morning. That was a really nice homegrown cold pool. We thread the needle perfectly on that one and had just the right balance for that event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 23 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Christmas miracles only happen in Hallmark movies. 2017. http://www.seattleweatherblog.com/snow/seattle-ties-mark-snowiest-christmas-100-years/ Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: This frame is so hideous I kind of have to post it. That is actually hilarious. I'd frame that if it were a 24hr map. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Some magic happened a few days later. Yup nice little snow event 12/29/2009 in Hillsboro. Parents were 2 hours late from work. Ended up doing tv dinners because of the traffic delays. Interesting I had snow events two years in a row on Dec 29th. The next one was a blizzard down here in 2010. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 The GEFS couldn't possibly be anywhere as ugly and disjointed as that Op run.... Nah... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: From my eye it could improve near the end. Reinforcing shot coming out of Asia as the current block slightly retrogrades w/ a LW trough propagating around its northern perimeter. Still likely no cold snap within 384 hours on this run, but push it to 450 and you might have some luck. Quite a block at the end of the run. Needs to retrograde a bit though, but maybe a start. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Quite a block at the end of the run. Needs to retrograde a bit though, but maybe a start. Yep... Waiting for the last frame to post it. We actually inexplicably get some backdoor cold on this one. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 From a surface standpoint that's probably the coldest long range look in quite awhile. Pacific actually largely shuts down. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, BLI snowman said: From a surface standpoint that's probably the coldest long range look in quite awhile. Pacific actually largely shuts down. GEFS should reflect a shutdown and after Day 12 in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Vampiric block at the end of the 00z. At face value this sucks, but a seasoned eye sees a lot of potential. Increasing chance at some increased blockiness towards the end of the month, and this placement is just one solution. Move this 1000 miles west (absolutely doable - nay, inevitable - at this range), and you're talking about displacing a ton of arctic air over our heads. Much better finish than the last couple of runs. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Yep... Waiting for the last frame to post it. We actually inexplicably get some backdoor cold on this one. Makes some sense. You’d think we’ll have some fairly impressive warm anomalies to give back by the time we get to the last week of the month. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 Last 60 hours of the run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 NP view 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 15, 2020 Report Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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