December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

I often wonder who on the forum takes the most pleasure in breaking the news that there is no ensemble support for this or that op run?  It’s a tight race between quite a few posters, all with creative ways of dispensing bad news with badly disguised giddiness (and exclamation points galore).  

[Omegaraptor]

Pretty much every recent GEFS has agreed on killing the Alaskan vortex as of late.

[MossMan]

41 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Who’s told who about this????

I already put in on the digital reader board at work that faces I-5. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

27 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

May I see your ensembles please?  No cold air across border without proper documents

Ensemble mean.  Getting better.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Tropical here in Culver this late afternoon.  My buddy Mr. Davis Vantage says we got up to 50.1 today.  Currently 46.2.

[Kayla]

No biggie, just a run of the mill 486dm line dropping into Montana on the 18z. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Timmy said:

Uncle doing uncle things 

 

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Beautiful wavedriving over the entirety of the pacific. This would be a week of colder weather at least.

I know its the Druncle, but all ensembles after Day 9-10 develop a Gulf of Alaska block. Of course the exact details as to its placement, strength, and degree of amplification nosing up through Alaska is unknown. As I mentioned a few nights ago, late week models should start to pick up on the big pattern change. I'm pretty confident on that. Here we go! C'MON!!!!

00z GFS in 3 hours 9 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 24 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

No biggie, just a run of the mill 486dm line dropping into Montana on the 18z. 

That will be 468dm as we move closer to the New Year into January.

[van city]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

 

 

I know its the Druncle, but all ensembles after Day 9-10 develop a Gulf of Alaska block. Of course the exact details as to its placement, strength, and degree of amplification nosing up through Alaska is unknown. As I mentioned a few nights ago, late week models should start to pick up on the big pattern change. I'm pretty confident on that. Here we go! C'MON!!!!

00z GFS in 3 hours 9 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 24 minutes

Think cold and snow!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

This is pretty cool, live vicariously through those that get real weather.  Live chat as well.

https://youtu.be/Cxp_5zpzJ5A

[weatherwonder]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That will be 468dm as we move closer to the New Year into January.

Nice to see the models starting to shift colder as we get closer to Christmas

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 10-16 500mb Height Anomaly. I don't hate this. Tons of potential ahead.

[MossMan]

It’s coming...

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming...

In our backdoor???

[Meatyorologist]

Nice last 5 days or so on the 18z GEFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

Starting the 23rd the Columbia Basin turns chilly persisting for over a week.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Korean model is aboard.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Korean model is aboard.

Korean seems to develop the pattern a bit more quickly. I don't hate this.

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In our backdoor???

No. Needs to be full frontal running from north to south. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Watching Frosty. Gotta live up to my username

[BLI snowman]

FYI, our greatest Januaries have all featured some level of cold starting out in the December 26-31 period. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

47 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

FYI, our greatest Januaries have all featured some level of cold starting out in the December 26-31 period. 

specifics?

 

 

 

 

[umadbro]

11 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

specifics?

 

 

 

 

Setup another one of your conference calls. I'm sure they have some.

[fubario]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Beautiful wavedriving over the entirety of the pacific. This would be a week of colder weather at least.

KONA LOW

[TheNewCulverJosh]

The Shining is on right now.  Any analogs?

[jakerepp]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Watching Frosty. Gotta live up to my username

We watched it on Saturday. It’s...far creepier than I remember.

[Jesse]

14 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

The Shining is on right now.  Any analogs?

Specifics??

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

The Shining is on right now.  Any analogs?

1948, 1950, 1951, 1953, 1955, 1964, 1965, 1969, 1971, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2008, 2016, 2019

[Jesse]

50/41 day here today. Morning rain followed by scattered showers and SW winds. 

Still on the mild side at 47 out there.

[Jesse]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

1948, 1950, 1951, 1953, 1955, 1964, 1965, 1969, 1971, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2008, 2016, 2019

Some of those were not very good winters. You aren't playing this game right.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

1948, 1950, 1951, 1953, 1955, 1964, 1965, 1969, 1971, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2008, 2016, 2019

Considering it came out in 1980........let's start at 1985 :).  But I like your style.

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Watching Frosty. Gotta live up to my username

I'm assuming it's cold enough in your place that the snowman in the bottom right is made of actual snow.

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

The Shining is on right now.  Any analogs?

In 1980, Portland had a low of 60 degrees on Christmas Day.

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

In 1980, Portland had a low of 60 degrees on Christmas Day.

 

Ya, just looked it up.  A 64/60 day........the weenies would be out in full force today.

[Deweydog]

Why is the carpet all wet, Todd???

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Why is the carpet all wet, Todd???

I don’t know...MARGO!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Ladies and Gentleman, Dogs, Cats(and other furry, feathered, or other pets) here we go!

 

00z GFS Day 1

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

FYI, our greatest Januaries have all featured some level of cold starting out in the December 26-31 period. 

Agree, back when I lived in PDX seemed like those days leading up into the first week of January were the common time for cold and snow!  70s and 80s. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3