December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Bering Sea trough further west. Hmmm....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like it could get to cold to snow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Well, that's very different

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Not far from going into a chilly and maybe cold pattern much sooner.

[Gradient Keeper]

Still bit too progressive, but if this is a trend.. Can't rule out an arctic blast for Christmas.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[OysterPrintout]

Me trying to get these maps into a christmas blast CMON

 

[FroYoBro]

Big improvements on the 0z so far. 

[Gradient Keeper]

It would be really nice if that ridge either developed further west setting up around ~150 W, or flattened so the bitter air in BC, AK, YK isn't flushed out by the ridge.

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

Me trying to get these maps into a christmas blast CMON

 

Exactly! 

[Gradient Keeper]

I don't hate this

[FroYoBro]

WARNING SHOT!

[paulb/eugene]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.5 chilly NWLY onshore flow

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 Well, that's very different

 

Totally caved to the Euro, to no one's surprise.

[Deweydog]

YOU’VE ALL BEEN WARNED!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

If we go right into a big ridge we could develop a strong cold pool.... Fake cold blast

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

I am focusing entirely on the big improvements noted Day 4 to 6. I hope to see models trend to develop that ridge a bit further west with kona sitting under it and thus the Bering Sea trough held back near Kamchatka. Do I expect that trend to continue? No, but hoping so.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is a nice cold shot early next week on this run. Good to see.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[weatherwonder]

15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7

patience weenies!

anything past day 7 in the model’s is useless at this point 

give it a few more days and we should start moving into prime time

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM at Day 4 trending similarly.

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM not too similar by Day 5 though

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Not much of a block in the clown range, compared to the Drunk Uncle.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12 minutes ago, weatherwonder said:

patience weenies!

anything past day 7 in the model’s is useless at this point 

give it a few more days and we should start moving into prime time

 

Just curious as to your reasoning.  Not saying you are wrong, how would I know?  But we would really like to hear your train of thought, other than "Its coming".

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  The GFS is a wee bit colder on the trough early next week.  Thickness drops to 519 over SEA on this run.

[GHweatherChris]

Yawn

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Not much of a block in the clown range, compared to the Drunk Uncle.

The improvement on that trough in the believable range gives me lots of hope.  Pretty typical to have something like that before the big stuff.

[Meatyorologist]

GFS is about to turn up a block here at the end.

[MossMan]

Chris is not on board. 

[snow_wizard]

This GFS run makes the snow the 12z ECMWF was showing early next week seem really possible.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Chris is not on board. 

I think just the cold snap early next week is a pretty big deal.  That is legit cold on this run.  As Justin pointed out earlier that type of behavior in late December is classic before a good January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, iFred said:

Kind of not looking forward to our future climate.

The ice age? 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Kind of not looking forward to our future climate.

Same. That's why I root for these snow events, as rare as they may be. There will be fewer and fewer with time; might as well enjoy these to the best of my ability.

[snow_wizard]

Look like another small cold snap late in the run.  Way better than climo on this run overall.