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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Holy crap!  the 12z ECMWF and 12Z WRF both show me getting 6 or more inches of snow here early next week.  This is the time of year we can pull it off without a major cold airmass in place or an Arctic front.  The ECMWF shows some baroclinicity with the system.  Shades of Dec 1974 perhaps.

18z took it away and pushed it into Portland

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Just to show you how fast the snow accumulates here. At the beginning of Feb 2019 there was no snow on the ground and this houses lawn was showing. This picture was Feb 15th.

20190215_065543.jpg

Snow loves to melt here between storms and doesn't stay around long.

I had a 20+ inch depth only once over a period of 10 years in this area. It looks like it does that every other time it snows there. 🤪

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

What a wonderful climate. Do you get thunderstorms often during the summer as well?

Spring time we usually get about 3 Thunderstorm days. Summer time Monsoon we get 3-12 days of Thunderstorms.

We occasionally get extremely deep hail in the summer time storms. I had 9" of hail on the level back in 2015 that stayed around for two days! 

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2 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Does anyone have the 18Z ECMWF frames for the storm?  

Has not come out yet and the 18Z run only goes out to 90 hours for the surface maps which just gets us to Sunday evening.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, AlTahoe said:

Spring time we usually get about 3 Thunderstorm days. Summer time Monsoon we get 3-12 days of Thunderstorms.

We occasionally get extremely deep hail in the summer time storms. I had 9" of hail on the level back in 2015 that stayed around for two days! 

Wild.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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18z GFS surface obs for SEA show three day with highs below 40 and several freezing low temps now.  The plot thickens!

FWIW the 12z ECMWF surface obs showed McChord plunging to 15 after the snowstorm.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Spring time we usually get about 3 Thunderstorm days. Summer time Monsoon we get 3-12 days of Thunderstorms.

We occasionally get extremely deep hail in the summer time storms. I had 9" of hail on the level back in 2015 that stayed around for two days! 

My kind of weather! About what's your annual count of t'storms normally? A couple years I had over 20, but a dozen or so is my typical.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

18z GFS surface obs for SEA show three day with highs below 40 and several freezing low temps now.  The plot thickens!

FWIW the 12z ECMWF surface obs showed McChord plunging to 15 after the snowstorm.

Snowstorms canceled for puget sound for now. Plenty of time to change tho.

  • Snow 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

18z took it away and pushed it into Portland

The ECMWF has been incredibly consistent with the track over the past several runs.  At any rate it appears somebody has a shot at some decent snowfall.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Spring time we usually get about 3 Thunderstorm days. Summer time Monsoon we get 3-12 days of Thunderstorms.

We occasionally get extremely deep hail in the summer time storms. I had 9" of hail on the level back in 2015 that stayed around for two days! 

The mid/late summer months tend to be better especially east of Tahoe in the Washoe Valley/Virginia/Silver City area/s, and again east of DT Reno (east towards area/s like Patrick, Fernley and Pyramid Lake).

Another area for good storms in the Truckee/Reno areas is NW of DT Reno along the east crest of the Sierra between Truckee and NE into the Verdi to Portola area/s along the CA/NV border/s.

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has been incredibly consistent with the track over the past several runs.  At any rate it appears somebody has a shot at some decent snowfall.

ECMWF has been all over the place with lowland snow... the 00Z run did not show anything at all for western WA.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Prediction. There will not be widespread lowland snowfall next Monday. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It's pretty remarkable how impressive the little cold snap early next week has become on the last few runs.  It actually looks respectable now.

  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has been all over the place with lowland snow... the 00Z run did not show anything at all for western WA.  

It must have been the 12z yesterday.  It looked very similar to today's 12z.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

Aren't you supposed to wait for more hope to build up before seeing a single bad model run and then say this

True. I need to remember that. Sorry let me make an amended statement.

 

SOMEONE BETWEEN BLI AND EUG IS GOING TO GET BURIED!!!!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Prediction. There will not be widespread lowland snowfall next Monday. 

The numbers are there.  Placement is a huge question though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Tim 2.0 

Picking up the slack 'eh Andrew?

Someone has to do it. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The ECMWF weeklies continue to insist a good pattern is coming up, but it happens a bit later now.  Still shows a good January.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

My kind of weather! About what's your annual count of t'storms normally? A couple years I had over 20, but a dozen or so is my typical.

I would say a dozen days where I can hear thunder for an hour or more. Probably 6 thunder days with precip. Most summer days here are a cloudless 82F in the afternoon and upper 30's low 40's at night 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

True. I need to remember that. Sorry let me make an amended statement.

 

SOMEONE BETWEEN BLI AND EUG IS GOING TO GET BURIED!!!!

Port Angeles and Lake Smammich get ultra blasted.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s pretty borderline still. 

Both the ECMWF and WRF showed 925mb temps below zero.  With heavy precip rates that's a go for snow.  If a baroclinic zone actually sets up with heavy precip rates I think there will be snow at least down to couple hundred feet.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF weeklies continue to insist a good pattern is coming up, but it happens a bit later now.  Still shows a good January.

Seems like a mirage at this point. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Bolded the key word there. Gives you an easy out when someone gets snow on Monday. "I said no widespread snow."

I see your play here.

It's kind of irritating when we have a legit shot at something and the naysayers come out of the woodwork.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like a mirage at this point. 

Our moderate Nina / +QBO / low solar base state indicates a good chance of some winter here before it's over.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Bolded the key word there. Gives you an easy out when someone gets snow on Monday. "I said no widespread snow."

I see your play here.

I don't mind defining it in more narrow terms. I would be stunned to see a large area of sticking (1"+) snow below 500', maybe some favored areas like Snowmizer's area or in  C-zone area post front, but say from Everett to Olympia or PDX to Albany. Doubtful. Would love to be wrong though. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's kind of irritating when we have a legit shot at something and the naysayers come out of the woodwork.

The good news is our vibes, feelings, and opinions mean nothing in the grand scheme of what will actually happen. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's kind of irritating when we have a legit shot at something and the naysayers come out of the woodwork.

There’s a realistic chance of it not happening too. Nothing wrong with people not jumping on board a marginal event 4 days out. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Our moderate Nina / +QBO / low solar base state indicates a good chance of some winter here before it's over.

I'm expecting to get buried late February/early March. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm expecting to get buried late February/early March. 

Definitely the “easiest” call at this point.

We’re definitely in the ENSO trap at the moment.  If it’s a warm event, we’re quick to embrace ENSO lag while now that lag is kind of excruciating.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm expecting to get buried late February/early March. 

Or like 2014, snowstorms first week of Feb then I get 65 degrees and spring like weather end of the month. lol

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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