December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[van city]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So we're just going to ignore the 18z then?

Maybe we should ignore 18z RGEM then? 

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

The S-word was mentioned in passing by the Seattle AFD. 

Autonomous Fire Department?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't mind defining it in more narrow terms. I would be stunned to see a large area of sticking (1"+) snow below 500', maybe some favored areas like Snowmizer's area or in  C-zone area post front, but say from Everett to Olympia or PDX to Albany. Doubtful. Would love to be wrong though. 

If I remember correctly, Snowmizer, like Mossman, lives above 500'.

[wxmet]

GEFS 18z has some ensemble members with good low placement to support snowfall in western Washington

[kokaneekidz]

22 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Autonomous Fire Department?

They protect the CHOP zone

[Gradient Keeper]

18z OP. One word, "Anafront", but they are very tricky to forecast where the exact narrow corridor(usually) of moisture sets up, does temps aloft cool enough? do the gradients turn flat which is needed or perhaps light easterly/northerly, and are precip rates heavy and steady enough to progressively draw the snow level towards the surface. No idea. Stay tuned. Probably not. No. Stay tuned.

 

18z GEFS. At least we score a solid and persistent Columbia Basin cold pool. Yay!

[kokaneekidz]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z OP. One word, "Anafront", but they are very tricky to forecast where the exact narrow corridor(usually) of moisture sets up, does temps aloft cool enough? do the gradients turn flat which is needed or perhaps light easterly/northerly, and are precip rates heavy and steady enough to progressively draw the snow level towards the surface. No idea. Stay tuned. Probably not. No. Stay tuned.

 

18z GEFS. At least we score a solid and persistent Columbia Basin cold pool. Yay!

 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

The S-word was mentioned in passing by the Seattle AFD. 

We're in uncharted territory now.

[MossMan]

My drainage got a workout today...1.41” so far on the day.

42 degrees.

[Bonovox]

1 hour ago, wxmet said:

GEFS 18z has some ensemble members with good low placement to support snowfall in western Washington

Here they are.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z OP. One word, "Anafront", but they are very tricky to forecast where the exact narrow corridor(usually) of moisture sets up, does temps aloft cool enough? do the gradients turn flat which is needed or perhaps light easterly/northerly, and are precip rates heavy and steady enough to progressively draw the snow level towards the surface. No idea. Stay tuned. Probably not. No. Stay tuned.

 

18z GEFS. At least we score a solid and persistent Columbia Basin cold pool. Yay!

No doubt good precip intensity and being on the north side of the zone of lowest pressure will be essential for snow with this.  The 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF were showing a perfect scenario for snow for the Central and South Puget Sound.  If the event were to unfold as either model showed it would be snow, but as we all know the models are just a possible outcome.

[Chewbacca Defense]

On 12/16/2020 at 12:31 PM, iFred said:

Truth be told, I love Canada. Flying out of YVR is better than SEA, the CBP was nicer that the American DHS, and Tim's coffee isn't all that bad.

When we first moved up here the CBP was always super nice, but my last few times they were rather grumpy....its like they had been taking American classes or something.

 

I've always wondered for both Border Patrol groups if they sit around in their briefing at the start of the shift...."raise your hand if you want to be nice today"...(about 1/2 raise their hand)..."ok, the rest of you will be total d**ks."

 

 

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

My drainage got a workout today...1.41” so far on the day.

42 degrees.

Almost no rain here and it was partly sunny most of the day. 0.19" in the bucket, but that all fell before I woke up.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Almost no rain here and it was partly sunny most of the day. 0.19" in the bucket, but that all feel before I woke up.

Wow! Yeah we had heavy rain throughout the morning, it pretty much ended by noon. 

[paulb/eugene]

The Braunschweiger model still says kein Schnee for I-5

[Front Ranger]

The cold dump into the lower 48 next week is looking increasingly impressive.

[paulb/eugene]

Who’s got the Korean model? What’s it say?

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

Who’s got the Korean model? What’s it say?

[paulb/eugene]

My dog says we are screwed

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Meatyorologist]

The energy that will become Monday's ridge is exiting Asia right now. Looks about the same as the 18z, maybe a little more amplified. Root for amplification!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

Kinda looks like the trough is doing cpr on the mid west.....what does this mean? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

Kinda looks like the trough is doing cpr on the mid west.....what does this mean? 

We're reviving the winter season, of course.

[Esquimalt]

Perhaps too far north for everybody on this run lol.  Stand by. 

[Esquimalt]

Holy crap..  Bullseye for Vic! Anyone have snow maps?

[Meatyorologist]

Deeper with that trough. Seems to be directly related to the early evolution of that block. Started off more amplified, drew more cold air southward ahead of it, then slowed down in amplification. Didn't matter though, since it already drew some colder air in front of it.

[OysterPrintout]

little northern swerve 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(Past 4 runs)

[Esquimalt]

Anymore north though and everyone is screwed haha

[wxmet]

Not a bad run. More amplified than 12z due to the blocking to the east. Probably don't want to be in the bulls-eye this far out anyways.

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol well looks like I won’t be missing out on a snow event after all. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Feeling better about my bold prediction. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[Esquimalt]

Looks like the canadian suite of models (RGEM and I'm assuming GEM) will want to take it even further north into central vancouver island like the icon.  Here's hoping they're both off their rockers and the euro and the gfs will hold steady. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Strong east wind by Christmas Eve morning. No changes there.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(Past 4 runs)

[SouthHillFrosty]

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NW interior/VI folks the winner on this run.

Anyone's guess where it ends up.. 

 

WOW! I really need to move to Port Angles. They have been getting hammered in the past couple years.