BLI snowman Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Victoria does look to be in a decent position right now. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 7 Welcome back, La Nina! What a change from 4-5 days ago! (Past 4 runs) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 8 Really hoping models over the next 3-4 days trend to weaken that goliath Greenland block. Fat chance. Husky chance. Big boned chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 9'er 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z GFS is back to showing lots of snow... Even with the sharper/deeper trough. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Winter uncancel after the cancel and the uncancel. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 Really hoping models over the next 3-4 days trend to weaken that goliath Greenland block. Fat chance. Husky chance. Big boned chance. It's a doozy. More blocking is almost always better to have around than less, though... especially as it can easily morph to a more favorable position. 2 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: It's a doozy. More blocking is almost always better to have around than less, though... especially as it can easily morph to a more favorable position. I would be fine with it ejecting west-southwest ending up over BC dragging the Hudson's Bay PV over us. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Better than a big vortex over Greenland right? 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Yesterdays 12Z, same hour 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 You could say the models are in flux right now... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 Really hoping models over the next 3-4 days trend to weaken that goliath Greenland block. Fat chance. Husky chance. Big boned chance. Better to have the block than to not have it. Helps suppress the storm track, give beneficial precip to SW US, lower PDO/PMM, and in this case, aid in the destruction of the polar vortex. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Yesterdays 12Z, same hour Literally a 180° flip. +NAO/+PNA to -NAO/suppressed jet w/ symmetry. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 00z sure is dynamic with Monday's system. Cool to see the system strengthening that much after landfall. Definite potential for a quick dump of heavy wet snow to the immediate NW of that low. South Vancouver Island is in a pretty good spot with maybe a 10-15% chance for parts of the Puget Sound region IMO. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 ghost in the machine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonovox Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 I know it's the NAM, but whatever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 00z is not spectacular by any means. The pattern is still a bit of a mess but it's 100X better than garbage like the 12z today. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Definitely trended a bit south over the past 3 runs. It seems like they've done real work to correct its bias to bring storms in too far South. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, bainbridgekid said: It seems like they've done real work to correct its bias to bring storms in too far South. Still some time left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 hours ago, paulb/eugene said: The following night it got to 6F at home but -10F at airport. 1950 will happen again, as well as 1861 and 1547, 1241, 799, 563, 239. Just no weather records from them. Tornado wiped out village on Kalapuya river 1642. I had to take a break to see the Ducks absolutely destroy the trojans, but Dec 2013 is definitely in my top 3 Eugene events. I got to -2 at my location in town and had a sub 2 temp for 3 straight days with 6 inches of no chance of melting snow on the ground. There has been a couple of loosely documented tornadoes in town. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 00z sure is dynamic with Monday's system. Cool to see the system strengthening that much after landfall. Definite potential for a quick dump of heavy wet snow to the immediate NW of that low. South Vancouver Island is in a pretty good spot with maybe a 10-15% chance for parts of the Puget Sound region IMO. Yep. Good eye and analysis on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Textbook -NAM/-NAO w/ moat of low heights spanning the middle latitudes. This is how we used to run our winters back in the 18th/19th centuries. Simply beautiful. 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonovox Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Definitely trended a bit south over the past 3 runs. Would like to see it go a little more. The GEFS definitely showing a more consolidated southern track. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 I see the models continue to flip flop on the snow potential next week. Hmm. It’s gonna come down to the wire! In other news, I got word today that Hyundai will be replacing my cars engine for free as part of their extended warranty program on it! 5 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Definitely trended a bit south over the past 3 runs. Would like to see it go a little more. The GEM did as well. As did the RDPS and the NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, dolt said: I had to take a break to see the Ducks absolutely destroy the trojans, but Dec 2013 is definitely in my top 3 Eugene events. I got to -2 at my location in town and had a sub 2 temp for 3 straight days with 6 inches of no chance of melting snow on the ground. There has been a couple of loosely documented tornadoes in town. That was such a great event! That was a weird winter at my place. Two great arctic events with snow and no other snow. Pretty insane we had 2X as much snow last winter. We only got about 1.5" with that December snow event, but did manage to have a 23/2 and 21/2 days. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Phil said: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitosis 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 No action here on the GFS, onto the EC! Oh yeah, Go Ducks!! 2 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonovox Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Models seem to be struggling with the strength of the low. Those that deepen it as it approaches the coast have it trend north as expected and vice versa. This one will probably be a nowcast scenario. Right now a track between Nanaimo and Forks seems to be in play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonovox Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 And now we wait for the mighty Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That was such a great event! That was a weird winter at my place. Two great arctic events with snow and no other snow. Pretty insane we had 2X as much snow last winter. We only got about 1.5" with that December snow event, but did manage to have a 23/2 and 21/2 days. That was one weird but awesome winter here in Eugene. Two absolutely terrific events to bookend a very blah middle, including the mountains. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, dolt said: That was one weird but awesome winter here in Eugene. Two absolutely terrific events to bookend a very blah middle, including the mountains. I hiked the Table Rock trail on January 5th 2014. The summit is over 4800’ and there was barely any snow at the top. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: This looks nice... Looks like about 8-10 inches of snow here after a high close to 60 on Monday afternoon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 For what it's worth, the 00z GEM is nothing remotely close to the GFS Op. Day 7-10 GIF ends up pretty nice. Do I believe the GEM? Not really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Back to the EURO. Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonovox Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 00z Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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