December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

Victoria does look to be in a decent position right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7  Welcome back, La Nina! What a change from 4-5 days ago!

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Really hoping models over the next 3-4 days trend to weaken that goliath Greenland block. Fat chance. Husky chance. Big boned chance.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Front Ranger]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS is back to showing lots of snow...

 

 

Even with the sharper/deeper trough.

[TacomaWaWx]

Winter uncancel after the cancel and the uncancel. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 Really hoping models over the next 3-4 days trend to weaken that goliath Greenland block. Fat chance. Husky chance. Big boned chance.

It's a doozy. More blocking is almost always better to have around than less, though... especially as it can easily morph to a more favorable position.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's a doozy. More blocking is almost always better to have around than less, though... especially as it can easily morph to a more favorable position.

I would be fine with it ejecting west-southwest ending up over BC dragging the Hudson's Bay PV over us. lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Better than a big vortex over Greenland right?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Yesterdays 12Z, same hour

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You could say the models are in flux right now...

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8 Really hoping models over the next 3-4 days trend to weaken that goliath Greenland block. Fat chance. Husky chance. Big boned chance.

Better to have the block than to not have it. Helps suppress the storm track, give beneficial precip to SW US, lower PDO/PMM, and in this case, aid in the destruction of the polar vortex. 

 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yesterdays 12Z, same hour

Literally a 180° flip.

+NAO/+PNA to -NAO/suppressed jet w/ symmetry.

[bainbridgekid]

00z sure is dynamic with Monday's system. Cool to see the system strengthening that much after landfall. Definite potential for a quick dump of heavy wet snow to the immediate NW of that low. South Vancouver Island is in a pretty good spot with maybe a 10-15% chance for parts of the Puget Sound region IMO.

 

 

 

[fubario]

ghost in the machine

[Bonovox]

 

I know it's the NAM, but whatever.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z is not spectacular by any means. The pattern is still a bit of a mess but it's 100X better than garbage like the 12z today. 

[bainbridgekid]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Definitely trended a bit south over the past 3 runs.

It seems like they've done real work to correct its bias to bring storms in too far South.

[FroYoBro]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

It seems like they've done real work to correct its bias to bring storms in too far South.

Still some time left. 

[Dave]

4 hours ago, paulb/eugene said:

The following night it got to 6F at home but -10F at airport.

1950 will happen again, as well as 1861 and 1547, 1241, 799, 563, 239. Just no weather records from them.  Tornado wiped out village on Kalapuya river 1642.  
 

I had to take a break to see the Ducks absolutely destroy the trojans, but Dec 2013 is definitely in my top 3 Eugene events. I got to -2 at my location in town and had a sub 2 temp for 3 straight days with 6 inches of no chance of melting snow on the ground.

There has been a couple of loosely documented tornadoes in town. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

00z sure is dynamic with Monday's system. Cool to see the system strengthening that much after landfall. Definite potential for a quick dump of heavy wet snow to the immediate NW of that low. South Vancouver Island is in a pretty good spot with maybe a 10-15% chance for parts of the Puget Sound region IMO.

 

 

 

Yep. Good eye and analysis on that.

[Phil]

Textbook -NAM/-NAO w/ moat of low heights spanning the middle latitudes.

This is how we used to run our winters back in the 18th/19th centuries. Simply beautiful.

[Bonovox]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Definitely trended a bit south over the past 3 runs. Would like to see it go a little more.

 

 

The GEFS definitely showing a more consolidated southern track.

[Phil]

[jakerepp]

I see the models continue to flip flop on the snow potential next week. Hmm.

It’s gonna come down to the wire!

In other news, I got word today that Hyundai will be replacing my cars engine for free as part of their extended warranty program on it!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Definitely trended a bit south over the past 3 runs. Would like to see it go a little more.

The GEM did as well.  As did the RDPS and the NAM

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, dolt said:

I had to take a break to see the Ducks absolutely destroy the trojans, but Dec 2013 is definitely in my top 3 Eugene events. I got to -2 at my location in town and had a sub 2 temp for 3 straight days with 6 inches of no chance of melting snow on the ground.

There has been a couple of loosely documented tornadoes in town. 

That was such a great event! That was a weird winter at my place. Two great arctic events with snow and no other snow. Pretty insane we had 2X as much snow last winter. We only got about 1.5" with that December snow event, but did manage to have a 23/2 and 21/2 days. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitosis

[TigerWoodsLibido]

No action here on the GFS, onto the EC!

Oh yeah, Go Ducks!!

[Bonovox]

 

Models seem to be struggling with the strength of the low. Those that deepen it as it approaches the coast have it trend north as expected and vice versa. This one will probably be a nowcast scenario. Right now a track between Nanaimo and Forks seems to be in play.

[Bonovox]

And now we wait for the mighty Euro...

[Dave]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was such a great event! That was a weird winter at my place. Two great arctic events with snow and no other snow. Pretty insane we had 2X as much snow last winter. We only got about 1.5" with that December snow event, but did manage to have a 23/2 and 21/2 days. 

That was one weird but awesome winter here in Eugene. Two absolutely terrific events to bookend a very blah middle, including the mountains.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, dolt said:

That was one weird but awesome winter here in Eugene. Two absolutely terrific events to bookend a very blah middle, including the mountains.

I hiked the Table Rock trail on January 5th 2014. The summit is over 4800’ and there was barely any snow at the top. 

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This looks nice...

Looks like about 8-10 inches of snow here after a high close to 60 on Monday afternoon.    

[Gradient Keeper]

For what it's worth, the 00z GEM is nothing remotely close to the GFS Op.

Day 7-10 GIF ends up pretty nice. Do I believe the GEM? Not really.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the EURO. Day 2

[Bonovox]

 

00z Euro.