Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Wow glad see I didn’t miss much....EXCEPT FOR SNOW MAPS!! LETS GO 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, Bonovox said: 00z Euro. Weaker solution would be preferred. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonovox Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 00z Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 00Z ECMWF coming in south as well... already lots of snow up north through noon on Monday. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Tim probably will end up with close to a foot and another white Christmas. Sucks living to far south for that to be a possibility, pretty much ever. 1 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonovox Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 00z Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I hiked the Table Rock trail on January 5th 2014. The summit is over 4800’ and there was barely any snow at the top. Really hoping I can do a snowy hike at Silver Falls this winter. From the pics I've seen online it looks gorgeous in the snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 00Z looks like the GFS... this is through 9 p.m. on Monday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tim probably will end up with close to a foot and another white Christmas. Sucks living to far south for that to be a possibility, pretty much ever. You live at 1600’, don’t tell me you never have snow around on Christmas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Timmy said: You live at 1600’, don’t tell me you never have snow around on Christmas He is the biggest weenie on the board. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Timmy said: You live at 1600’, don’t tell me you never have snow around on Christmas Not compared to Tim. Only once have I had snow on the ground since 2011 (2015). Obviously there would have been snow in 2008, and 2007. And that is probably it since 2000. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tim probably will end up with close to a foot and another white Christmas. Sucks living to far south for that to be a possibility, pretty much ever. Sort of the norm in this area it seems... its been pretty typical to have snow on Christmas during our 16 years here. It happens more often than not. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z looks like the GFS... this is through 9 p.m. on Monday. Bro I got to move to Port Angeles. They get hammered every year it seems like. I wonder how many inches they get per year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: He is the biggest weenie on the board. Oh he knows. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Not compared to Tim. Only once have I had snow on the ground since 2011 (2015). Obviously there would have been snow in 2008, and 2007. And that is probably it since 2000. Wow, I think I had snow on the ground 3 out of 5 winters when I was near Portland at 1500’. I think you usually did better than me on snow averages too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Euro looks real nice. Great track for areas North and East of Seattle. Nice to see a Southern trend for once potentially! 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Sort of the norm in this area it seems... its been pretty typical to have snow on Christmas during our 16 years here. It happens more often than not. Just doesn’t happen this far south. We have to wait until nearly spring when there is better upper level support. I would trade you my March 2012 snow for a white Christmas. Lol Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, bainbridgekid said: Euro looks real nice. Great track for areas North and East of Seattle. Nice to see a Southern trend for once potentially! Keep it coming south! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Oh he knows. It’s just snow. I’m sure you will see some Monday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Best chance is definitely north and east of Seattle above 500’ obviously. people near the sound and below 500’ are gonna have a tough time getting accumulating snowfall. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Timmy said: Wow, I think I had snow on the ground 3 out of 5 winters when I was near Portland at 1500’. I think you usually did better than me on snow averages too. Yeah, but you did well with offshore flow if I recall, and Tim gets favored in offshore flow situations too. Once we get into February and March is when it seems like we do really well. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 The 500mb trough is much weaker on this run compared to the previous runs which pushed the storm track further south. Would be nice to see this trend a bit more south for Seattle. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Hopefully someone scores something atleast. Razor thin margin but it’s definitely possible...I won’t be here I’ll be in Texas but definitely hoping for some snow! Here in Tacoma at 300’ near the sound it probably won’t amount to much anyways. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Best chance is definitely north and east of Seattle above 500’ obviously. people near the sound and below 500’ are gonna have a tough time getting accumulating snowfall. I am nervously/excitedly watching this. I am right on the line of 500’. Not putting much stock into it... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Hoping for some flakes to fly. Being on the northern end of the city can help in situations like these, but obviously given my elevation, I don't expect anything in the way of significantly accumulating snowfall (more than a slushy trace) unless the pattern fundamentally changes. Either way, it's something fun to track! 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 I will be happy if anyone below 500’ gets snow. Something tells me Randy has a good shot to score! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Pretty impressive at KSEA 4pm Monday. Taken verbatim would be moderate to heavy snow with that kind of forcing in the DGZ. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: I am nervously/excitedly watching this. I am right on the line of 500’. Not putting much stock into it... You’ll probably get something atleast if this verifies. Temps are pretty marginal unfortunately looks like a lot of the precip falls during the daytime. Few hours later or earlier would really boost the odds. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah, but you did well with offshore flow if I recall, and Tim gets favored in offshore flow situations too. Once we get into February and March is when it seems like we do really well. Yeah we were right in line with the gorge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 It would be nice to see the timing get pushed back even a couple hours. Best forcing for Seattle on the GFS and EURO is around 1-5PM and pushing that back to even 3-7PM would make a significant difference. Also worth watching for CZ development Monday evening. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Christmas Eve 4 AM. PDX 'warmer' 34 due to strong east wind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: It would be nice to see the timing get pushed back even a couple hours. Best forcing for Seattle on the GFS and EURO is around 1-5PM and pushing that back to even 3-7PM would make a significant difference. Also worth watching for CZ development Monday evening. Oh, there will definitely be a PSCZ and a vigorous one, the flow out of the NNW after the frontal passage will be more than strong enough for upslope forcing. I expect Tim to have no less than 10-13 inches by Tuesday morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 ECMWF shows lots of snow down to sea level... here is a zoomed in map. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Blah still. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jbolin said: Oh, there will definitely be a PSCZ and a vigorous one, the flow out of the NNW after the frontal passage will be more than strong enough for upslope forcing. I expect Tim to have no less than 10-13 inches by Tuesday morning. Here is the placement of the c-zone at 1 a.m. on Tuesday morning... this is 1-hour precip and not snow but obviously its all snow at that time. This map better depicts the location of the c-zone at its peak. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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