December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[The Swamp]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Models think puyallyupjon will outdo Mossman with this. 

That would be a first. 

I don't "outdo" anyone, ever.  This is not going to be a first.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow.  It was actually 17 years ago when we had that baroclinic band snowfall I referenced in an earlier post.   Time sure flies.

Was gonna say, 11/19/03 was probably what you're thinking of. Almost a legal adult now!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

OLM is +3.4 through yesterday, good chance they bump that up to +4 or so before the cooler pattern emerges.

That kind of mildness in the early part of a Nina winter is often a good sign for mid to late winter.

[Chewbacca Defense]

I think there will probably be a lot of window licking somewhere in the Puget Sound region...

[crf450ish]

Currently in Medford Oregon at the hotel....on my way to Phoenix for Xmas vacation. It's 50 degrees and overcast. Can't wait to get down to Burbank, CA and meet up with friends and have some beers. Phoenix real estate market is booming. Owning a home in Western Washington and Phoenix is the way to go! Air BnB the AZ home during summer  and use it for vacations in the winter. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[FroYoBro]

Pretty stormy right now. Moderate rain and wind gusts to around 30. 

[The Swamp]

1 minute ago, crf450ish said:

Currently in Medford Oregon at the hotel....on my way to Phoenix for Xmas vacation. It's 50 degrees and overcast. Can't wait to get down to Burbank, CA and meet up with friends and have some beers. Phoenix real estate market is booming. Owning a home in Western Washington and Phoenix is the way to go! Air BnB the AZ home during summer  and use it for vacations in the winter. 

Wow.  That does sound like a good deal.  Good for you for being able to afford two homes.  Very nice!

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Quite the gradient

That's quite something actually.

[BLI snowman]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That kind of mildness in the early part of a Nina winter is often a good sign for mid to late winter.

Sometimes. Mild Decembers in a moderate to strong Nina are more common than people think. 2010, 1999, 1995, 1988, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1950 (warmest December on record) ...... some of those worked out and some of them didn't.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 NOPE! This is getting boring and discouraging to be honest

[The Swamp]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That's quite something actually.

That is a neat map.  Very interesting.

[The Swamp]

63 in the Tri Cities and 34 in Tacoma.  wow

[kokaneekidz]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's quite something actually.

It's madness. Snow at SeaTac with 35degrees temp while 41 in Wenatchee and 57 in moses lake. It is wild!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

63 in the Tri Cities and 34 in Tacoma.  wow

Models on drugs.  That will never happen.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Blizzard777]

16 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Pretty stormy right now. Moderate rain and wind gusts to around 30. 

 

Just left there a few hours ago to head home. Wind and then the heavy rain between Longview Federal Way.  It was a fun drive.  Also a couple trees down along the freeway.  Glad I’m outa that mess!!!

 

[wxmet]

Best forcing below the DGZ suggesting low snow to liquid ratios and heavy wet snow at KSEA taken verbatim

[The Swamp]

Monday could be the warning shot to the warning shot before the mother load in February.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Best forcing below the DGZ suggesting low snow to liquid ratios and heavy wet snow at KSEA taken verbatim

Pretty much no warm nose(or finger, tongue) at 950mb, and previous soundings didn't indicate much, but it was there. Minimal at best now.

[kokaneekidz]

6 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Best forcing below the DGZ suggesting low snow to liquid ratios and heavy wet snow at KSEA taken verbatim

Sounds like lots of transformers lighting up the nighttime sky unfortunately

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Actually has a marginal southward digging trough over western Washington. Rising heights at ~150W too. Hmmm....

 

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's a pretty brief blip in the overall pattern. Ridging returns immediately to the West Coast.

Now if we were seeing sustained -PNA, that would be another story.

This “blip” (ie: the shortwave trough) isn’t happening by chance. There’s a reason it’s there.

And it hasn’t been very ridgy out there other than the 1st week of the month. Zonal yes, but not ridgy. 

[Esquimalt]

HRDPS looks really good both for me and the Seattle folks.  Can anyone share good quality maps?

[FroYoBro]

The 0Z is chilly!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5+ Gorge, Columbia Basin several notches colder, persistent temps near/below freezing. Interesting.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

This “blip” (ie: the shortwave trough) isn’t happening by chance. There’s a reason it’s there.

And it hasn’t been very ridgy out there other than the 1st week of the month. Zonal yes, but not ridgy. 

Either way, +PNA has been dominant and one skinny, transitory ridge isn't flipping the pattern.

However, it does appear things might be starting to move in the right direction.

You can claim "delayed but not denied" if it gets cold in early January. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z GEM is south of the 12z with the low. The different in track is becoming quite narrow across the models now:

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[bainbridgekid]

33 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

Currently in Medford Oregon at the hotel....on my way to Phoenix for Xmas vacation. It's 50 degrees and overcast. Can't wait to get down to Burbank, CA and meet up with friends and have some beers. Phoenix real estate market is booming. Owning a home in Western Washington and Phoenix is the way to go! Air BnB the AZ home during summer  and use it for vacations in the winter. 

Who visits Phoenix in the Summer?

[Kayla]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Who visits Phoenix in the Summer?

Tim.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Who visits Phoenix in the Summer?

Wonder whatever happened to Farmboy?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Should put a solid dent in our rainfall deficit.

[bainbridgekid]

WRF still looking good, especially North of Seattle and East of 405. Looks like it's liking about a 300 foot snow level.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

In a much better mood tonight after hitting all 3 bets

I’d set the O/U for snow inches in Seattle at 1” with -115 odds. Models later could up that to 1.5”

[SouthHillFrosty]

18 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Who visits Phoenix in the Summer?

I did and it was 115 degrees

[SouthHillFrosty]

Standing water on 512. Cars turning into hydro planes 

[seattleweatherguy]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

WRF still looking good, especially North of Seattle and East of 405. Looks like it's liking about a 300 foot snow level.

 

300 foot snow level perfect for me as im higher than that