SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: Hearing about you getting lowland snow is like hearing about Jeff Bezos getting a pay raise. Well he's gotta make back all that money his wife took from him. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian guy Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: In late January 2019 plenty of Seattle-area posters were in full-blown winter cancel mode…. This is very true. Things did not look good leading up to February 2019 and then things suddenly changed. It does not look promising at the moment but hopefully the SSW around New Years will shake up the pattern for the better (as long as the SSW does occur). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Canadian guy said: This is very true. Things did not look good leading up to February 2019 and then things suddenly changed. It does not look promising at the moment but hopefully the SSW around New Years will shake up the pattern for the better (as long as the SSW does occur). If it happens I will take everyone out for roast beef sandwiches and curly fries at Abby's. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian guy Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Chilly out there today. Currently sitting just below freezing. The 2 inches we got is frozen solid. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Canadian guy said: Chilly out there today. Currently sitting just below freezing. The 2 inches we got is frozen solid. Wish we could have dipped below freezing. We hit 32.4 during the snowfall but it’s been all uphill since. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 41 minutes ago, Jesse said: It certainly wasn't a warm run Andfew. Euro looks chilly days 6-7. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Well he's gotta make back all that money his wife took from him. We can always count on you to defend billionaires. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian guy Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Wish we could have dipped below freezing. We hit 32.4 during the snowfall but it’s been all uphill since. My location warmed up to 35 after the front passed but other parts of Victoria climbed to 40. Was surprised to wake up to a temp of 28 this morning with hardly any melting other than on the cement and trees. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: In late January 2019 plenty of Seattle-area posters were in full-blown winter cancel mode…. Everything is moved up a month this time. Good sign! 2 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Everything is moved up a month this time. Good sign! When we lose the Justin/Jesse entirely, the table is set. Not sure if we’re there yet. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Another 2019 memory is how, when model runs started getting “interesting,” the Euro kept calling for the central Puget Sound area to get cumulative snowfalls of around 2 feet. Everyone thought it was on drugs. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Euro looks way better with macroscale features than GFS by day 7. Didn't someone mention something about models still not sampling as much data due to the pandemic? 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 43 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Can't say I'm feeling too good about it. There continues to be a lack of anything remotely impressive across the northern hemisphere. Even Alaska looks mild for the foreseeable future, unlike last year which at least delivered up there in spite of its ineptitude. I’d say odds are several orders of magnitude higher this year than last year. The pattern looks messy on guidance, but much of that is a reflection of the regime shift to high latitude blocking perturbing the wave pool. First 7-10 days of January are unlikely to perform, but mid-January onwards gets interesting in a hurry if tropical analogs and history have anything to say about it. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: Didn't someone mention something about models still not sampling as much data due to the pandemic? A number of us have. A lot of the initializing data comes from commercial aircraft. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Positive PNA for awhile. This would be determinate for snow here in the PNW. If Seattle does not get anymore snow this year, Seattle would have 12/16 of the last years with four inches or less. 8/16 would have one inch or less. Not a good trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: When we lose the Justin/Jesse entirely, the table is set. Not sure if we’re there yet. I won't give up on this winter until MLK 2022. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ShawniganLake Posted December 22, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 hours ago, jakerepp said: I think we need pics from the lottery winner! I only took 1 around 10am yesterday when I was leaving for work. About 3-4” around that time. 11 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Here comes the sun... Good song, Beatles 1969. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Only on this forum would winter be cancelled 12hrs after a dynamic front with an anafrontal snow thump. 1 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Phil said: I’d say odds are several orders of magnitude higher this year than last year. The pattern looks messy on guidance, but much of that is a reflection of the regime shift to high latitude blocking perturbing the wave pool. First 7-10 days of January are unlikely to perform, but mid-January onwards gets interesting in a hurry if tropical analogs and history have anything to say about it. Not sure what analogs are still relevant. 1988 is still our best hope, I suppose. Gonna have to watch Die Hard tonight to realize that dream. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Phil said: Only on this forum would winter be cancelled 12hrs after a dynamic front with an anafrontal snow thump. Mood's change quicker than the weather. That is a lot considering that we had a record high yesterday and snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 26 minutes ago, Jesse said: If it happens I will take everyone out for roast beef sandwiches and curly fries at Abby's. Abby's pizza is amazing. Love their pretzel-ish crust and their potato wedges. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Only on this forum would winter be cancelled 12hrs after a dynamic front with an anafrontal snow thump. A few more tigers seem to be roaming the woods this morning. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Euro looks way better with macroscale features than GFS by day 7. Didn't someone mention something about models still not sampling as much data due to the pandemic? Also radically different than GFS days 8-10. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Abby's pizza is amazing. Love their pretzel-ish crust and their potato wedges. I had never had it until a couple years ago when we were in Bend. Pretty D**n good. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Nice chilly period leading up to New Years on the 12Z Euro. Also a good run for snow in the central and eastern Gorge. We will be out there for New Years eve and day, so hoping for snow on the ground. All in all a much better run than the 12Z GFS. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Abby's pizza is amazing. Love their pretzel-ish crust and their potato wedges. You haven't lived until you've tried their horsey sauce and jamocha shakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 12Z ECMWF shows some potential on New Years Eve... 2 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: You haven't lived until you've tried their horney sauce and jamocha shakes. Bolded is how I read this at first... 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Not sure what analogs are still relevant. 1988 is still our best hope, I suppose. Gonna have to watch Die Hard tonight to realize that dream. Well, 1988/89 and 2017/18 were/are the closest SSTA/warm pool matches, and have been for months. Looking farther back, 1942/43 (reconstructed) is relatively close as well. Also, there’s some lower frequency homogeneities between 2020 and 1995/96 & 2010/11. While they were different in terms of the timing and amplitude of their respective intraseasonal cycles, especially in November, the low pass signals are increasingly adjacent. The vast majority of analogs I’ve looked at featured significant western cold/snow at some point. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF shows some potential on New Years Eve... What's this? Some kind of overrunning event? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Bolded is how I read this at first... Sounds like someone's ready to start sleeping inside again! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Can’t get much more discombobulated than hour 240 on the Euro. Have to think the new virus variant is giving that particular model some fits. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Phil said: Well, 1988/89 and 2017/18 were/are the closest SSTA/warm pool matches, and have been for months. Looking farther back, 1942/43 (reconstructed) is relatively close as well. Also, there’s some lower frequency homogeneities between 2020 and 1995/96 & 2010/11. While they were different in terms of the timing and amplitude of their respective intraseasonal cycles, especially in November, the low pass signals are increasingly adjacent. The vast majority of analogs I’ve looked at featured significant western cold/snow at some point. Move the troughing in late February 2018 a few weeks earlier and it could have been very impressive. Was still a pretty solid stretch up here. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: Sounds like someone's ready to start sleeping inside again! Maybe if it ever gets cold I will be forced to. Lows 10 degrees warmer than our average high are not going to do the trick! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 I heard the cherry blossoms are nice in January. 1 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Move the troughing in late February 2018 a few weeks earlier and it could have been very impressive. Was still a pretty solid stretch up here. Yes, and 2017/18 had the SSW in February as well. This year it will probably occur during the 1st half of January..pretty much the ideal time to have it with respect to the seasonal cycle. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, Phil said: Only on this forum would winter be cancelled 12hrs after a dynamic front with an anafrontal snow thump. I like Anna, and I hope she and her front come back sometime soon. 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I heard the cherry blossoms are nice in January. My daffodils will be blooming in a few hours. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 22, 2020 Report Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Can’t get much more discombobulated than hour 240 on the Euro. Have to think the new virus variant is giving that particular model some fits. Justin's comment got it fired up. Crazy blocking developing. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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