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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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Just now, Jesse said:

Hearing about you getting lowland snow is like hearing about Jeff Bezos getting a pay raise.

Well he's gotta make back all that money his wife took from him. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In late January 2019 plenty of Seattle-area posters were in full-blown winter cancel mode….

This is very true. Things did not look good leading up to February 2019 and then things suddenly changed. It does not look promising at the moment but hopefully the SSW around New Years will shake up the pattern for the better (as long as the SSW does occur).

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Just now, Canadian guy said:

This is very true. Things did not look good leading up to February 2019 and then things suddenly changed. It does not look promising at the moment but hopefully the SSW around New Years will shake up the pattern for the better (as long as the SSW does occur).

If it happens I will take everyone out for roast beef sandwiches and curly fries at Abby's.

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1 minute ago, Canadian guy said:

Chilly out there today. Currently sitting just below freezing. The 2 inches we got is frozen solid. 

Wish we could have dipped below freezing. We hit 32.4 during the snowfall but it’s been all uphill since. 😞

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wish we could have dipped below freezing. We hit 32.4 during the snowfall but it’s been all uphill since. 😞

My location warmed up to 35 after the front passed but other parts of Victoria climbed to 40. Was surprised to wake up to a temp of 28 this morning  with hardly any melting other than on the cement and trees.

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43 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Can't say I'm feeling too good about it. There continues to be a lack of anything remotely impressive across the northern hemisphere. Even Alaska looks mild for the foreseeable future, unlike last year which at least delivered up there in spite of its ineptitude. 

I’d say odds are several orders of magnitude higher this year than last year. The pattern looks messy on guidance, but much of that is a reflection of the regime shift to high latitude blocking perturbing the wave pool.

First 7-10 days of January are unlikely to perform, but mid-January onwards gets interesting in a hurry if tropical analogs and history have anything to say about it.

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Positive PNA for awhile. This would be determinate for snow here in the PNW. If Seattle does not get anymore snow this year, Seattle would have 12/16 of the last years with four inches or less. 8/16 would have one inch or less. Not a good trend

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Only on this forum would winter be cancelled 12hrs after a dynamic front with an anafrontal snow thump. 😂

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d say odds are several orders of magnitude higher this year than last year. The pattern looks messy on guidance, but much of that is a reflection of the regime shift to high latitude blocking perturbing the wave pool.

First 7-10 days of January are unlikely to perform, but mid-January onwards gets interesting in a hurry if tropical analogs and history have anything to say about it.

Not sure what analogs are still relevant. 1988 is still our best hope, I suppose. Gonna have to watch Die Hard tonight to realize that dream.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Only on this forum would winter be cancelled 12hrs after a dynamic front with an anafrontal snow thump. 😂

Mood's change quicker than the weather😂. That is a lot considering that we had a record high yesterday and snow😂

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26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

If it happens I will take everyone out for roast beef sandwiches and curly fries at Abby's.

Abby's pizza is amazing. Love their pretzel-ish crust and their potato wedges.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Nice chilly period leading up to New Years on the 12Z Euro. Also a good run for snow in the central and eastern Gorge. We will be out there for New Years eve and day, so hoping for snow on the ground.

All in all a much better run than the 12Z GFS.

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Just now, Jesse said:

You haven't lived until you've tried their horney sauce and jamocha shakes.

Bolded is how I read this at first...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Not sure what analogs are still relevant. 1988 is still our best hope, I suppose. Gonna have to watch Die Hard tonight to realize that dream.

Well, 1988/89 and 2017/18 were/are the closest SSTA/warm pool matches, and have been for months. Looking farther back, 1942/43 (reconstructed) is relatively close as well.

Also, there’s some lower frequency homogeneities between 2020 and 1995/96 & 2010/11. While they were different in terms of the timing and amplitude of their respective intraseasonal cycles, especially in November, the low pass signals are increasingly adjacent.

The vast majority of analogs I’ve looked at featured significant western cold/snow at some point.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows some potential on New Years Eve...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_12hr-9437600.png

What's this? Some kind of overrunning event?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Phil said:

Well, 1988/89 and 2017/18 were/are the closest SSTA/warm pool matches, and have been for months. Looking farther back, 1942/43 (reconstructed) is relatively close as well.

Also, there’s some lower frequency homogeneities between 2020 and 1995/96 & 2010/11. While they were different in terms of the timing and amplitude of their respective intraseasonal cycles, especially in November, the low pass signals are increasingly adjacent.

The vast majority of analogs I’ve looked at featured significant western cold/snow at some point.

Move the troughing in late February 2018 a few weeks earlier and it could have been very impressive. Was still a pretty solid stretch up here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

Sounds like someone's ready to start sleeping inside again!

Maybe if it ever gets cold I will be forced to. Lows 10 degrees warmer than our average high are not going to do the trick!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Move the troughing in late February 2018 a few weeks earlier and it could have been very impressive. Was still a pretty solid stretch up here. 

Yes, and 2017/18 had the SSW in February as well. This year it will probably occur during the 1st half of January..pretty much the ideal time to have it with respect to the seasonal cycle.

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I heard the cherry blossoms are nice in January.

My daffodils will be blooming in a few hours.  

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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