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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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Down to 23 at HIO. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 hours ago, iFred said:

Well it seems I've pissed the lot of you off with doubting this, but we've or at least I've heard the same song and dance over and over. Unless there is obvious bits that support cold making it and sticking around to this side of the coast then I just don't see a reason to get excited over what will be great pictures from Andrew and Tim. Anyway, its probably time to hand the forum over to someone else.

Phil, check your DMs for the admin password and the ssh keys needed. The forum is on top of a compute instance with performant blockstorage attached and will cost anywhere from 20 to 40 a month depending on bandwidth. Given the direction of our winters, you probably could host the site on a tamagotchi in a couple years.

Hey!! What about my pics!! Like my profile pic from January 2020! Or a pic from February 2019! Or a pic from February 2018! C’MON...Everyone has to be sick of my pics by now!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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20 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Steens Mountain is such a magical place. Burns does have some nice neighborhoods. I really appreciate some of those desolate Eastern Oregon towns. Lakeview, Dayville, John Day, Prairie City. We can see the milky way out here.

I used to take 20-30 of my students each summer to Malheur to do some birding and then hike up in the Steens.  Amazing country.  The drive through the high desert through Brothers, Hampton, Millican, and Riley was special.  Beauty is in the eye of the beholder in that stark environment.  We'd find an old dirt road, pull over after a long day fossil hunting at the Painted Hills or the town of Fossil.  we'd just throw out our sleeping bags in the sage brush and listen to the coyotes all night long.  For the city kids it was a rich experience.  No rattlers but lots of black widows!   We'd always flush a few burrowing owls there which was a highlight.  One year on August 12th we got caught in a great snowstorm at Lily Lake at 7k on the Steens.  Never a bad time to sing Christmas carols as that's what we did.  I think we pegged 124 species of birds on that trip. 

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44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No frost on the trees this morning with the wind and dry air... and the snow has been blown off the trees on the ridge.   But the snow in the yard is hard and crunchy and not melting despite a temp of 40.  

20201224_075032.jpg

Still holding onto mine in areas.....I might carry some over into Christmas :)

3CDBB0C8-1305-4D79-8A1D-FE481140F39F.jpeg

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44 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Speaking of the Pacific not shutting down.  Does anyone have a SST map?  How is our friend, the Blob, doing?

Pretty apparent that the "blob"  which is much weaker than the blob of a few years ago, did not hurt Puget Sound's snow the other day.  A pretty amazing drop of temperature in a short time.  So I think this year's blob is much ado about nothing.

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6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Pretty apparent that the "blob"  which is much weaker than the blob of a few years ago, did not hurt Puget Sound's snow the other day.  A pretty amazing drop of temperature in a short time.  So I think this year's blob is much ado about nothing.

It always is.

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7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

February 19. Take that MossMan. 

20190211_182823.jpg

20190211_182827.jpg

20190211_203616.jpg

20190211_234522.jpg

This was on the night on 2/11/19... and there was another 18 inches that fell after I took this pic.   The snow went through about noon the next day.

 

20190211-211503.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This was on the night on 2/11/19... and there was another 18 inches that fell after I took this pic.   The snow went through about noon the next day.

 

20190211-211503.jpg

I obviously remember all that happened in my neck of the woods in 2019, but I forgot how buried you were up there. 

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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22 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The 12z looks active and I'm happy to see that! Going to be at cabin from 26th to 3rd. Should be snowing a bit.

We are staying a few nights in a cabin in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon (outside of Baker City) next week, then will be spending New Years in Dufur. Should be snowy and wintry for all locations.

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gfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Dropped to 27 last night with very heavy frost this morning.  Not a bad little cold snap.

The long range models look very hopeful for January.  No doubt a -PNA has to come eventually.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Dropped to 27 last night with very heavy frost this morning.  Not a bad little cold snap.

The long range models look very hopeful for January.  No doubt a -PNA has to come eventually.

Merry Christmas. I think the models will be rounding into form over the next few days. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The MJO forecasts (particularly the ECMWF) indicate an MJO wave will be emerging in either 2 or 3 in early January.  That should help our cause.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Merry Christmas. I think the models will be rounding into form over the next few days. 

Merry Christmas! I think you're right.  Quite often the EPS control is the first to pick up on big changes in the 10 to 15 day period and it has looked good the last couple of runs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Dropped to 27 last night with very heavy frost this morning.  Not a bad little cold snap.

The long range models look very hopeful for January.  No doubt a -PNA has to come eventually.

Dropped to 27 here as well. The east wind has picked up a little now but the air is dry, so its still frosty in the shade even though its up to 36.

Looks like PDX fell to 29 which is better than I thought they'd do.

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12Z ECMWF shows a decent amount of precip rotating north tomorrow up here... and it also shows the east wind staying in place through the entire day.     I am thinking this might be 1-2 inches of snow in my area.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_6hr_inch-8948000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-8940800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-snow_12hr-8962400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Salem made it down to 26 this morning. Hillsboro made it down to an impressive 22!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Phil any thoughts on 21-22 ENSO? Early indications seem to be negative neutral to weak Nina from what I can tell. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows a decent amount of precip rotating north tomorrow up here... and it also shows the east wind staying in place through the entire day.     I am thinking this might be 1-2 inches of snow in my area.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_6hr_inch-8948000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-8940800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-snow_12hr-8962400.png

I was thinking the same thing.

Feels like the type of pattern the cold dry air gets locked in for you long enough to get some accumulations while the East wind persists. 850mb temps will be above freezing up through the Sound though, so that warm nose could easily screw you since it isn't effected by lower level offshore flow.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I was thinking the same thing.

Feels like the type of pattern the cold dry air gets locked in for you long enough to get some accumulations while the East wind persists. 850mb temps will be above freezing up through the Sound though, so that warm nose could easily screw you since it isn't effected by lower level offshore flow.

I think the east wind will do its thing tomorrow and give us some Christmas Day snow... but then by Saturday morning the ECMWF shows a strong south wind across most of King County so that will be rain even here.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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