snow_wizard Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 The EPS continues to trend colder in the believable range. Quite low heights being progged. We might b able to squeeze some lowland snow out of that. The prospects after that get quite complicated due to the SSW and an emerging MJO wave both happening. Big time players being put on the board soon. There is no question the tropics are in full Nina mode with the 30 day SOI way over +10. Hard to imagine us not scoring a decent cold wave sometime this winter. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 42 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: If the system on the 21st had tracked about 100 miles further south, Seattle would have gotten more than just a few flurries. As it was my girlfriend's house in North Seattle got almost 2". Still had about an inch in her yard on Christmas morning. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, MossMan said: I always go back to the system that went further south than modeled and came ashore right at the mouth of the Columbia back in November of 1996...It was supposed to be a quick slushy half inch of overrunning snow before transitioning to rain...Well that transition never happened and instead we had north winds screaming down past Seattle and I got several inches of lovely snow. I remember that event pretty well. Tons of rain down here, transitioned to snow at the end, but didn’t amount to much at our house. The hills around Silverton did get a few inches and I think PDX did too. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 25 minutes ago, MossMan said: I always go back to the system that went further south than modeled and came ashore right at the mouth of the Columbia back in November of 1996...It was supposed to be a quick slushy half inch of overrunning snow before transitioning to rain...Well that transition never happened and instead we had north winds screaming down past Seattle and I got several inches of lovely snow. Nov 1996 was a good one. I remember there was snow on the ground in Whatcom County before it came down here. they had a bunch up there. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 57 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Of course, but this time of year we don't need much more than a low to the south and offshore flow. We don't need 9 degrees, just 32-30 works! C'MON!!!! We had 9” of 33 degree snow. It can happen. Would have been a pretty epic storm had it been 30F 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I remember that event pretty well. Tons of rain down here, transitioned to snow at the end, but didn’t amount to much at our house. The hills around Silverton did get a few inches and I think PDX did too. Probably didn’t amount to much because the ground was too warm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Nov 1996 was a good one. I remember there was snow on the ground in Whatcom County before it came down here. they had a bunch up there. Wasn't that more Dec 1996? 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: My money is on about 7-10 days of west coast ridging and then another jet extension. I suspect we lose the Urals ridging/+EAMT upon the completion of the SSW. So a subsequent jet retraction, and tendency toward polar (and/or NPAC) blocking seems more likely to me than another jet extension. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Wasn't that more Dec 1996? Whatcom County and LMBC did quite well with the Fraser River arctic front on 11/16/1996. Clearbrook and YXX both had 16" with that storm. That was a really epic winter there. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 4 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Judah Cohen: Judah Cohen @judah47 1/ I published this table in my blog December 7 but it may be Twitter friendly. It presents my expectations during different active energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere as we are observing currently. The row highlighted in yellow is currently most appropriate. 2/ Quote from blog: "I expect the mild pattern for the Eastern US & Europe to continue for at least two weeks & likely longer. In the interim the regions most likely to experience cold air outbreaks are East Asia & likely including western N America. Lol u ninja’d me on this. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Not too often you see 49 degree outflow winds at Troutdale on December 27th. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Whatcom County and LMBC did quite well with the Fraser River arctic front on 11/16/1996. Clearbrook and YXX both had 16" with that storm. That was a really epic winter there. Chilliwack to Agassiz had some ridiculous totals with that initial push of arctic air. 20-30” totals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: When do you anticipate the models will start seeing what happens "after the jet extension", and what would that look like? This +EAMT/NPAC jet cycle peaks during the first week of January. Afterwards it depends where the daughter vortices end up, the extent to which MJO component is triggered, and also how long the entire process takes since seasonality/wave pool climo matters a lot. But I stand by my initial take, that the second half of January holds the highest potential for significant cold pool intrusion into NW North America. And this is a situation that might not be “seen” by models outside 7-8 days, when we get to that point, assuming that potential is tapped (there’s certainly a lot of it!) 2 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Phil said: I suspect we lose the Urals ridging/+EAMT upon the completion of the SSW. So a subsequent jet retraction, and tendency toward polar (and/or NPAC) blocking seems more likely to me than another jet extension. You can always count on losing those urinals to get us in the Arctic air! 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Chilliwack to Agassiz had some ridiculous totals with that initial push of arctic air. 20-30” totals. 1996 was an amazing year there. 131" of snow at Chilliwack that calendar year. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 The GFS is more belated with timing versus ECMWF, but still an extremely anomalous event, verbatim. U-wind @ 65N/10mb more than 2 standard deviations from climo. Image from Hannah Attard’s site: 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 This guy would be fun. 5 1 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Yeah, Nor'easter style storm there. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 48 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Wasn't that more Dec 1996? No. Just north of Bellingham had something like 16 inches total in November 1996. I remember driving up there to check it out before the snow came down this way. I do remember there being an incredible difference between Bellingham and Lynden that time. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: This guy would be fun. That period has some potential. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, Phil said: The GFS is more belated with timing versus ECMWF, but still an extremely anomalous event, verbatim. U-wind @ 65N/10mb more than 2 standard deviations from climo. Image from Hannah Attard’s site: Looks like it has potential to shake things up. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Definitely lowland snow on this run. Things are starting to look interesting. 2 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 I’ll keep my snowblower out 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: Whatcom County and LMBC did quite well with the Fraser River arctic front on 11/16/1996. Clearbrook and YXX both had 16" with that storm. That was a really epic winter there. Yeah, guess it was similar in both November and December. I remember Whatcom County got hit well before everyone else that December. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 That 18z GFS is actually somewhat more “blah” in the stratosphere. Still a legit SSW, no question, but opens the door for a quicker reformation of the vortex with the wave axes. The GFS/GEFS is handling this very differently from the ECMWF/EPS and CMC ensembles. Though obviously, I’d rather have the Euro on our side than the GFS. 1 1 1 1 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Yeah, guess it was similar in both November and December. I remember Whatcom County got hit well before everyone else that December. We had 16” before Christmas in 1996. Then it turned to drizzle for a day before the cold came back on Christmas Day 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Definitely lowland snow on this run. Things are starting to look interesting. We are peeking into mid January now and it looks like medical waste at this point. It's hard to get excited about "potential" based on a "likely" SSW that Phil now has looking a bit less robust. The model runs so far this winter are as bad as I've seen. Partly due to their improved accuracy I'm sure but they have been uninspiring. Your upbeat attitude is at times inspiring but this particular run is total crap Jim. 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 New GFS trying to go somewhere at the end. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 The 18Z was a gorgeous run with a barrage of strong storms in the 120-170 hour range which is great. Other models show the chance for some breezy conditions in that timeframe so we'll see what happens. Nice to see La Nina in effect finally. 3 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: New GFS trying to go somewhere at the end. This might get my neighbor Acer a little more optimistic! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, MossMan said: This might get my neighbor Acer a little more optimistic! The Pivotal view looks a bit different than what I was looking at but it’s still 15 days out and it doesn’t really look that promising. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 I just got home and nice run! Looks like the GFS Op is heavily trending towards the EURO. Here we go! 00z ECMWF in 5 hours 40 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: I just got home and nice run! Looks like the GFS Op is heavily trending towards the EURO. Here we go! 00z ECMWF in 5 hours 40 minutes Windy run with those lows spinning up offshore. 1 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, Acer said: The Pivotal view looks a bit different than what I was looking at but it’s still 15 days out and it doesn’t really look that promising. I was referring to the new GFS V16, not the old one. Tropical Tidbits does not have it. Models: GFSv16 — Pivotal Weather Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: I was referring to the new GFS V16, not the old one. Tropical Tidbits does not have it. Models: GFSv16 — Pivotal Weather Oh yeah, I didn’t notice that! Thanks. That version does look better. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Acer is back onboard!!! 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I just got home and nice run! Looks like the GFS Op is heavily trending towards the EURO. Here we go! 00z ECMWF in 5 hours 40 minutes You, Requiem and Snowiz like this run. Why? I must be missing something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 This is looking much better to me. I could see some lowland snow coming up even with out an arctic blast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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