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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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The extended GFS ensemble continues to show PNA going minus in mid January.  Later in the month the EPO drops sharply along with that.  I really hope we can get something good going in the last half of January.  That is historically the best time to get hit around here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Day 1 Wind Event/Storms(s)? AR/Flooding? Jet suppressed/offshore flow for low snow levels? No idea. Stay tuned!

500h_anom.na.png

I'm hoping this run continues to show the GOA ridging late in the run like the past few runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

So this SSW that’s been talked about for weeks still hasn’t even started? Yawn. 
 

And lol at that anticyclone over Greenland. It’s only gotten stronger. Is it Summer yet? 

I think the high pressure over Greenland is part of the plan according to this.  It’s part of “The Great Disturbance!” . 

BF1644A7-B1F1-4056-8995-694E62D95230.png

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6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

So this SSW that’s been talked about for weeks still hasn’t even started? Yawn. 
 

And lol at that anticyclone over Greenland. It’s only gotten stronger. Is it Summer yet? 

There's the spirit! @iFred would be so proud.

In all seriousness though, I'm not sure if there is any connection between increased heights over Greenland and warmer weather over our area, save maybe for a muddied downstream relation from poorer patterns over our way. If anything, it is a small cog in the atmospheric machine that is helping to erode away at the SPV, which in turn could provide us with some wintry weather down the line.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

There's the spirit! @iFred would be so proud.

In all seriousness though, I'm not sure if there is any connection between increased heights over Greenland and warmer weather over our area, save maybe for a muddied downstream relation from poorer patterns over our way. If anything, it is a small cog in the atmospheric machine that is helping to erode away at the SPV, which in turn could provide us with some wintry weather down the line.

Maybe the Greenland high is interfering with the SE ridge that we would need to lock in a pattern of greatness though?

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Already down to freezing. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

Maybe the Greenland high is interfering with the SE ridge that we would need to lock in a pattern of greatness though?

Isn't the SE ridge just a feature?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Please post the model showing it’s underway when it has started please Rob. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2020122800&fh=6

You can view the GFS at this link, in the bars above the map you can also see GEFS/GEPS guidance for the Stratosphere as well. 

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Maybe the Greenland high is interfering with the SE ridge that we would need to lock in a pattern of greatness though?

Again, same issue with that argument, given that it is entirely a downstream effect. There, again, may be a loose correlation between our warmer patterns and a lack of a SE ridge, but in no meaningful way does a SE ridge help give is wintry weather. That is up to whatever is going on upstream over the Pacific and high latitude western North America.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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