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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I've been thinking about that hurting us, but as Phil has pointed out January 1969 was one of the all time great -NAO events (Greenland high), and that was epic here.

Yup. Here’s January 1969. The current pattern will probably evolve into something similar-ish to this once the jet retracts next month.

image.png.78bacc31e30d8d41073ad78bcd6d5506.png

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I really like the end of the GFS.  Deep low off the Coast of Asia and a big ridge being dredged up over the Central Pacific / GOA.  Now it just has to happen.

Yeah that GFS run was going places at the end.

Now we just need to get it out of the clown range.

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2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEFS Day 10-16. Jet seems to be retracting as upper low retrogrades back into interior Siberia. Thoughts?

floop-gefs-2020122800.200wh.npac.gif

floop-gefs-2020122800.500h_anom.npac(1).gif

Yeah it’ll be retracting by then, but the GEFS mean is wrong with the downstream response over the west coast.

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1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said:

Yes but even cursory glances at the GFS vs Euro show us that we're not really sure where or how the bifurcation plays out, let alone the long term effects.

I was mostly responding about people on this forum that you were responding to that were asking "WHERE IS THE SSW BRAH" when looking at the models show we are still in a high state of uncertainty about the timing and downstream consequences.

Yeah the Euro and GooFuS are in entirely different planets with the wave-1 evolution.

Obviously the Euro solution is preferable. 😉

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Here’s what that mini -PDO episode (2008-12) looked like at 500mb.

Notice background state is -PNA/-NAO.

image.png.9a2e3dc1f0503e9f5539349b53ec5fab.png

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Now let’s look at the 2013-17 “warm phase” compared to the 2008-12 “cold phase”.

Much more +NAO/+PNA.

image.png.4d91d6f08263ea27226f52fd5a870d8a.png

 

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06z GFS Init.

1527967021_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T014353_165.thumb.png.4e4cb7504cabc4abed8e32677d7f7b7f.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 1

466143931_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T014436_396.thumb.png.f57ff2d069aea70877df09c607123a20.png

(Past 4 runs)

trend-gfs-2020122806-f024.500h_anom_npac.gif.0bd0aeab8c8ab720ec4076b93ba151e1.gif

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

The big cold is still going to Putin for now, though.

image.thumb.png.7d374cec54eb615c056fec0217dd431a.png

Seems like it has to be pretty unusual to have 850's barely below freezing throughout the NW Territories in late December. Especially without any real major blocking going on.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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06z GFS Day 2

91779127_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T014510_881.thumb.png.e9d850b1cf6e7846dc789dda35b4b6c6.png

(Past 4 runs)

trend-gfs-2020122806-f048.500h_anom_npac.gif.22ce5c9f20257a700f9761cc17aea904.gif

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 3

2135728443_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T014922_342.thumb.png.370e48dc84cf6650fa2860596c77082b.png

(Past 4 runs)

trend-gfs-2020122806-f072.500h_anom_npac.gif.21e84c4c7cc7044da88e001574c06bce.gif

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 4

501636554_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T020401_732.thumb.png.a28bcc70457aeb195d851095214a58de.png

(Past 4 runs)

trend-gfs-2020122806-f096.500h_anom_npac.gif.be13bd86c3fe9c42f574a8c24f90a2fb.gif

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 5

1391508064_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T020439_485.thumb.png.413b3fb743b00d9ec8b72cf952bb020b.png

(Past 4 runs)

trend-gfs-2020122806-f120.500h_anom_npac.gif.7b2202e32de9fdcc97b92defa89bb758.gif

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Playing catch up so next few comments may be lagging behind in reference to the models. 0z GFS seemed to be a great run imo, especially towards the end of the OP run. GOA ridge trying to build with a solid Greenland block in place. It seemed like it wants to push the cold air down and it looks solidly chilly across the northern half of the US coast to coast. 

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06z GFS Day 6

951644927_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T021004_389.thumb.png.2a9e7c8eaa98d46d4b26427173f27bfd.png

(Past 4 runs)

trend-gfs-2020122806-f144.500h_anom_npac.gif.beb4a548f9105e0269e77d7e04b3d79b.gif

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 7

363705938_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T021538_366.thumb.png.51bf52a54b96d22ecb71c42f45d5c69e.png

(Past 4 runs)

trend-gfs-2020122806-f168.500h_anom_npac.gif.a3ade483dc253d3f05dad7a29687b590.gif

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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This is an active period that is about to come up. Potential for windstorms, postfrontal convection, gobs of mountain snow, and even another anafront type event like what we saw on the solstice.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 8

191068435_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T022153_178.thumb.png.b21afd4b3c7837533878102e5f565765.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 9

Welcome to La Niña!

1081038490_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T022825_226.thumb.png.570c0e956f1f1eb6068a211b0c2ae6a4.png

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I like seeing dat jet suppression. Get a low to stall off the southern OR coast then come in around Cape Blanco or a little south.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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06z GFS Day 10

38416537_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T023436_189.thumb.png.8a6637164de95cf83794a10a0116ea3e.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS 10 Day Precip/Snowfall

Wet and chilly run. Marginal snowfall opportunities abundant. La Niña!

122950495_qpf_acc.us_nw(15).thumb.png.fd34a88355622c826afa7eff0664cd33.png

1627061061_sn10_acc.us_nw(17).thumb.png.5bf6220464f6cc77aed0474665a293aa.png

  • Snow 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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😀

1609945200-mYv2A8tqu5A.png

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1610128800-gqoBabxF7zA.png

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  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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06z GFS Day 11

1169383538_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T024004_929.thumb.png.37eb52c25aa6efdd676a9d637685fdc5.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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gfs_Tz10_nhem_13.thumb.png.ac9b02d7713c1726356212e5a6171940.png

06z is a bit more rough on the SPV. Doesn't split it, but it's not handled with care by any means.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 12

1324044212_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T024801_740.thumb.png.3447105c3bf52e4b3d077c4ea56cb410.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 13

Much more blocky compared to previous runs at this range.

764333010_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T025156_834.thumb.png.9e7b1d9c14813b1a2ba185f577d2bcdc.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 14

2138328459_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T025900_371.thumb.png.ed588163038b73ba6b36def19f6a9b03.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 15

Man, that is a lot of cold air waiting to be knocked south from BC.

541447608_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T030407_792.thumb.png.efe9fb1a862a954b67e3fc23bf39c95f.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS Day 16

1181799993_500h_anom.npac-2020-12-28T031019_798.thumb.png.3f5a204e32cd8e999fcf2f4d58778e0e.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Frosty and 32 degrees this morning.

Yesterday was mostly sunny and 49/39, with an east wind picking up in the late afternoon and evening. Must have decoupled quickly overnight because it was blowing strong around bedtime.

I was worried the wind would keep the temp up last night but it died down.  Was enough to keep all the fog away though.  26 right now.

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Frosty and 32 degrees this morning.

Yesterday was mostly sunny and 49/39, with an east wind picking up in the late afternoon and evening. Must have decoupled quickly overnight because it was blowing strong around bedtime.

5 degrees warmer over here at 37. 

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29

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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