December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Call me a skeptic. but I have a real hard time imagining one of the great patterns of the 20th Century is going to inexplicably emerge from this shitscape. 

The 12z’s 384 hour frame is pretty bizarre.  Looks like an MC Escher painting made of above normal 500mb heights.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Still sitting at 25.9 at home.  Truck says 28 where I'm at.  It is fake cold though :).  And, yes, I am rolling my eyes about the "Zoom" calls.  Two dixie cups and a long string is where it's at.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Still sitting at 25.9 at home.  Truck says 28 where I'm at.  It is fake cold though :).  And, yes, I am rolling my eyes about the "Zoom" calls.  Two dixie cups and a long string is where it's at.

No, two turntables and a microphone is where it’s at, you goofus.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

No, two turntables and a microphone is where it’s at, you goofus.

That reminds me of an old co-worker of mine.  I believe he played that single back to back to back for hours.  To this day I cannot stomach that song anymore.

[MossMan]

Andrews’s weenieism has continued to effect the PNA forecast. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

@Phil was right, vodka cold starts first on Putin's side.  Hopefully Phil will continue to be right.

 

Sayaka Mori

@sayakasofiamori

Siberia's #Oymyakon had -57.2C (-71F) on Monday due to a significantly developed Siberian High. Its central #pressure now is 1076hPa. Though it is lower than the world's highest pressure of 1083.8hPa recorded in #Siberia in 1968, it's definitely amazing.

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

@Phil was right, vodka cold starts first on Putin's side.  Hopefully Phil will continue to be right.

 

Sayaka Mori

@sayakasofiamori

Siberia's #Oymyakon had -57.2C (-71F) on Monday due to a significantly developed Siberian High. Its central #pressure now is 1076hPa. Though it is lower than the world's highest pressure of 1083.8hPa recorded in #Siberia in 1968, it's definitely amazing.

 

 

 

Looks lovely there...

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Looks lovely there...

 

Just need a big juicy low to come in from the southwest :).  Even if it warms up to -15, who cares, lol.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Just need a big juicy low to come in from the southwest :).  Even if it warms up to -15, who cares, lol.

It is worth noting that the average there right now is -45 for a high and -58 for a low.  

 

[bainbridgekid]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks lovely there...

 

Their average high in January is -45 and they've never been above freezing between October 25th and March 17th.

What an insane place to live.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Their average high in January is -45 and they've never been above freezing between October 25th and March 17th.

What an insane place to live.

 

Yeah... that forecast is actually warmer than average there for the rest of the week!  

[TheNewCulverJosh]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Their average high in January is -45 and they've never been above freezing between October 25th and March 17th.

What an insane place to live.

Just pulled this off the web:

 

 

 

 

 

 

View all

 

 

Over the last few decades, the population of Oymyakon has shrunk significantly. The village had a peak population of roughly 2,500 inhabitants, but that number has decreased to fewer than 900 in 2018.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Just pulled this off the web:

 

 

 

 

 

 

View all

 

 

Over the last few decades, the population of Oymyakon has shrunk significantly. The village had a peak population of roughly 2,500 inhabitants, but that number has decreased to fewer than 900 in 2018.

It didn't shrink because they moved to avoid paying taxes.   Likely culprit:  Natural cryogenics.

[Deweydog]

Those pics could just as easily be of Covington, WA. Next...

Meanwhile here it’s a gorgeous day!

[Phil]

45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Call me a skeptic. but I have a real hard time imagining one of the great patterns of the 20th Century is going to inexplicably emerge from this shitscape. 

It’s not that far off minus the Urals ridging/+EAMT. Reverse that and it gets interesting with in-situ -NAO and the SSW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s not that far off minus the Urals ridging/+EAMT. Reverse that and it gets interesting with in-situ -NAO and the SSW.

I think Fred should pin my post for the January thread. 

[Front Ranger]

0z Euro looked moderately interesting at the end. Same with 12z CMC.

The overwhelming signal with the long range ensembles continues to be a big -NAO block...still waiting for a decent Pacific block to emerge.

[snow_wizard]

50 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

@Phil was right, vodka cold starts first on Putin's side.  Hopefully Phil will continue to be right.

 

Sayaka Mori

@sayakasofiamori

Siberia's #Oymyakon had -57.2C (-71F) on Monday due to a significantly developed Siberian High. Its central #pressure now is 1076hPa. Though it is lower than the world's highest pressure of 1083.8hPa recorded in #Siberia in 1968, it's definitely amazing.

 

 

 

 

When in 1968 did that happen?

[El_Nina]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

 

When in 1968 did that happen?

December 31. 

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Those pics could just as easily be of Covington, WA. Next...

Meanwhile here it’s a gorgeous day!

If only...

At least it dropped to 28 here last night.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, El_Nina said:

December 31. 

Weird....the same time we had our intense cold here.

[El_Nina]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Weird....the same time we had our intense cold here.

The high pressure must've pushed the cold arctic air into the middle latitudes. 

[snow_wizard]

Personally I don't think the pattern being shown is THAT bad.  The GFS ensemble shows sustained below normal 850s for much of the first 12 days of January.  Pretty easy for a block to poke its head up from what is being progged.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Personally I don't think the pattern being shown is THAT bad.  The GFS ensemble shows sustained below normal 850s for much of the first 12 days of January.  Pretty easy for a block to poke its head up from what is being progged.

Actually, I’m not sure you could draw up an eastern Pacifc pattern at the moment that would be more hostile toward block development.  Just a hotbed of progressive vorticity to start 2021.  

[FroYoBro]

Already up to 45 here. Nice day, but I’m definitely ready for a real cold snap for the valley at this point. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Actually, I’m not sure you could draw up an eastern Pacifc pattern at the moment that would be more hostile toward block development.  Just a hotbed of progressive vorticity to start 2021.  

In other words...another failed January. We may as well call it Juneuary and same for June up north where it'll be anomalously cold and wet then and rain til July while we will be cool and dry.

Pattern should turn favorable for significant cold anomalies here sometime in mid-April. Then it'll turn back to shitt as usual once we get our kiss of death October cold snap.

[El_Nina]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Actually, I’m not sure you could draw up an eastern Pacifc pattern at the moment that would be more hostile toward block development.  Just a hotbed of progressive vorticity to start 2021.  

Lots of much needed precip for Oregon being shown at least. Many areas down south and east are still in extreme drought. The only areas that have experienced any improvement are up north and west at the coast, in the coast range and northern cascades. I've been watching that area just to my east where the drought has been eliminated slowly get closer the past couple months. 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Personally I don't think the pattern being shown is THAT bad.  The GFS ensemble shows sustained below normal 850s for much of the first 12 days of January.  Pretty easy for a block to poke its head up from what is being progged.

I just don't get it... you talk about GOA ridging all the time and the ECMWF and EPS show nothing but deep GOA troughing for the foreseeable future.    Its literally the opposite of what you say we need.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

 

When in 1968 did that happen?

December 31st

[Deweydog]

18 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

In other words...another failed January. We may as well call it Juneuary and same for June up north where it'll be anomalously cold and wet then and rain til July while we will be cool and dry.

Pattern should turn favorable for significant cold anomalies here sometime in mid-April. Then it'll turn back to shitt as usual once we get our kiss of death October cold snap.

Mmmkay.

[El_Nina]

15 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Already up to 45 here. Nice day, but I’m definitely ready for a real cold snap for the valley at this point. 

Even when we get snow with those they end up pretty dry, though. December 2008 was 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

So people look at the clown range of the GFS and see arctic cold and snow, and tell us it is the clown range and we should not believe it.  Then they look at the clown range and see progressive, stormy and seasonal weather, and tell us that it IS to be believed, and will no doubt be correct not only for 16 days, but actually for 34 days.

[OysterPrintout]

conflicting reports! Juneuary or Jan 1969 both still on the table!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So people look at the clown range of the GFS and see arctic cold and snow, and tell us it is the clown range and we should not believe it.  Then they look at the clown range and see progressive, stormy and seasonal weather, and tell us that it IS to be believed, and will no doubt be correct not only for 16 days, but actually for 34 days.

There are no favorable signs right now.   That is all.  

Sure... anything can happen.    It would be nice if the EPS started showing something within 15 days... that would be a start.

[Cloud]

A clear day in the heart of winter is spectacular around here. So nice. 

[TacomaWaWx]

30 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

In other words...another failed January. We may as well call it Juneuary and same for June up north where it'll be anomalously cold and wet then and rain til July while we will be cool and dry.

Pattern should turn favorable for significant cold anomalies here sometime in mid-April. Then it'll turn back to shitt as usual once we get our kiss of death October cold snap.

Lol you truly act as if it never ever gets cold or snows. It has plenty of times at your location in Eugene the last 10 years...with a big snowstorm not too long ago. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim is once again annoyingly spot on. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There are no favorable signs right now.   That is all.  

Sure... anything can happen.    It would be nice if the EPS started showing something within 15 days... that would be a start.

Sure, but those that think something is coming are saying mid January.  Wouldn't expect models to pick up on that yet.  I don't think models picked up on anything 3 weeks before December 2008 or February 2019.

[Cloud]

Airport cam. Very nice. 

 Link

 

[Tyler Mode]

Always love microclimates.

It almost always has to do with the east wind...and here's another great example.

Portland airport was sitting at 35 degrees with visibility of less than 350'. Meanwhile, 10 miles east, at Troutdale, it's 44 degrees, completely clear with an east wind gusting to nearly 30 mph...