December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

[bainbridgekid]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim is once again annoyingly spot on. 

Really no signs of anything worthwhile through January 10th and anything beyond that is largely a crapshoot. Something great could happen in the second half of January, but there is no reason to think of that as anything more than potential.

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Sure, but those that think something is coming are saying mid January.  Wouldn't expect models to pick up on that yet.  I don't think models picked up on anything 3 weeks before December 2008 or February 2019.

I still think a major pattern shift is likely around mid month.  Could start with ridging popping over us but retrograde fairly quickly.  We’ll be going on about six weeks since any real meridional action at that point so it fits pretty well.

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim is once again annoyingly spot on. 

I was just echoing your sentiments from earlier... which were also annoyingly spot on.

[Deweydog]

41 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So people look at the clown range of the GFS and see arctic cold and snow, and tell us it is the clown range and we should not believe it.  Then they look at the clown range and see progressive, stormy and seasonal weather, and tell us that it IS to be believed, and will no doubt be correct not only for 16 days, but actually for 34 days.

The difference at the moment is that the signal for a very active Pacific is pretty overwhelming. It will eventually slow down but it will take time, as is consistent with climo.

Any of the fleeting signals (at best) for AK blocking earlier this month weren’t nearly in the same ballpark.

[Deweydog]

Oh Fred!  You’re the silliest!!!

[El_Nina]

Windy, sunny and up to 45. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

I've got bulbs starting to sprout and my grass seems to be coming out of dormancy. Looking at Tim's well timed maps, looks like I can start yard prep in mid January.

I agree with Matt... a shake up is probably likely after mid-month.     I never said otherwise.    

We are just not seeing it yet in the models.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

41 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol you truly act as if it never ever gets cold or snows. It has plenty of times at your location in Eugene the last 10 years...with a big snowstorm not too long ago. 

Well there certainly doesn't seem to be anything favorable in the models. When they show something favorable, the rug often gets pulled, when they show something unfavorable 15-days out, it often verifies especially in Jan.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Hmm.

In all seriousness, not really picking on Tim this time. I get that people see a shake up mid month, based on a ticking clock and a pending SSW, but I don't see it. We were due for an outright dud and with the poor ice setup leading into the season, the warm Pacific, and just the general trend of our climate, I just don't see anything happening this month. Maybe something in Feb ala 2011, but at that point its just a couple days of cold weather, one day near freezing, and on to spring we go.

I also know that this is partially a weenie cop out, but there is a touch of bias as I really want to rescue my lawn and get some gardening done.

Wasn’t last winter a dud? Awfully soon to be “due” for another one.

[Timmy]

8 minutes ago, iFred said:

I think that the EPS hinted as something when it was in range. The forecast into 2008 could be expected given the tech.

Sure tech has improved but the eps was showing pacific ridging around the new year not long ago.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

And actually I like this upcoming pattern, so I am not complaining.  Would be good to see arctic air, but this pattern will most likely give my location lots of snow.

I think people heard some hype about the 3rd week of December, which didn't pan out, and are extrapolating that disappointment for the rest of the winter.  Lots of potential, but obviously nothing gaurenteed.

I have always been amused by people who say we are "overdue" so it will happen, or that we can't have a good February because we have had too many lately.  Don't think that is how things work.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wasn’t last winter a dud? Awfully soon to be “due” for another one.

Last winter is a tough one for the dewness scale.  We came REALLY REALLY close to getting REALLY REALLY cold.  Plus it snowed here a little in the middle of March.

On the broader scale, we down here are still paying for December 2013 through January 2017.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Living in a place that gets a White Christmas once every 40 years, and not being able to move, is depressing, sorry. Esp when places to the north get them regularly now. 2-25-19 was awesome but also pretty wet and sloppy. When was the last time we had a Dec-Jan event here that dropped more than 8"?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wasn’t last winter a dud? Awfully soon to be “due” for another one.

Most winters are duds here. We get lucky once in a while but our access to Arctic air is seemingly becoming more and more scarce. No 1990 event in 30 years ain't no joke. It's a trend.

[Requiem]

At least it looks stormy :)

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, iFred said:

Hmm.

In all seriousness, not really picking on Tim this time. I get that people see a shake up mid month, based on a ticking clock and a pending SSW, but I don't see it. We were due for an outright dud and with the poor ice setup leading into the season, the warm Pacific, and just the general trend of our climate, I just don't see anything happening this month. Maybe something in Feb ala 2011, but at that point its just a couple days of cold weather, one day near freezing, and on to spring we go.

I also know that this is partially a weenie cop out, but there is a touch of bias as I really want to rescue my lawn and get some gardening done.

In the event of an all out dud, which is certainly still on the table, next winter should be primed quite nicely.

[bainbridgekid]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wasn’t last winter a dud? Awfully soon to be “due” for another one.

Mid January 2020 was pretty good from Seattle North.

[liquidsnow]

So are we cancelling winter or is Mr Snow and Mr Cold going to just be social distancing from the PNW a bit longer?

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Most winters are duds here. We get lucky once in a while but our access to Arctic air is seemingly becoming more and more scarce. No 1990 event in 30 years ain't no joke. It's a trend.

People have to remember that was arguably the greatest December Arctic event for the West overall in the past 75+ years. A very anomalous air mass, by any standards.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting some spring yard projects today! 

[Front Ranger]

20 minutes ago, iFred said:

Hmm.

In all seriousness, not really picking on Tim this time. I get that people see a shake up mid month, based on a ticking clock and a pending SSW, but I don't see it. We were due for an outright dud and with the poor ice setup leading into the season, the warm Pacific, and just the general trend of our climate, I just don't see anything happening this month. Maybe something in Feb ala 2011, but at that point its just a couple days of cold weather, one day near freezing, and on to spring we go.

I also know that this is partially a weenie cop out, but there is a touch of bias as I really want to rescue my lawn and get some gardening done.

I haven't really seen evidence that lower Arctic ice means lower chances of the PNW, or even lower 48, getting cold.

2016 had even less Arctic ice going into December than this year...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

People have to remember that was arguably the greatest December Arctic event for the West overall in the past 75+ years. A very anomalous air mass, by any standards.

It has to be top 5 for December 1900-present. Arguably 3rd best. 

[MossMan]

Thanks to all of the negativity I had to shove baby back in the corner. 

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Thanks to all of the negativity I had to shove baby back in the corner. 

 

[El_Nina]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Hmm.

In all seriousness, not really picking on Tim this time. I get that people see a shake up mid month, based on a ticking clock and a pending SSW, but I don't see it. We were due for an outright dud and with the poor ice setup leading into the season, the warm Pacific, and just the general trend of our climate, I just don't see anything happening this month. Maybe something in Feb ala 2011, but at that point its just a couple days of cold weather, one day near freezing, and on to spring we go.

I also know that this is partially a weenie cop out, but there is a touch of bias as I really want to rescue my lawn and get some gardening done.

Deal me in for another epic February, would really like to go through another February 2018. Several snows working their way up to an 8" total the 21st. Started with a dusting the 14th, 4-5" paste the night of the 18th then it snowed again the evening of the 20th and brought us up to 8". 

This was the morning of the 21st.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

17 minutes ago, iFred said:

I take it you're not in a position to move?

No, my current family rescued me from a disastrous situation. I am forever, happily indebted to them.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day...

[Dave]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Thanks to all of the negativity I had to shove baby back in the corner. 

Maybe take the plow off. That should shake the models up a bit.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, dolt said:

Maybe take the plow off. That should shake the models up a bit.

And put it in a big safe.

[BLI snowman]

38 minutes ago, iFred said:

Hmm.

In all seriousness, not really picking on Tim this time. I get that people see a shake up mid month, based on a ticking clock and a pending SSW, but I don't see it. We were due for an outright dud and with the poor ice setup leading into the season, the warm Pacific, and just the general trend of our climate, I just don't see anything happening this month. Maybe something in Feb ala 2011, but at that point its just a couple days of cold weather, one day near freezing, and on to spring we go.

I also know that this is partially a weenie cop out, but there is a touch of bias as I really want to rescue my lawn and get some gardening done.

The complete lack of cold on this side of the globe doesn't feel like a standalone pattern-oriented fluke. It obviously fits well within the overall trend of the last half decade. We can't just expect to torch globally for 18 months straight and then magically nosedive once December comes around. Everything is tied together and our major winter cold airmasses don't happen in a vacuum. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Still no signs on ensembles for any Gulf of Alaska ridging. Not yet. We patiently and increasingly impatiently wait. And wait. And wait. Onto 00z runs tonight!

00z GFS in 6 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 37 minutes

[BLI snowman]

26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I haven't really seen evidence that lower Arctic ice means lower chances of the PNW, or even lower 48, getting cold.

2016 had even less Arctic ice going into December than this year...

2016-17 was also a gangbusters upper level setup for us that comes around once every 10-20 years. Perfecly placed 500mb anomalies while the rest of the continent largely torched. Can't expect that every year.

[Dave]

Someone hand a bottle to the uncle. Perhaps to some of us as well. 

[BLI snowman]

I didn't even look at a single frame of the 12z Euro.

[ShawniganLake]

The 18z will drop the arctic hammer.  That 920 something low in the west pacific is just screwing with the models for now. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

I didn't even look at a single frame of the 12z Euro.

Merry Christmas!

[ShawniganLake]

47 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Living in a place that gets a White Christmas once every 40 years, and not being able to move, is depressing, sorry. Esp when places to the north get them regularly now. 2-25-19 was awesome but also pretty wet and sloppy. When was the last time we had a Dec-Jan event here that dropped more than 8"?

White Christmas’s are over rated anyway

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The 18z will drop the arctic hammer.  That 920 something low in the west pacific is just screwing with the models for now. 

Who knows. On the EURO the Day 3 low which seems to be trending stronger(927mb on 12z) and a notch further west, IF it were to develop a bit sooner over the Western Bering that would hug it along Kamchatka and pump up a huge Gulf of Alaska ridge. I don't know if we can rule that out entirely. #graspingatalotofstraws

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Merry Christmas!

 

I owe you an unbelievable debt of gratitude for this good sir.