December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TheNewCulverJosh]

High temp was 26.9, now dropping, currently 25.7.   Gotta love fake cold!!

[Gradient Keeper]

High temp was 46.5 around 12:30 PM, temp dropped steadily all afternoon now at 40.8 due to low level cold strengthening in the Gorge. Those east winds are mighty chilly today as opposed to yesterday's 48 degree winds. Looking at Mesoanalysis the 925mb cold pool has been expanding. Not bitter, but not bad! C'MON!!!!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

I ran a string to Mark Nelsen's house and left a dixie cup on his porch.  My cup is tied on and ready for any information he may have. :).  

There's your CC, guys.

[Gradient Keeper]

29 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Lots of windstorm potential in the coming weeks. 

This is about as good as it gets. Definite wind storm pattern.

[Winterdog]

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Squirrel is a favourite of mine especially around the holidays.  Try brining it first then a slow roast. 

They are somewhat more tasty than Possum but you gotta take what you can get.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

46 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

That's unreal. That reminds me of Feb 1989 over Alaska/Western Yukon I believe. These kind of events pretty much put a hole or dent in the atmosphere due to the extreme sinking motion.

[Jesse]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Teeth gnashing aside, today is absolutely stunning.  Just best to ignore the surrounding snowless foothills.

My wife had a Facebook memory pop up from 2015 when we filled the back of the pickup with snow from Larch Mountain.  #ninamemories

Hate to break it to you but I am enjoying today too.

Of course we are in eastern Oregon where it is in the low 30s along with the sunny skies and SNOW on the ground.

[AbbyJr]

SSW has begun. 

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

SSW has begun. 

Very nice. The models will reflect that fairly soon with huge, profound changes.

[Gradient Keeper]

Can we just fast forward present time from today(Monday) to Thursday-Friday when models in the 'believable' time frame may REALLY turn interesting if not crazy! Thanks!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Can we just fast forward present time from today(Monday) to Thursday-Friday when models in the 'believable' time frame may REALLY turn interesting if not crazy! Thanks!

Believable within 3-5 days or one of those 8-12 windows we know so much about  ?

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Squirrel is a favourite of mine especially around the holidays.  Try brining it first then a slow roast. 

 

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Squirrel is a favourite of mine especially around the holidays.  Try brining it first then a slow roast. 

They are high in cholesterol. 

[MossMan]

Had a high of 41 and a low of 30. 
currently 37. 

[El_Nina]

Wind has died down and it's down to 39. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

4:39 PM, and hit the lowest temp since midnight already at 25.3.  Still very light "inversion" flurries coming down.  I will take the fake flurry coating any day of the week!!!

[High Desert Mat?]

19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Very nice. The models will reflect that fairly soon with huge, profound changes.

Sure wish I knew how to read that map. Someone tell me how you know it’s started now? For real. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The mythical beast SSW has arrived!

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Acer said:

With all this negativity Jim is likely to have his first winter tantrum soon before exiting stage left.
 

 

 

I'm fine with where we're at right now.  Massive SSW in progress and the models suddenly becoming more bullish on a potentially very favorable MJO emerging.  The models will have lots to think about the next 10 days.  MJO and SSW are both wild card the models don't respond well to initially.

[AbbyJr]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm fine with where we're at right now.  Massive SSW in progress and the models suddenly becoming more bullish on a potentially very favorable MJO emerging.  The models will have lots to think about the next 10 days.  MJO and SSW are both wild card the models don't respond well to initially.

What MJO phase is most favourable for us?

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Yes, can someone paint a picture of SSW affects, that even Mat can understand? LOL

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see a Winter Storm Watch posted for most of the Cascade Range. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do models "think?" Are they sentient? 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Do models "think?" Are they sentient? 

The EM model is very sentient........"Elon Musk Model".

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

What MJO phase is most favourable for us?

IMO 2/3, 5, and 7.  Most models show the wave beginning in 2.  It seems like 5 is really great when an already emerged wave moves into the region as opposed to emerging there.  7 almost always brings legit cold.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

What MJO phase is most favourable for us?

Depends on the time of year, ENSO, and cycle+maturity of QBO.

[snow_wizard]

Here is an illustration of how fast the SSW will happen over the next week.  The warm area moves to the very top of the globe and intensifies.  It also splits the PV.

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

201 pages so far this month.  I am going to predict that January is so insane, 1000+ pages may be happening!!!

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends on the time of year, ENSO, and cycle+maturity of QBO.

Very good point.  The areas I gave are dead of winter.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One of these days I would love for him to be proven right. 

Really unfair.

[El_Nina]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends on the time of year, ENSO, and cycle+maturity of QBO.

Yeah. 

[jakerepp]

SSW!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

What is going to push that SSW out to the NW a little more?  

Edit: Or even W/SW would work.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

What is going to push that SSW out to the NW a little more?  

Edit: Or even W/SW would work.

Really big fans

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Really big fans

Sweet, let me talk to some of those people up there.  Seriously though, I know SSW is a great initial player but being up there is only a part of the equation.  I don't see any retrogression imminent, I just see the cold air deepening in central Canada.

[Timmy]

6 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

What is going to push that SSW out to the NW a little more?  

Edit: Or even W/SW would work.

That’s a temp anomaly at about 100k feet. Little bearing directly on the weather below.  What it does say is that cold air high up will be forced down, somewhere.  From what I understand it does increase chances of Arctic air and lower latitudes.

[El_Nina]

2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Sweet, let me talk to some of those people up there.  Seriously though, I know SSW is a great initial player but being up there is only a part of the equation.  I don't see any retrogression imminent, I just see the cold air deepening in central Canada.

With the UFO videos released by the navy earlier this year and monoliths popping up in the desert sw, maybe we can make a deal with them. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

What is going to push that SSW out to the NW a little more?  

Edit: Or even W/SW would work.

The upper level winds reverse when the SSW is complete.  Remember the anomalies at 10mb are far different than what is taking place in the lower levels.

[AbbyJr]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends on the time of year, ENSO, and cycle+maturity of QBO.

So in this case, January with a -ENSO/+QBO, what would be most favourable?

[MossMan]

3yrs ago it was all about the Kona Low, 2yrs ago it’s all about the Retrogression, and last year it was all about the Low Solar. This season it’s the SSW...
Wonder what we will have to obsess about next season. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The upper level winds reverse when the SSW is complete.  Remember the anomalies at 10mb are far different than what is taking place in the lower levels.

Thanks for the info.....we all like to post pretty maps with pretty colors but some are hard to understand.  I frankly just do not have the time to dissect and understand as well as some others on here.  Cheers to you Jim.