December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

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Day 5 North America view

(Past 4 runs)

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I don't like that trend Day 3.5 to 5 to not dig the trough quite as much.

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Day 6 North Pacific view

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

53 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Am I having deja vu? Seems like I saw this exact same post earlier.

Yep! I posted it a few hours ago.

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Day 7 North America view

(Past 4 runs)

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Day 8

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No blocking on this run, not yet.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 13 minutes

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Day 9'er

[TheNewCulverJosh]

I will take lows N. of Vancouver Island for 500, Alex.

 

Almost perfect for Juneau.  Great for Skagway.

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00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[BLI snowman]

Pretty boring GFS run. Standard 00z/12z stuff.

[Deweydog]

That Greenland block is gangsta.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That Greenland block is gangsta.

Didn't '89 have a Greenland block in place?  I think I remember reading that here.  And I do believe the north pole had negative anomalies.

[Requiem]

CMC looked far better than the GFS, that's for sure. Storm-wise, at least.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm....

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Didn't '89 have a Greenland block in place?  I think I remember reading that here.  And I do believe the north pole had negative anomalies.

1989 had a scandinavian block. didn’t have time to develop -NAO IIRC. That whole process was bizarre and unfolded at lightning speed. 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

FWIW, the latest weeklies show a strong jet until roughly mid January at which point a ridge pops up and slowly retrogrades to the sweet spot. Notably chilly 850mb temp anomalies start around the 3rd week of January. 

Although, this model has often shown the goods in the back half the run which have so far failed to materialize. We'll see if that's still the case in the coming month. 

 

There’s your 1968/69 pattern. Gets going later than I would expect but then again evolution of IO MJO is unclear..longer it hangs back in IO the longer the NPAC pattern will take to flip.

[MossMan]

32. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Went snow shoeing for the first time today up on Baker.  Really nice day, though kinda warm (34-35 degrees).  Clouds moved in on the return hike back to the car.  Snow was quite crunchy, but looking forward to getting up there and doing it again.

 

Currently 33 here.

[Gradient Keeper]

48 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

FWIW, the latest weeklies show a strong jet until roughly mid January at which point a ridge pops up and slowly retrogrades to the sweet spot. Notably chilly 850mb temp anomalies start around the 3rd week of January. 

Although, this model has often shown the goods in the back half the run which have so far failed to materialize. We'll see if that's still the case in the coming month. 

 

That looks incredible!

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00z ECMWF Day 1

[Deweydog]

Could be a Phun Phebruary!

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Day 2

[Deweydog]

Five degrees colder here than it is in Pasco.

#reversecoldpool

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Day 3

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Pretty

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  I was looking at the latest extended GFS ensemble control and it has an epic finish to January.  It gets decent in the 15th to 20th time frame and then goes nuts.  The mean is at least solid -PNA.

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Day 4

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Pretty

Not every day (or probably every year) you see a 924 low in the North Pacific!

[KenfromSalem]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not every day (or probably every year) you see a 924 low in the North Pacific!

Crazy

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Hmmm.... 00z GEFS after Day 10 showing signs of progressing like the new weeklies...

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not every day (or probably every year) you see a 924 low in the North Pacific!

Imagine what it must be like being in the Aleutians while one of those storms is passing through.

Here's the last 3 days at Adak - it gets much, much stormier than this. Note the 947mb sea level pressure on the 26th.

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PADK.html

Gorgeous island chain too - on one of the five sunny days they get per year. Actually, that's pretty close to being a literal statement.

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Day 5

[MossMan]

15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Pretty

Imagine that bad boy meandering in at the Wa/Or coast with massive arctic air at the border...

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm.... 00z GEFS after Day 10 showing signs of progressing like the new weeklies...

The extended GEFS unfolds very much like the Euro weeklies.  By late January it has the NAO, EPO, and PNA all minus.

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Day 6

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The extended GEFS unfolds very much like the Euro weeklies.  By late January it has the NAO, EPO, and PNA all minus.

I’m starting to sense a January 1996 timeframe/redux in the works. 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The extended GEFS unfolds very much like the Euro weeklies.  By late January it has the NAO, EPO, and PNA all minus.

It's coming my friend. Finally! It will develop before late January.

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00z GEFS Day 10-16. Strong zonal flow, then ridge builds just offshore as the jet dies and retracts. The ridge begins its retrogression phase. Amazing consistency with the weeklies. Classic retrogression pattern!

 

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Day 7