December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

 

00z GEFS Day 10-16. Strong zonal flow, then ridge builds just offshore as the jet dies and retracts. The ridge begins its retrogression phase. Amazing consistency with the weeklies. Classic retrogression pattern!

 This looks like it could be onto something.  Seeing multiple models show the same progression is promising.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

 This looks like it could be onto something.  Seeing multiple models show the same progression is promising.

I'm way past cautious optimism. It's coming and timing is going to speed up a tad too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It resembles the weeklies as well. Big ridge pops up after the jet extension and then retrogrades. Takes a while to get to the good frames though... As in 30+ days. 

My old adage is if it happens it will probably be sooner than progged.  As long as it's going good in the final third of January I will be happy.

[Phil]

Extended range GEFS..dayumm that’s a block.

[Link]

What if it turns out all the artic air is locked behind either a microtransaction paying system or god forbid a Lootbox system?

 

[snow_wizard]

One thing for sure is it's going to get stormy in the near future.  Those are some really low heights being shown.

[Link]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing for sure is it's going to get stormy in the near future.  Those are some really low heights being shown.

Will the storms be free updates or will it be paid DLC's for our flight sim?

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

My old adage is if it happens it will probably be sooner than progged.  As long as it's going good in the final third of January I will be happy.

I'll be exhausted.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That was a nice trough at the end of the GFS Operational. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Looking at the past 8 GEFS runs at HR 240-360 the jet retraction was nearly identical, but the downstream response of the ridge development was absent. Tonight is the first run that seems to be modeling the downstream response correctly.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Deweydog]

So now the SSW is NOT gonna f*ck with the models?

That’s a relief...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It resembles the weeklies as well. Big ridge pops up after the jet extension and then retrogrades. Takes a while to get to the good frames though... As in 30+ days. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO with a Mega Nina run!

6z GFS in 2 hours 30 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

No. 39 looking good.

[snow_wizard]

A solidly nippy 30 degrees right now.  At least we are getting more freezing nights lately.

[Gradient Keeper]

Columbia Basin cold pool deepening and expanding.

 

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

EURO with a Mega Nina run!

6z GFS in 2 hours 30 minutes

Day 10 is pretty impressive in it's own right.  Gigantic trough with some serious suppression.  Things are about to get real!

[snow_wizard]

One really freakish thing being shown on most models is the NE getting torched with a huge -NAO.  Really bizarre sheit.

[Jesse]

Looks PDX already improved upon its low by two degrees this evening.

Meanwhile it is crystal clear and 10F here in Granite, Oregon, NW of Baker City. It’s so bright with the moon out and the snowcover we could practically drive without headlights on the road up here.

[Winterdog]

28.6 here while patiently waiting for the end of January.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Looks PDX already improved upon its low by two degrees this evening.

Meanwhile it is crystal clear and 10F here in Granite, Oregon, NW of Baker City. It’s so bright with the moon out and the snowcover we could practically drive without headlights on the road up here.

I had no idea you were over there. I haven't been in that area since I was a kid when we camped at Grand Ronde Lake and hiked around Anthony Lake. Such an amazing area.

[GHweatherChris]

Next...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

[Gradient Keeper]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

 

That area is very seismically active.

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

 

[GHweatherChris]

Got my daily hot dog!!

[Phil]

40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One really freakish thing being shown on most models is the NE getting torched with a huge -NAO.  Really bizarre sheit.

That can easily happen. See Dec 2012 and Feb 2018.

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

15 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Next...

 

I rarely post anything to the forum because I realize I have nothing of real value to contribute, but then I see your comments and realize that substance and value are not necessarily mandatory prerequisites.

[Gradient Keeper]

Anyone seen JB around lately?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Anyone seen JB around lately?

He said he was leaving.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

9 minutes ago, Runtmc said:

I rarely post anything to the forum because I realize I have nothing of real value to contribute, but then I see your comments and realize that substance and value are not necessarily mandatory prerequisites.

And here we go...

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

He said he was leaving.

No kidding? I must have missed it. I wonder why. Well that sucks.

[GHweatherChris]

12 minutes ago, Runtmc said:

I rarely post anything to the forum because I realize I have nothing of real value to contribute, but then I see your comments and realize that substance and value are not necessarily mandatory prerequisites.

You must be really new here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Any improvements with the Day 10-15 EPS?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Any improvements with the Day 10-15 EPS?

EC ensemble