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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

EAMT East Asia or Eurasian Mountain Torque? or no?

East Asian MT yes. 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Thanks. I'm trying to get the hang of a lot of what you post. My areas of expertise are extremely limited to Pressure Gradients, IR/WV Loops, and ironically, not ****ing the bed. I'm very good at that.

00z GFS in 3 hours 22 minutes

I personally look forward to your WV loops, with analysis, before every forecasted wind event.

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Latest ENSO 3.4 reading is -0.9C

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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-NAO also slows the AMOC & lowers Gulf Stream temperatures.

Would take a nice bite out of Arctic OHC if by some miracle it can persist beyond a few years. Lol. 🤷‍♀️

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

-NAO also slows the AMOC & lowers Gulf Stream temperatures.

Would take a nice bite out of Arctic OHC if by some miracle it can persist beyond a few years. Lol. 🤷‍♀️

Some sort of big block in the NAO region is present and persistent on all models. Seems like we haven't seen anything like that since the 2010-11 winter.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1609264800-Ct7Ewa4xXf8.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

How about PDX?

1609264800-e9XgqV40eHk.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Roseburg doe...

1609264800-AlqpBovoOH0.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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About 9 days out should be interesting...barring a rug-pull.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Looks like a run of the mill, coastal/NW interior windstorm.  Don't see 60 even making it inland anywhere.

Yea what’s modeled is definitely not run of the mill. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yea what’s modeled is definitely not run of the mill. 

Just from experience, I never saw those winds materialize in anywhere but east county, NW interior, and or near Admiralty Inlet, N. of Everett, etc.......while I lived there for 14 years.

Not poo-pooing anything, I just don't see that as a huge windstorm for interior valleys.

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8 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Just from experience, I never saw those winds materialize in anywhere but east county, NW interior, and or near Admiralty Inlet, N. of Everett, etc.......while I lived there for 14 years.

Not poo-pooing anything, I just don't see that as a huge windstorm for interior valleys.

You mean windstorms don’t produce strong winds anywhere else in the lowlands?

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX has achieved 40. Knew they would find some way to pull it off. Calendar year 2020 will go down with 0 sub-40 highs.

An almost wintry 38/24 today at SLE. 

Still better than even odds SLE has already seen their coldest max of the winter with the 33 on Christmas Eve. 

I’m struggling to remember the last time they pulled it off?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Didn't say that, but there is a signature for the strongest winds in the normal locations.....at least via that model.

There’s always stronger winds up north obviously...but we can get pretty strong southerly winds in the interior valleys south of Everett in Washington and Oregon...just not as easy as the north interior. We’ve had a few 60Mph+ storms in the past couple years. 3 60mph storms in a 3 week time span in 18-19. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s always stronger winds up north obviously...but we can get pretty strong southerly winds in the interior valleys south of Everett in Washington and Oregon...just not as easy as the north interior. We’ve had a few 60Mph+ storms in the past couple years. 3 60mph storms in a 3 week time span in 18-19. 

True, I'm just talking about likelihood.

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6 hours ago, Timmy said:

You can rent those houses for like 80$ a night. Although I think there is no water in the winter time. There is a wood pipe that goes from there to olive Lake (7miles) it’s probably mostly buried in snow right now. But pretty cool They used it to create power at the powerhouse and then it ran all the way down to Sumpter.

It was cool. We even got a personal tour from the winter caretaker. Well actually it sounds like he’s up there all year. That would be quite the life.

He also owns the lodge down in Granite which is where we are staying.

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52 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yea what’s modeled is definitely not run of the mill. 

That period needs to be watched.  Some model runs have a pretty insane looking bomb hitting somewhere in the NW.  The trajectory seems a bit flat for a classic though.  Still well worth watching.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

-NAO also slows the AMOC & lowers Gulf Stream temperatures.

Would take a nice bite out of Arctic OHC if by some miracle it can persist beyond a few years. Lol. 🤷‍♀️

My mowerplow has a duel OHC! Coincidence...I don’t think so!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It was cool. We even got a personal tour from the winter caretaker. Well actually it sounds like he’s up there all year. That would be quite the life.

He also owns the lodge down in Granite which is where we are staying.

Yup I’ve met him. He had a dog up there too in the summer.  Maybe don’t read up on him while you are staying there...  

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The ensembles seem to have picked up on a theme of the above normal heights associated with the NAO block retrograding westward though Canada during the first half of January.  Probably due to the strat warming event reversing the polar gyre.  The models seem to want to merge (bridge) the NAO block remnants with something over the Pacific around mid January.  Besides that the models are now looking confident there will be an MJO wave emerging soon.  It will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Extended range GEFS, Jan 18-25.

Coldest 850mb anomalies anywhere in the NH are located over NW North America.

 

image.png

image.png

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We’re staying here one more night... 😰

Whatever you do....don't ever stay at any point from I5 to Packwood.  Nice people but that is a huge banana belt.   I stayed there for a week during winter, mid-January.  Was literally 50 degrees there when the forecast called for snow levels below it's elevation.  I ended up driving up a little higher, a couple afternoons, literally 10 miles down the highway and it was a winter wonderland.

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4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I never actually read up on it but legend has it that he killed a man cowboy style. But I don’t know the details.  I know he had the lodge for sale when we were up there.

We were talking to the lady who we reserved the AirBnB through today and she was saying it just sold. They are hoping the new owners keep it as a lodge and don’t turn it into a private home.

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10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Ventrice's tweet seemed to indicate it would become mature in about 6 days or so.  Does that sound right to you?  And maybe a mid January arctic outbreak.

Yeah roughly a week for the first attack. That said, as modeled presently, this looks like a fairly prolonged event. Could be multiple warmings as Eurasian PV lobe takes multiple hits and bleeds out.

Timing of pattern change hinges on both the SSW structure/wave driving and the subsequent MJO response in IO. But yeah, second half of January looks like a smart wager to me if there ever was one.

Unfiltered CPC phase diagrams for MJO likely aren’t going to grab the inception of the MJO at first, given elements of interference, so ignore those for now.

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