December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[The Swamp]

In April we may still be talking about the SSW.

[Phil]

Big flip in Eurasia.

Perhaps not what we want in the near term but let’s see what happens.

[Gradient Keeper]

It really looks like that ridge is just waiting for the WPAC jet to retract and then its game on possibly.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 13

[Blizzard777]

34 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

OT, but everyone in Leavenworth city limits just got a reverse 911 call asking people to evacuate, as there is a bomb threat by the gazebo.  I am about 3/4 of a mile away, so I will stay put.  There is a live cam here, you can see the sheriffs and sheriffs dogs searching.

Celebrate from Home with the Village of Lights Live Stream - YouTube

They took the live view offline 

stay safe Brian and of course I hope it’s a hoax

[Phil]

Interesting..

[GobBluth]

11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 13

Greenland high migrating into a west coast block may make this forum explode.

[Phil]

Wave-3 @ 10mb? Alrighty then.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Phil said:

Wave-3 @ 10mb? Alrighty then.

What does this mean for us?

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Wave-3 @ 10mb? Alrighty then.

Wave 3 bad I'm guessing?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

They took the live view offline 

stay safe Brian and of course I hope it’s a hoax

Thanks, appreciated!  Even if there was a big explosions, I am far enough away to be safe.  Wondering if someone was upset by tourists because of Covid and wanted people to leave.  So far everything appears to be ok.

[Phil]

Stuff like this matters, and it’s why the next 10 days are so important.

18z GFS vs 00z GFS. Both major SSW events but very different wave positions/structures.

(Not saying it’s bad or good or anything..just observing).

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wave 3 bad I'm guessing?

I don’t think it’s bad. Where/how the wave energy is being processed is important, though.

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

4 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

In April we may still be talking about the SSW.

Well, it’s a weather forum in the midst of a rather (so far)uneventful winter, so I’m wondering what else you’d prefer to talk about?  Endless posts about how it’s 41 and raining in the “swamp” or those that suggest Eugene is a snow-deprived wasteland, derelict and forgotten by Mother Nature? Or perhaps mocking “we’re fuc$&!” (MLK!) posts after every bad run?  I personally enjoy the speculative, sometimes-bordering-on creative analysis in these moments.  Pretty boring place otherwise.  Keep it up, I say.  Not to mention the naysayers would have no identity otherwise.  Just like me.  

[Deweydog]

Model inconsistency beyond 10 days?

#onlyin2020

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, Phil said:

Nah, I don’t think so. Where/how the wave energy is being processed is important, though.

Phil, have you been checking GFS V16?  Any thoughts about if it is more accurate?

[Phil]

In fact my brain kinda prefers the 00z solution in the upper levels. I just think we’re entering that period where models begin to swing and gyrate..which can be entertaining of course but is also migraine inducing. I actually don’t look forward to that part lol.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, Phil said:

In fact I think I prefer the 00z solution in the upper levels. I just think we’re entering that period where models begin to swing and gyrate..which is entertaining but also migraine inducing.

Kind of like a typical Seahawk game for us Hawk fans.  

[TheNewCulverJosh]

There is a reason why Mark Nelsen absolutely will not do forecasts at all past day 7, and he knows that after day 5, it is at best 50/50.

A lot of you on here hang on Day 10, Day 12, Day 16.  Some even go further and go 18, 20, 24......  And the sickest among you care what a 30 day GEFS model shows, lol.

 

Well, at least you act like you do :).

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Phil, have you been checking GFS V16?  Any thoughts about if it is more accurate?

I haven’t been. Do you have a link for it?

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

In fact I kinda prefer the 00z solution in the upper levels. I just think we’re entering that period where models begin to swing and gyrate..which is entertaining but also migraine inducing.

The GFS long range, the gold standard conduit for extrapolatory pontification, has left a lot to be desired. Way too consistent and aligned with reality for many weeks outside a outlier here or there.  Boring...

[Meatyorologist]

"Half a mile underground in New Zealand, a starry sky twinkles. Or so these glow worms want you to think.

The Waitomo Caves are home to bioluminescent larvae, destined to become the much less sparkly Arachnocampa luminosa gnat. Like fireflies, these worms glow using chemical reactions. Unlike fireflies, they use their powers for hunting, not finding love. The lights confuse moths — which use the real night sky to navigate — and their wings get tangled in the gooey strings of beads dangled by the worms on the cave ceiling.

The worm then reels the disoriented and sticky moth in. Slime seeps into its breathing holes, and it's still alive when the worm begins to feed."

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I haven’t been. Do you have a link for it?

On Pivotal.  Models: GFSv16 — Pivotal Weather

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

There is a reason why Mark Nelsen absolutely will not do forecasts at all past day 7, and he knows that after day 5, it is at best 50/50.

A lot of you on here hang on Day 10, Day 12, Day 16.  Some even go further and go 18, 20, 24......  And the sickest among you care what a 30 day GEFS model shows, lol.

 

Well, at least you act like you do :).

The NWS doesn't either.  But lots do, including the CPC, many private companies who need long range forecasts to make business decisions, etc.  And it wouldn't be very fun if all we looked at was the 7 day.  And, despite what you think, just about everyone on here knows how unreliable it can be. so we are more concerned about trends, ensembles, etc. 

[Deweydog]

Kind of a shame the Pacific is so balls to the wall as that NAO block clearly wants to help keep the jet rather suppressed.  Just no real opportunity to tap into any kind of interior cold with things consistently turning over.  Could pop up rather quickly though...

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Kind of a shame the Pacific is so balls to the wall as that NAO block clearly wants to help keep the jet rather suppressed.  Just no real opportunity to tap into any kind of interior cold with things consistently turning over pretty quickly.  Could pop up rather quickly though...

Agreed.

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

On Pivotal.  Models: GFSv16 — Pivotal Weather

Thanks brother.

[Gradient Keeper]

For the 00z EURO I will post both North America and North Pacific views. Oh, I see the GEFS stopped at HR 42 on Pivotal.

[Phil]

Thread. Click image for follow ups.

 

[AbbyJr]

Its been mentioned on here before but I'll mention it again. That is, it seems that many back east seem to think that every SSW event is going to favour them for arctic air. 

I'll add that its a bit frustrating that its so hard to find any commentary on how the upcoming SSW event may impact the NW US. Rather, its always talk about how it could send major cold down into the NE US.

The question is whether or not there is any data to back up the idea that SSW's always favour the east?

Perhaps there are just more weather enthusiasts and commentators in the east and at least some of them have a cold bias? To be fair, those back east could say that we have a cold bias in the PNW.

What are all of your thoughts?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Its been mentioned on here before but I'll mention it again. That is, it seems that many back east seem to think that every SSW event is going to favour them for arctic air. 

I'll add that its a bit frustrating that its so hard to find any commentary on how the upcoming SSW event may impact the NW US. Rather, its always talk about how it could send major cold down into the NE US.

The question is whether or not there is any data to back up the idea that SSW's always favour the east?

Perhaps there are just more weather enthusiasts and commentators in the east and at least some of them have a cold bias? To be fair, those back east could say that we have a cold bias in the PNW.

What are all of your thoughts?

Yup.  Someone asked Judah Cohen if the SSW could affect the PNW and he said the PNW is only affected by the Pacific Ocean. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Its been mentioned on here before but I'll mention it again. That is, it seems that many back east seem to think that every SSW event is going to favour them for arctic air. 

I'll add that its a bit frustrating that its so hard to find any commentary on how the upcoming SSW event may impact the NW US. Rather, its always talk about how it could send major cold down into the NE US.

The question is whether or not there is any data to back up the idea that SSW's always favour the east?

Perhaps there are just more weather enthusiasts and commentators in the east and at least some of them have a cold bias? To be fair, those back east could say that we have a cold bias in the PNW.

What are all of your thoughts?

Arctic air invading the US has a general tendency to favor the east, so theoretically they’re right.

SSW’s are a grab bag phenomenon.  It shakes the snowglobe in ways that can’t be directly attributed to nearly the level of continuous progression you’d like. Cold air will be on the move, which is a good thing for everyone who likes cold air.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[ShawniganLake]

Wet 36hrs coming up. Will catapult December to a wetter than average month here. Warm and wet for the month 

[AbbyJr]

12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yup.  Someone asked Judah Cohen if the SSW could affect the PNW and he said the PNW is only affected by the Pacific Ocean. 

To be honest, that statement is laughable. I'm not saying he's not an expert in his field, but rather that its quite strange to suggest that the Pacific Ocean is the only factor in our climate and weather patterns.

Does he not realize that February 1989 and February 2019 likely would have played out completely different in the PNW absent of a SSW event? I'm sure there are other examples too.

Fact is that there are  so many different factors. There have of course been SSW's that have not led to a PNW arctic blast but those were likely during +ENSO years and or without a favourable QBO state.

But wait, are we sure he actually said that? Looking at this tweet, he does mention Western cold from a SSW.

 

 

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

Its been mentioned on here before but I'll mention it again. That is, it seems that many back east seem to think every SSW event is going to favour them for arctic air. 

I'll add that its a bit frustrating that its so hard to find any commentary on how the upcoming SSW event may impact the NW US. Rather, its always talk about how it could send major cold down into the NE US.

The question is whether or not there is any data to back up the idea that SSW's always favour the east?

Perhaps there are just more weather enthusiasts and commentators in the east and at least some of them have a cold bias?

I think it's just that SSW makes it much easier for arctic air to push South in general and since the East has no mountains between them and the Arctic, it will always be much easier for them to get hit. SSW still opens up possibilities here too though if we can get a block around 150 latitude.

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Its been mentioned on here before but I'll mention it again. That is, it seems that many back east seem to think every SSW event is going to favour them for arctic air. 

I'll add that its a bit frustrating that its so hard to find any commentary on how the upcoming SSW event may impact the NW US. Rather, its always talk about how it could send major cold down into the NE US.

The question is whether or not there is any data to back up the idea that SSW's always favour the east?

Perhaps there are just more weather enthusiasts and commentators in the east and at least some of them have a cold bias? To be fair, those back east could say we have a cold bias as well.

What are all of your thoughts?

Yeah that’s east coast weenie mythology. There’s wild variability from event to event, of course, but when you look at it in aggregate, a higher proportion west coast cold outbreaks feature amplified surf/disrupted TPVs than east coast events, and just as many occur during/after SSWings as those in the East.

Which could simply reflect the fact the NW US needs more of a meridional component to receive arctic air than the East.

In the end, polar blocking increases the odds of middle latitude cold anomalies almost equally at both coasts. ENSO/QBO modulates that to an extent.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4