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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

The same GFS that thought that The Dalles would see highs around 0 last January 15 until about 72 hours out when the Euro reminded it of what decade it was? Yeah, I think I'll take the over on whatever it shows CAA-wise every time. 

Seizing upon the one region of the globe that at any given moment maybe happens to not be torching as some sort of "gotcha" is some iceagenow level rationalizing. It's hardly even IMBY-ism at this point to note the fact that the vast majority of the Earth has been extremely warm for an impressively long stretch now, and even the addition of a sizable La Nina has thus far yet to disrupt that.

And if you do simply want to talk about my backyard again then it feels prudent to point out that at midnight tonight it will officially have been 30 years since our last historically impressive midwinter airmass exited stage left ☹️ Similar story for a lot of other backyards around the world, too 😟

1/15/20 was a lovely day! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Canada won’t stay persistently mild, though. The wave trains that culminate in these major blocking patterns often (temporarily) torch North America, and can give off a messy, convoluted appearance as well. Clean flips are more the exception than the rule. 

No, but it seems like it generally takes 5-7 days for a reasonable cold reservoir to really develop up north once the jet retraction process begins. Then another 5-7 days for that to start to move its weight around, let alone favorably for the PNW. So realistically we can probably still write off about a 10-14 day period after the jet stream collapses before we're possibly staring down anything significant. Assuming that happens on or around the 10th, then I think our window is maybe open by the 25th but not any earlier.  And that's assuming that a -EPO can maintain itself through that point.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Regionally significant to me meaning some combination of substantial snow and/or subfreezing highs up and down the I-5 corridor.

If this winter continues as is, then if nothing else the stage will be set for a much "blockier" 2020-21. Hard to foresee more than two years back to back of +EPO sploogefests. 

I guess my standards aren’t that high.  Regional events aren’t exactly a dime a dozen and the details of which are impossible to assess outside probably 72 hours at best.  I’ll take what I can get.  Would have been nice if they would have written something regional into the stimulus bill...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I guess my standards aren’t that high.  Regional events aren’t exactly a dime a dozen and the details of which are impossible to assess outside probably 72 hours at best.  I’ll take what I can get.  Would have been nice if they would have written something regional into the stimulus bill...

They're not, which is why it's not necessarily an instant condemnation of a winter if it lacks one.

I could probably be convinced to bump it up to sub-35 highs too if we talk about Section 230 of the Telecommunications Act.

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No, but it seems like it generally takes 5-7 days for a reasonable cold reservoir to really develop up north once the jet retraction process begins. Then another 5-7 days for that to start to move its weight around, let alone favorably for the PNW. So realistically we can probably still write off about a 10-14 day period after the jet stream collapses before we're possibly staring down anything significant. Assuming that happens on or around the 10th, then I think our window is maybe open by the 25th but not any earlier.  And that's assuming that a -EPO can maintain itself through that point.

Well, late January is the coldest part of the year in Canada. So.. ❄️

The Arctic actually reaches its seasonal minimum in middle of February. The archipelago region on can bottom out in March on occasion.

Even under your delayed timeline, that’s still ideal to maximize cold advection potential.

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I will heading out of town on the 25th, so there is that in our favor. Going to be a quick trip though, window closes by the end of the month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No, but it seems like it generally takes 5-7 days for a reasonable cold reservoir to really develop up north once the jet retraction process begins. Then another 5-7 days for that to start to move its weight around, let alone favorably for the PNW. So realistically we can probably still write off about a 10-14 day period after the jet stream collapses before we're possibly staring down anything significant. Assuming that happens on or around the 10th, then I think our window is maybe open by the 25th but not any earlier.  And that's assuming that a -EPO can maintain itself through that point.

I like the 23rd.  Overrunning event on the 29th???

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well, late January is the coldest part of the year in Canada. So.. ❄️

The Arctic actually reaches its seasonal minimum in middle of February.

Even under your delayed timeline, that’s still ideal to maximize cold advection potential.

Inversion season anxiety clock is definitely starting to tick, but sure. Our last really nice blast came in that window.

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2/3/20 was no slouch either!  

 

83888305_2747434861991371_8538082714555777024_o.jpg

83691800_2747435525324638_4934033536014352384_o.jpg

I didn’t have quite as much but it was still a nice little event. Did better on the 4th. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Classic retrogression of the block from the Barents Sea/Eurasian Arctic to Greenland/Canada on the 18z GFS under stratwarm. The Pacific sector should be favored thereafter.

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Classic retrogression of the block from the Barents Sea/Eurasian Arctic to Greenland/Canada on the 18z GFS under stratwarm. The Pacific sector should be favored thereafter.

 

Keyword

I lived through the 1996-2003 dark ages. We're used to many duds in a row.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Inversion season anxiety clock is definitely starting to tick, but sure. Our last really nice blast came in that window.

Not to add to your Wednesday doldrums, but three weeks and she starts to budge...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Inversion season anxiety clock is definitely starting to tick, but sure. Our last really nice blast came in that window.

I’m looking for something more significant out there than a fake cold block party.

If the moon is within reach and you’re behind, shoot for it. Sure it sucks when the cards don’t play out right (ie: stuck under a ridge) but given enough attempts it happens.

And 2020’s hand is loaded to the brim. If we flush the ace of spades in time, we keep the lead.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’m looking for something more significant out there than a fake cold block party.

If the moon is within reach and you’re behind, shoot for it. Sure it sucks when the cards don’t play out right (ie: stuck under a ridge) but given enough attempts it happens.

And 2020’s hand is loaded to the brim. If we flush the ace of spades in time, we keep the lead.

Gotta give you credit, Phil.  You’re certainly resilient in light of a lot of past discouragement...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not to add to your Wednesday doldrums, but three weeks and she starts to budge...

It's okay. Early February is still very much in our good graces even with the sun angles acting up a bit. Late January on the other hand has been on the naughty list since Murder She Wrote was on the air!

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m looking for something more significant out there than a fake cold block party.

If the moon is within reach and you’re behind, shoot for it. Sure it sucks when the cards don’t play out right (ie: stuck under a ridge) but given enough attempts it happens.

And 2020’s hand is loaded to the brim. If we flush the ace of spades in time, we keep the lead.

Only have another 32 hours or so though. Less where you live 😟

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Only have another 32 hours or so though. Less where you live 😟

S**t. Oh well, onto next year.

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m looking for something more significant out there than a fake cold block party.

If the moon is within reach and you’re behind, shoot for it. Sure it sucks when the cards don’t play out right (ie: stuck under a ridge) but given enough attempts it happens.

And 2020’s hand is loaded to the brim. If we flush the ace of spades in time, we keep the lead.

There is a LOT going on with this analogy and now I don't feel so confident. Are you saying we're bowling for the last strike and if we hit a homer it's coming up yahtzee? 

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3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

There is a LOT going on with this analogy and now I don't feel so confident. Are you saying we're bowling for the last strike and if we hit a homer it's coming up yahtzee? 

I was afraid it’d be interpreted like that. Haha.

If Feb 2019 was analogous to converting a 7-10 split, this is more like trying to hit the head pin. I think.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Well, late January is the coldest part of the year in Canada. So.. ❄️

The Arctic actually reaches its seasonal minimum in middle of February. The archipelago region on can bottom out in March on occasion.

Even under your delayed timeline, that’s still ideal to maximize cold advection potential.

People need to remember that Seattle's all time low temperature took place on a Jan 31st.

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Looks like the drunkle is caving to the king with regards to the stratosphere. SPV split looking increasingly likely.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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598953203_gfs_Tz10_nhem_33(1).thumb.png.412504568ba5fe88e50ae2733fb96be7.png

Also, for some eye candy...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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56 minutes ago, Phil said:

I was afraid it’d be interpreted like that. Haha.

If Feb 2019 was analogous to converting a 7-10 split, this is more like trying to hit the head pin. I think.

Feb 4 - March 10 2019 featured 10-20 degree below normal lows and highs and 4x the average snowfall.  Wouldn’t mind a repeat of that.

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7 minutes ago, westiztehbest said:

Feb 4 - March 10 2019 featured 10-20 degree below normal lows and highs and 4x the average snowfall.  Wouldn’t mind a repeat of that.

If one rain storm didn't sneak in the middle of the month it would have been my all time favorite month in Tahoe. We still managed to have the second coldest Feb and 140" of snow. My favorite is still March 2011. 

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46 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

People need to remember that Seattle's all time low temperature took place on a Jan 31st.

I thought the lowest temp in Seattle was 0 around February 1st of 1950? I’m most likely wrong. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, MossMan said:

I thought the lowest temp in Seattle was 0 around February 1st of 1950? I’m most likely wrong. 

One day off.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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