TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Remember what Ferris said about what happens in 2 weeks, when you take a lump of coal and shove it up Cameron's a**. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Ouch. Not good news on the weeklies. 1 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: It has been consistent.... in showing that pattern 30-40 days out. I think you are confusing the Euro weeklies with the extended GEFS that is frequently posted here. Weeklies only just started latching onto a blocking pattern within the last couple of bi-weekly runs. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Now we’ve moved the goalpost out to Valentine’s Day. In November it was gonna be a chip shot field goal with mid December our target, then early January, then mid January, then late January and now early to mid February. Tom Dempsey is waiting on the sidelines but I think a 250 yard field goal is even out of his range. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 If we didn't have the SSWE in progress as we do now with coming PV split to occur along with the GEFS Ext., Weeklies, and Ventrice's guidance I wouldn't be too confident, or at all. The SSWE is the main player. 00z ECWMF (January 12th) in 296 hours 42 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS... about as ugly as it gets if you want arctic air. Trended noticeably weaker with the NPAC jet D10 onwards vs 00z, though. And 00z was weaker than yesterday’s 12z. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kayla said: I think you are confusing the Euro weeklies with the extended GEFS that is frequently posted here. Weeklies only just started latching onto a blocking pattern in the last couple of bi-weekly runs. There have been several Euro weekly runs that first showed early January, then especially mid January being blocking target zones. Then the last one posted prior to this had a distinctly colder look for late January than it now shows. Looks like the sweet spot now moves back to mid February. Don't think they're worth much, honestly. The pattern will change at some point of course and I'm sure there will be a run out of 15 or so that will ultimately latch onto the correct timing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 35 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: We just gotta remember...with an ongoing SSW, the models beyond 7 days, EVEN THE EPS, are especially useless. Doesn't mean things will turn amazing within a few days, but it does mean that there is no reason to lament "nothing good showing up in the models" right now. January hasn’t started yet and it’s already cancelled. Haven’t seen this magnitude of weenie-ism since the eastern wx forums a decade ago. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, Kayla said: I think you are confusing the Euro weeklies with the extended GEFS that is frequently posted here. Weeklies only just started latching onto a blocking pattern in the last couple of bi-weekly runs. The weeklies were consistent fodder for the phantom blocking signal crowd earlier this month. Seems we’re back to interpreting elimination of the persistent Aleutian Low pattern as blocking at a similar range. Probably moot given the stratospheric upheaval anyway... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 14 minutes ago, MossMan said: Jesse is not on board! If that’s what you got out of that post then I feel sorry for you. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The weeklies were consistent fodder for the phantom blocking signal crowd earlier this month. Seems we’re back to interpreting elimination of the persistent Aleutian Low pattern as blocking at a similar range. I haven't been following along as much as most of you but long range models shouldn't be looked at as the end all. Gives a small glimpse of the possible evolution but whether or not your neighborhood Walgreens sees Arctic air and feet of snow should always be left up to the medium range models but you already know this. FWIW, today's weekly run does show a strong signal for blocking. 3 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, Jesse said: If that’s what you got out of that post then I feel sorry for you. You should feel more sorry for Justin and Andrew. 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Show me that blocking pattern within 3-5 days and I will get excited. Even then I don't want to be standing anywhere near a rug. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, Kayla said: I haven't been following along as much as most of you but long range models shouldn't be looked at as the end all. Gives a small glimpse of the possible evolution but whether or not your neighborhood Walgreens sees Arctic air and feet of snow should always be left up to the medium range models but you already know this. FWIW, today's weekly run does show a strong signal for blocking. Definitely aligns with “climo” for a decent-ish cold ENSO episode as well as my own feeble minded thoughts. These weeklies seem to just stray toward cold ENSO climo (or whatever applies at the time) with regard to anomaly centers. Not exactly shocking for a tool with relatively little skill. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Show me that blocking pattern within 3-5 days and I will get excited. Even then I don't want to be standing anywhere near a rug. So the current 16 day model is 100% correct but any model that is picking up on anything favorable is complete trash...Got it! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 28 minutes ago, Phil said: January hasn’t started yet and it’s already cancelled. Haven’t seen this magnitude of weenie-ism since the eastern wx forums a decade ago. If you lived through the 1996-2003 dark ages you'd feel the same as us. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 19 minutes ago, Kayla said: FWIW, today's weekly run does show a strong signal for blocking. That’s 40 days away! Go find a Woolly Worm and the latest copy of the Farmers Almanac and you will have better odds at that range. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, MossMan said: So the current 16 day model is 100% correct but any model that is picking up on anything favorable is complete trash...Got it! The only thing 100% correct is when it is happening real time. Where did you get that I think the current 16 day model is any good from that post? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: The only thing 100% correct is when it is happening real time. Where did you get that I think the current 16 day model is any good from that post? I’m just trying to get everyone riled up like Andrew and Justin! It’s a NYE tradition! 1 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, MossMan said: I’m just trying to get everyone riled up like Andrew and Justin! It’s a NYE tradition! Not gonna happen. Life is good, weather is just a hobby. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, Acer said: That’s 40 days away! Go find a Woolly Worm and the latest copy of the Farmers Almanac and you will have better odds at that range. If we had that thought process with science we’d still be in the stone ages. We can’t know without trying. If you can’t live with being disappointed when the models don’t end up being completely accurate 100% of the time then you should probably find a new hobby. 5 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 31, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Acer said: That’s 40 days away! Go find a Woolly Worm and the latest copy of the Farmers Almanac and you will have better odds at that range. Problem is people look at the models, which of course are not very reliable in the long range, and think that is the only way to predict long term weather, so why bother? There is more to it than that. The SSW is real and happening now, not 384hr from now. Research has shown that when it happens in Siberia, it usually leads to cold in Western North America. May miss your backyard, but it will likely be in the neighborhood. And this is a Nina year with a westerly QBO. Obviously no guarantee, but there is good reason to be optimistic beyond just looking at a long range model You and others should really educate yourself by watching Ventrice's video from yesterday. I learned a lot. And you should all remember February 2019. Just about everyone gave up on winter, and winter kicked sand in all their faces. 14 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Property manager here put up an inclement weather notice on everybody's doors. Phil must have some sort of grassroots newsletter going around. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, Kayla said: If we had that thought process with science we’d still be in the stone ages. We can’t know without trying. If you can’t live with being disappointed when the models don’t end up being completely accurate 100% of the time then you should probably find a new hobby. I can live with being disappointed with the models, I've been doing it for as long as the models have been around. I understand what you are saying but in the context of looking for something encouraging, any model at 40 days out is just a colorful map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 16 minutes ago, Kayla said: If we had that thought process with science we’d still be in the stone ages. We can’t know without trying. If you can’t live with being disappointed when the models don’t end up being completely accurate 100% of the time then you should probably find a new hobby. Agreed, but also ok to acknowledge that our long range models have nothing close to even 90% accuracy. Too much system chaos. 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 The ECMWF weeklies still show we will reach the promised land. It shows the pattern flipping to much more favorable around the 20th and then a strong signal for major cold in early February. I will say we are far from due for a major cold February again, but they do tend to come in bunches. The chances still look good for it to begin this month though. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 If this plays out as expected we will continue to be left with the question why can December and February deliver so nicely, but January can't. That having been said the final third of January is still very much in play. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 33 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Problem is people look at the models, which of course are not very reliable in the long range, and think that is the only way to predict long term weather, so why bother? There is more to it than that. The SSW is real and happening now, not 384hr from now. Research has shown that when it happens in Siberia, it usually leads to cold in Western North America. May miss your backyard, but it will likely be in the neighborhood. And this is a Nina year with a westerly QBO. Obviously no guarantee, but there is good reason to be optimistic beyond just looking at a long range model You and others should really educate yourself by watching Ventrice's video from yesterday. I learned a lot. And you should all remember February 2019. Just about everyone gave up on winter, and winter kicked sand in all their faces. Great post. At this point models are just going to give a possible indication when (not if) the better pattern will kick in. There is no guarantee we will get blasted, but I think at least a decent pattern is very likely while we are still within the good part of the winter. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 FWIW the weeklies kick the PNA negative on the same day as the Monday run. It finally stopped putting it off. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: If this plays out as expected we will continue to be left with the question why can December and February deliver so nicely, but January can't. That having been said the final third of January is still very much in play. I'd say the final half is in play. We're two weeks away from half way through the month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 So sad the epic windstorm next week disappeared 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 54 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Problem is people look at the models, which of course are not very reliable in the long range, and think that is the only way to predict long term weather, so why bother? There is more to it than that. The SSW is real and happening now, not 384hr from now. Research has shown that when it happens in Siberia, it usually leads to cold in Western North America. May miss your backyard, but it will likely be in the neighborhood. And this is a Nina year with a westerly QBO. Obviously no guarantee, but there is good reason to be optimistic beyond just looking at a long range model You and others should really educate yourself by watching Ventrice's video from yesterday. I learned a lot. And you should all remember February 2019. Just about everyone gave up on winter, and winter kicked sand in all their faces. Agreed. I have not watched the whole video yet (I'm at 51:27) but its an excellent video. Very educational and has given me more confidence in my prediction for an arctic outbreak in the PNW around mid or late January. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, Christensen87 said: So sad the epic windstorm next week disappeared Pretty much everything interesting for next week has been jettisoned. But don't worry, the wishcasting crew is out in force. It's like the Trump vs. Never Trump people. Two alternate realities! 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Let's put it this way. There is now a clear path for SLE to record their 4th straight January with an average max of 50+. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Problem is people look at the models, which of course are not very reliable in the long range, and think that is the only way to predict long term weather, so why bother? There is more to it than that. The SSW is real and happening now, not 384hr from now. Research has shown that when it happens in Siberia, it usually leads to cold in Western North America. May miss your backyard, but it will likely be in the neighborhood. And this is a Nina year with a westerly QBO. Obviously no guarantee, but there is good reason to be optimistic beyond just looking at a long range model You and others should really educate yourself by watching Ventrice's video from yesterday. I learned a lot. And you should all remember February 2019. Just about everyone gave up on winter, and winter kicked sand in all their faces. I have not had a chance to watch the video. But if an SSW is capable of overwhelming ENSO climatology the way Feb 2019 did, then are the QBO and Nina all that important (assuming the PV gets taken out)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Problem is people look at the models, which of course are not very reliable in the long range, and think that is the only way to predict long term weather, so why bother? There is more to it than that. The SSW is real and happening now, not 384hr from now. Research has shown that when it happens in Siberia, it usually leads to cold in Western North America. May miss your backyard, but it will likely be in the neighborhood. And this is a Nina year with a westerly QBO. Obviously no guarantee, but there is good reason to be optimistic beyond just looking at a long range model You and others should really educate yourself by watching Ventrice's video from yesterday. I learned a lot. And you should all remember February 2019. Just about everyone gave up on winter, and winter kicked sand in all their faces. The Ventrice video is highly recommended! Disclaimer: This is an effort to pull some of you away from the cliff’s edge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, Cloud said: The Ventrice video is highly recommended! Disclaimer: This is an effort to pull some of you away from the cliff’s edge. Alright I'll watch it. Seems pretty interesting #winterisover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Pretty much everything interesting for next week has been jettisoned. But don't worry, the wishcasting crew is out in force. It's like the Trump vs. Never Trump people. Two alternate realities! You seem to bee in a pretty bad place right now. I will admit I am kind of ragged myself though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Alright I'll watch it. Seems pretty interesting #winterisover I watched the first hour of it. It is highly educational and gives a lot of hope for some potential in the PNW with the Siberia SSW event. We just need the Pac jet to cool its jets and things should change. Models have indicated that the jet will do that. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Should end up being PDX’s warmest NYE since at least 1996 (58/45). Something to track!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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