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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The Ventrice video is highly recommended!

Disclaimer: This is an effort to pull some of you away from the cliff’s edge. 

 

 

I just don't get why some people are so negative.  Nina winters are often notorious late starters.  We have a lot of experts saying we are golden to get nailed later in the winter.  If this was a Nino I would get it, because they are usually front loaded winters.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You seem to bee in a pretty bad place right now.  I will admit I am kind of ragged myself though.

I'm actually not in a bad place at a personal level if that is what you mean. Kind of disappointed in how this thing is turning out though. I am not really worried about not getting snow. Up here it can snow until the end of April, heck it snowed on April 1st this year! 

Things seemed to be set up pretty nicely going into this winter, and it just has not panned out. Like TWL I know how disappointing this climate can be, and I guess I may have let myself get my hopes up. I really thought this winter had a chance to be one of the better ones of this Century, and now, that is pretty close to being completely off the table no matter what happens moving forward. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I watched the first hour of it. It is highly educational and gives a lot of hope for some potential in the PNW with the Siberia SSW event. We just need the Pac jet to cool its jets and things should change. Models have indicated that the jet will do that. 

The demise of the PJ is being advertised already by all of the models.  Sometimes I think this forum is harder to deal with than our climate.  That last part wasn't in response to you BTW.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm actually not in a bad place at a personal level if that is what you mean. Kind of disappointed in how this thing is turning out though. I am not really worried about not getting snow. Up here it can snow until the end of April, heck it snowed on April 1st this year! 

Things seemed to be set up pretty nicely going into this winter, and it just has not panned out. Like TWL I know how disappointing this climate can be, and I guess I may have let myself get my hopes up. I really thought this winter had a chance to be one of the better ones of this Century, and now, that is pretty close to being completely off the table no matter what happens moving forward. 

It's Dec 31.....

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's Dec 31.....

Sure thing, and we know we are pretty much going to make it through mid-January with nothing. I mean sure March 1951 could happen, and it may. The difference between me and you is, I am saying geez, this looks bleak, but you never know. You are acting like we are locked into getting something good, with literally no evidence. If anything today's EURO weeklies added fuel to the fire of those who are saying we are still a long way off from anything good. You are telling me, if we once again fail in January, that you will not be disappointed? We have scored multiple times in February over the past decade, we may very well again. For once it would be nice to score in the dead of winter, or at least score a nice arctic blast in our sweet spot. 

For a long time, I believed it was just random chance we had not scored a major arctic blast in January, one of these years it would happen. But time marches on and now we are 7 years removed from our last regional blast. At some point that has to mean something? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just don't get why some people are so negative.  Nina winters are often notorious late starters.  We have a lot of experts saying we are golden to get nailed later in the winter.  If this was a Nino I would get it, because they are usually front loaded winters.

Gotta stop confusing negativity with realism. Just because people aren't jumping aboard what you or someone on the East Coast is saying, doesn't mean we're being negative. We know how the climate works around here. Realistically, it's very difficult for things to pan out around here, that's just a fact.

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3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Gotta stop confusing negativity with realism. Just because people aren't jumping aboard what you or someone on the East Coast is saying, doesn't mean we're being negative. We know how the climate works around here. Realistically, it's very difficult for things to pan out around here, that's just a fact.

Maybe if we all just believe then it will happen?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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59 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I have not had a chance to watch the video. But if an SSW is capable of overwhelming ENSO climatology the way Feb 2019 did, then are the QBO and Nina all that important (assuming the PV gets taken out)?

ENSO/QBO are always important since they assist in setting the low frequency pattern through which they may subsequently evolve and trigger SSW events.

The truth is no 2 ENSO events are alike, and it comes down to a *lot* more than SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region. The structure of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, meridional modes, annular modes, QBO/Brewer Dobson circulation, Indian Ocean Dipole/secondary standing waves, z-cell/ITCZ structures, etc, all work to modulate global wave trains.

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50 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You seem to bee in a pretty bad place right now.  I will admit I am kind of ragged myself though.

I said that yesterday.

Everything will be ok Andrew. We love u. 🍻

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To make myself even more depressed I am looking over that Ft. Vancouver dataset Justin linked the other day. 

  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF weeklies still show we will reach the promised land.  It shows the pattern flipping to much more favorable around the 20th and then a strong signal for major cold in early February.  I will say we are far from due for a major cold February again, but they do tend to come in bunches.  The chances still look good for it to begin this month though.

Then it will be the 2nd week of Feb then it will be the 1st week of March which of course we will have some low foot hills now down to just above my house! :)  We will get a half inch of snow in early March once or twice. I can bet on that. 

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18 minutes ago, iFred said:

With winter canceled, there will only be one thread covering January through April as the weather will effectively be same through out.

I have thought about that as well.

Given that (at some point) we're actually likely to flip to troughing, I think a six month quasi-spring/winter hybrid could be in order. Basically 45-60 degree rain until mid May. 

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1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

I have not had a chance to watch the video. But if an SSW is capable of overwhelming ENSO climatology the way Feb 2019 did, then are the QBO and Nina all that important (assuming the PV gets taken out)?

I think all these things are factors with different levels of influence, but it's never just one thing that determines the outcome.

There have been SSWs that failed to deliver any cold air to the West, during all kinds of ENSO/QBO. And there have been winters that defied ENSO climo, without any SSW assistance.

A forum for the end of the world.

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On 12/29/2020 at 7:08 PM, Front Ranger said:

Just for fun and to provide a wee bit of comfort for those fearing climate change has stolen winter forever...

5 Climate Predictions for 2020 That Didn't Pan Out

1. In 1987, James Hansen predicted that by 2020, global temperatures would rise by 3C. Instead, they've risen by .5C or less.

2. In 2006, Al Gore predicted that the snows of Kilimanjaro would disappear by 2020. They have not.

3. In 1986, the EPA predicted 2 feet of sea level rise for Florida by 2020. In reality, there has been less than 4".

4. In 2013, some predicted that Arctic sea ice would completely melt out by 2020. They were wrong by 3.9 million square miles.

5. In 2009, a government ecologist predicted that the glaciers in Glacier National Park would be gone by 2020. The park even put up signs with the prediction...which they have since removed.

They were basing their claims on the most extreme version of the models for media hysteria which it worked and fooled a bunch of youngones that were just coming to puberty at the time all this crap happened. They know think they hold the keys and want us to give up ours so we can have visitor passes instead.

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All kidding aside, the extended GFS really still is about as bleak as I've ever seen for North American cold at this point. A literally non-stop Aleutian Low and +EPO with a furnace extending all the way up to the pole. This winter could break a lot of records, might as well be realistic about it. 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I have thought about that as well.

Given that (at some point) we're actually likely to flip to troughing, I think a six month quasi-spring/winter hybrid could be in order. Basically 45-60 degree rain until mid May. 

Cold spring seems like a given at this point.  Might be a night or two of legitimate coast range snow shadow anxiety out there somewhere.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

All kidding aside, the extended GFS really still is about as bleak as I've ever seen for North American cold at this point. A literally non-stop Aleutian Low and +EPO with a furnace extending all the way up to the pole. This winter could break a lot of records, might as well be realistic about it. 

Do you think this resembles more of an El Nino then a La Nina like the atmosphere is stuck in a confused state? Seriously.

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3 minutes ago, Link said:

They were basing their claims on the most extreme version of the models for media hysteria which it worked and fooled a bunch of youngones that were just coming to puberty at the time all this crap happened. They know think they hold the keys and want us to give up ours so we can have visitor passes instead.

Still less wrong than the useful idiots denying it even exists or that humans have any role in it.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Cold spring seems like a given at this point.  Might be a night or two of legitimate coast range snow shadow anxiety out there somewhere.

Ever since Fukushima our climate has been 'off' ever since especially with delayed seasons being the new norm.

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

All kidding aside, the extended GFS really still is about as bleak as I've ever seen for North American cold at this point. A literally non-stop Aleutian Low and +EPO with a furnace extending all the way up to the pole. This winter could break a lot of records, might as well be realistic about it. 

You shouldn't put kidding aside when talking about the long range GFS.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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12 minutes ago, Link said:

Do you think this resembles more of an El Nino then a La Nina like the atmosphere is stuck in a confused state? Seriously.

A bit, although the southern stream energy has been pretty sporadic and the PNA is trending more neutral ish.

Ironically, the "Godzilla Nino" of 2015-16 was getting quite nippy around now!

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I just don't get why some people are so negative.  Nina winters are often notorious late starters.  We have a lot of experts saying we are golden to get nailed later in the winter.  If this was a Nino I would get it, because they are usually front loaded winters.

I know that and I wasn’t expecting an Arctic event or anything in December, but I wasn’t expecting the background state to be this crappy, either - especially considering westerly QBO. December is running +3.1 at PDX with today’s torch likely increasing that anomaly. Far cry from anything in 16-17. 

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My boys skied at Mt. Baker today... because they had been buried up there the last two days and because I told them that the ECMWF did not show much precip up there today.    Well it drizzled all day on them while skiing and visibility was horrible.    They said it was just miserable.  Typical skiing experience in the WA Cascades!    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This is a portion if an article I found on Daily Kos regarding the current state of the "polar Vortex" 

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An article I found in Daily Kos 

 

One of the paradoxes of climate change is that reduction of sea ice on the European side of the Arctic basin leads to increased Siberian snowfall in the fall months and possibly colder than normal winter temperatures in central and eastern Siberia. There was an old (failed) hypothesis about glacial cycles that an ice free Arctic led to increased snowfall in Eurasia and north America which then led to a new glacial cycle. This hypothesis failed for multiple reasons, the most interesting being that open water in the European Arctic seas and greater than normal Siberian snow extent destabilizes the polar vortex. A strong polar vortex tends to keep cold air “locked up” in the Arctic. A sudden weakening of the vortex lets the cold air out of the Arctic. This winter, mainly because of the La Niña weather pattern caused by cold water in the equatorial western and central Pacific oceans, the sudden weakening of the polar vortex has driven the Arctic air out of Siberia and across the northwestern Pacific ocean behind an extreme cold front following a storm that “bombed” in the Aleutians.

Over the next month the west coast of North America will likely be hit by storm after storm as the intensified jet stream over the north Pacific brings on an extremely active weather pattern. California and Oregon will get much needed rains. Further north, unwelcome storm damage may happen because storms will likely be more intense than normal. Water temperatures in the north Pacific average well above normal. The enhanced outflow of Siberian air over the warmer than normal water will lead to stronger than normal storms.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

That would nice... the ECMWF has been toying with that idea for several runs now.

12z had a quick dump of wet snow Saturday night in the North Sound as well.

925mb temps stay above freezing on the WRF though.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw (2).png

  • Snow 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My boys skied at Mt. Baker today... because they had been buried up there the last two days and because I told them that the ECMWF did not show much precip up there today.    Well it drizzled all day on them while skiing and visibility was horrible.    They said it was just miserable.  Typical skiing experience in the WA Cascades!    

Yeah it was a very ugly day here.  Drizzle almost all day with very low clouds and temps in the mid 40’s.  A fitting end to a monstrously ugly year in many ways.

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