MossMan Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 12z had a quick dump of wet snow Saturday night in the North Sound as well. 925mb temps stay above freezing on the WRF though. Everyone has been so preoccupied with cancelling winter that the active weather coming up has been put on the back burner. Wind on Saturday and snow on Sunday...Who cares. 2 1 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Front Ranger said: I think all these things are factors with different levels of influence, but it's never just one thing that determines the outcome. There have been SSWs that failed to deliver any cold air to the West, during all kinds of ENSO/QBO. And there have been winters that defied ENSO climo, without any SSW assistance. Which ones? I think we should do away with the idea of “ENSO climo” Because stuff like that varies over decades and centuries. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 31 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Puget sound is due... 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Which ones? I think we should do away with the idea of “ENSO climo” Because these things vary over decades and centuries. It’s still probably the best indicator we have for long lead stuff. Very few of our warm or cold episodes have truly defied expectations over the last few decades. 2019 might be the only one and maybe 1995, at least for a few days. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 What does that Hour 69 map show for Oregon?? Hopefully it Fukks us on both ends huh? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said: What does that Hour 69 map show for Oregon?? Hopefully it Fukks us on both ends huh? Took me a second but I finally remembered what your picture is from. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Took me a second but I finally remembered what your picture is from. A very underrated film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said: I DECLARE A FORUM FIGHT OysterPrintout has been eliminated. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 New all-time record low barometric pressure for the North Pacific Ocean! Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 452 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The new North Pacific low pressure record has been set by the monster of a storm over the Western Aleutians. OPC charts analyzed the central pressure down to 921 mb this morning as the system was approaching Shemya. As the center continues to wrap (and wrap) upon itself, the pressure dropped to a record-breaking 924.8 mb at Eareckson Air Station on Shemya at 21:59Z/12:59pm AKST time/11:59am local time (HST). This system had all of the right ingredients to deepen so dramatically. An incredible 200 kt jet is driving across the North Pacific and the system developed in the favored left exit region. Arctic air is dumping in on the western flank of the low while warm air and sea surface temperatures (40F) are present to its east. At the surface, the strongest winds observed with also at Shemya with 83 mph last night just before 11pm local time. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: New all-time record low barometric pressure for the North Pacific Ocean! Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 452 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The new North Pacific low pressure record has been set by the monster of a storm over the Western Aleutians. OPC charts analyzed the central pressure down to 921 mb this morning as the system was approaching Shemya. As the center continues to wrap (and wrap) upon itself, the pressure dropped to a record-breaking 924.8 mb at Eareckson Air Station on Shemya at 21:59Z/12:59pm AKST time/11:59am local time (HST). This system had all of the right ingredients to deepen so dramatically. An incredible 200 kt jet is driving across the North Pacific and the system developed in the favored left exit region. Arctic air is dumping in on the western flank of the low while warm air and sea surface temperatures (40F) are present to its east. At the surface, the strongest winds observed with also at Shemya with 83 mph last night just before 11pm local time. I was looking at the weather maps for that area... there is crap load of snow that will be falling over the Pacific Ocean over the next 10 days per the ECMWF! 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: New all-time record low barometric pressure for the North Pacific Ocean! Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 452 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The new North Pacific low pressure record has been set by the monster of a storm over the Western Aleutians. OPC charts analyzed the central pressure down to 921 mb this morning as the system was approaching Shemya. As the center continues to wrap (and wrap) upon itself, the pressure dropped to a record-breaking 924.8 mb at Eareckson Air Station on Shemya at 21:59Z/12:59pm AKST time/11:59am local time (HST). This system had all of the right ingredients to deepen so dramatically. An incredible 200 kt jet is driving across the North Pacific and the system developed in the favored left exit region. Arctic air is dumping in on the western flank of the low while warm air and sea surface temperatures (40F) are present to its east. At the surface, the strongest winds observed with also at Shemya with 83 mph last night just before 11pm local time. That 83 mph was a gust. Highest sustained wind I see at that station in the past 24 hours is 64 mph. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=arh&sid=PASY&num=48 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I was looking at the weather maps for that area... there is crap load of snow that will be falling over the Pacific Ocean per the ECMWF! When it's not rain or mixed precip (look at the link I just posted in response to DJ Droppin). Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I was looking at the weather maps for that area... there is crap load of snow that will be falling over the Pacific Ocean over the next 10 days per the ECMWF! Lots of snow in the Western Pacific at the same latitude as San Fransisco. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 So all that snow will cool the Pacific....sweet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Seattle WA 140 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020 WAZ001-503-504-506-507-509>517-555-556-558-559-567>569-012145- San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Southwest Interior- Western Skagit County-Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area- Admiralty Inlet Area-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area- Olympics-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca- Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-North Coast-Central Coast- East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity- Bremerton and Vicinity-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties- Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties- Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties- 140 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON... Rainfall of 3 to 10 inches over much of the lowlands during the past 18 days has increased soil moisture to high levels across western Washington. Heavy rainfall of 1 to 8 inches is expected Friday through Sunday. This amount of rain will put extra pressure on soil instability, leading to an increased threat of landslides. Areas above 5000 feet in elevation will see some of the precipitation as snow and not be as affected. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Seattle WA 346 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020 WAZ001-503-506-510-516-517-011300- /O.NEW.KSEW.WI.Y.0027.210101T1800Z-210102T0300Z/ San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County- Admiralty Inlet Area-North Coast-Central Coast- Including the cities of Friday Harbor, Bellingham, Mount Vernon, Anacortes, Sedro-Woolley, Burlington, Port Townsend, Beaver, Clearwater, Forks, La Push, Neah Bay, Ozette, Queets, Aberdeen, and Hoquiam 346 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...San Juan County, Western Whatcom County, Western Skagit County, Admiralty Inlet Area, North Coast and Central Coast. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM PST Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around and damage unsecured objects, such as tents. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Seattle WA 115 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...THREAT OF FLOODING FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON... A wet pattern is continue over western Washington well into next week, with the new year coming in as the old year goes out. The immediate concern is a storm coming in Friday followed by a much bigger storm Saturday into Sunday. Next week will continue stormy as well. Impacts for Friday`s system could include urban and small stream flooding, renewed flooding on the Skokomish River, and some threat of landslides where any heavy downpours hit. For the weekend system, there is the potential for more widespread river flooding, urban and small stream flooding, and increased threat for landslides. Forecast precipitation amounts from early Friday morning through midday Sunday are 1 to 3 inches in the lowlands, 3 to 6 inches in the Cascades, and 4 to 8 inches in the Olympics. The snow levels won`t be super high and could be a limiting factor for storm runoff and flooding, with snow levels rising modestly to 5000 to 7000 feet with short periods of time where they lower to 3000 to 4000 feet. Soil moisture in Western Washington is quite high, at or above antecedent wetness indexes, such that the additional rain could cause some landslides. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 The last GFS run of 2020. I'm almost sentimental and emotional about it. Not really. I wouldn't expect anything dynamic or exciting Day 1-10, but ya never know. Most likely it's going to be awhile around Mid-January. C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 48F and cloudy on this fallspring evening. One day maybe we will move to a climate that experiences what they call...winter. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 One would think that record setting 921mb low in the Bering Sea could shake up the models significantly it its own right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Happy new year right now in the Atlantic. Any analogs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Up to .74” on the day. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 Both views, and loops. Why? Because I like to party. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Yeah, I got a new tune in composition entitled "The Thrill." And it goes somethin' like this: "I stand on the hill, not for a thrill, but for the breath of a fresh kill. Never mind the man who contemplates doin' away with license plates. He stands alone, anyhow, bakin' the cookies of discontent by the heat of the laundromat vent. Leavin' his soul!" Then like in poetry I go dot-dot-dot, you know, kinda off center, then I drop down and then I go: "Leavin' his soul! And partin' the waters of the medulla oblongata of - -brrrrrr! - -mankind!" That was a D**n good song, wasn't it Doyle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Day 2 Oh and that's the past 8 runs. 4 runs is for wimps. I'm not a wimp. I like to party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 No split flow hell at least, Rob. Good mountain snowpack building, and many opportunities for surprises, as soon as a few days out really. I like it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 24 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: The last GFS run of 2020. I'm almost sentimental and emotional about it. Not really. I wouldn't expect anything dynamic or exciting Day 1-10, but ya never know. Most likely it's going to be awhile around Mid-January. C'MON!!!! I'm totally expecting it to sh*t on us in typical 2020 fashion. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 By the way, posting the images, then selecting the previous 8 runs, making a gif, loading the gif, for both views, and to do this here and also in my PDX WX Analysis FB group, it's a bit exhausting almost. I did it as a 'treat' or something I guess to Fred and everyone here in appreciation that we even have this forum. 9 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 9 hours ago, MossMan said: I could see Wild Bill heading out there to check it out! Wild Bill's main deckhand just died. He was an assshole, but that's still a huge bummer. Possibly a drug overdose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, dolt said: Wild Bill's main deckhand just died. He was an assshole, but that's still a huge bummer. Possibly a drug overdose. Yeah my co-worker was good friends with him, sad deal. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 The past few GFS runs have trended really mild for next week. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Day 7 Last day posting past 8 run loops Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The past few GFS runs have trended really mild for next week. Yup, the wishcasting is getting unfortunate. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The past few GFS runs have trended really mild for next week. Yeah 2 Days ago we were looking at big time La Nina runs, but well that seems to be petering out, at least with the GFS Op. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2021 Report Share Posted January 1, 2021 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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