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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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13 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z had a quick dump of wet snow Saturday night in the North Sound as well.

925mb temps stay above freezing on the WRF though.

 

sn10_acc.us_nw (2).png

Everyone has been so preoccupied with cancelling winter that the active weather coming up has been put on the back burner. Wind on Saturday and snow on Sunday...Who cares. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I think all these things are factors with different levels of influence, but it's never just one thing that determines the outcome.

There have been SSWs that failed to deliver any cold air to the West, during all kinds of ENSO/QBO. And there have been winters that defied ENSO climo, without any SSW assistance.

Which ones?

I think we should do away with the idea of “ENSO climo” Because stuff like that varies over decades and centuries.  

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Which ones?

I think we should do away with the idea of “ENSO climo” Because these things vary over decades and centuries.  

It’s still probably the best indicator we have for long lead stuff.  Very few of our warm or cold episodes have truly defied expectations over the last few decades. 2019 might be the only one and maybe 1995, at least for a few days.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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New all-time record low barometric pressure for the North Pacific Ocean!
 
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The new North Pacific low pressure record has been set by the monster of a storm over the Western Aleutians. OPC charts analyzed the central pressure down to 921 mb this morning as the system was approaching Shemya. As the center continues to wrap (and wrap) upon itself, the pressure dropped to a record-breaking 924.8 mb at Eareckson Air Station on Shemya at 21:59Z/12:59pm AKST time/11:59am local time (HST). This system had all of the right ingredients to deepen so dramatically. An incredible 200 kt jet is driving across the North Pacific and the system developed in the favored left exit region. Arctic air is dumping in on the western flank of the low while warm air and sea surface temperatures (40F) are present to its east. At the surface, the strongest winds observed with also at Shemya with 83 mph last night just before 11pm local time.
 
Image may contain: text that says 'PACIFIC SURFACE ANALYSIS ISSUED: 53 DEC 2028 VALID: 00 UTC 31 DEC FCSTR: HUFFMAN SOURCES: OPC NHC WPC HFO FORECAST TRACKS ARE FOR VALID TIME HOURS HICHEST CONDITIONS FROM VALID TIME THROUGH HOURS. 12 987 20 DVLPG STORM HVY FRZG SPRAY 60N STORM DSIPT 31 971 400 HVY SPRAY 40 x 44 921 64 50x 60 52 ABSORBED 68 12 FORCE 72 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 04 40N'
 
 
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15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
New all-time record low barometric pressure for the North Pacific Ocean!
 
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The new North Pacific low pressure record has been set by the monster of a storm over the Western Aleutians. OPC charts analyzed the central pressure down to 921 mb this morning as the system was approaching Shemya. As the center continues to wrap (and wrap) upon itself, the pressure dropped to a record-breaking 924.8 mb at Eareckson Air Station on Shemya at 21:59Z/12:59pm AKST time/11:59am local time (HST). This system had all of the right ingredients to deepen so dramatically. An incredible 200 kt jet is driving across the North Pacific and the system developed in the favored left exit region. Arctic air is dumping in on the western flank of the low while warm air and sea surface temperatures (40F) are present to its east. At the surface, the strongest winds observed with also at Shemya with 83 mph last night just before 11pm local time.
 
Image may contain: text that says 'PACIFIC SURFACE ANALYSIS ISSUED: 53 DEC 2028 VALID: 00 UTC 31 DEC FCSTR: HUFFMAN SOURCES: OPC NHC WPC HFO FORECAST TRACKS ARE FOR VALID TIME HOURS HICHEST CONDITIONS FROM VALID TIME THROUGH HOURS. 12 987 20 DVLPG STORM HVY FRZG SPRAY 60N STORM DSIPT 31 971 400 HVY SPRAY 40 x 44 921 64 50x 60 52 ABSORBED 68 12 FORCE 72 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 04 40N'
 
 

I was looking at the weather maps for that area... there is crap load of snow that will be falling over the Pacific Ocean over the next 10 days per the ECMWF!

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-npac_wide-total_snow_10to1-0280000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
New all-time record low barometric pressure for the North Pacific Ocean!
 
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Thu Dec 31 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The new North Pacific low pressure record has been set by the monster of a storm over the Western Aleutians. OPC charts analyzed the central pressure down to 921 mb this morning as the system was approaching Shemya. As the center continues to wrap (and wrap) upon itself, the pressure dropped to a record-breaking 924.8 mb at Eareckson Air Station on Shemya at 21:59Z/12:59pm AKST time/11:59am local time (HST). This system had all of the right ingredients to deepen so dramatically. An incredible 200 kt jet is driving across the North Pacific and the system developed in the favored left exit region. Arctic air is dumping in on the western flank of the low while warm air and sea surface temperatures (40F) are present to its east. At the surface, the strongest winds observed with also at Shemya with 83 mph last night just before 11pm local time.
 
Image may contain: text that says 'PACIFIC SURFACE ANALYSIS ISSUED: 53 DEC 2028 VALID: 00 UTC 31 DEC FCSTR: HUFFMAN SOURCES: OPC NHC WPC HFO FORECAST TRACKS ARE FOR VALID TIME HOURS HICHEST CONDITIONS FROM VALID TIME THROUGH HOURS. 12 987 20 DVLPG STORM HVY FRZG SPRAY 60N STORM DSIPT 31 971 400 HVY SPRAY 40 x 44 921 64 50x 60 52 ABSORBED 68 12 FORCE 72 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 04 40N'
 
 

That 83 mph was a gust. Highest sustained wind I see at that station in the past 24 hours is 64 mph.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=arh&sid=PASY&num=48

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was looking at the weather maps for that area... there is crap load of snow that will be falling over the Pacific Ocean per the ECMWF!

 

ecmwf-deterministic-npac_wide-total_snow_10to1_cm-0280000.png

When it's not rain or mixed precip (look at the link I just posted in response to DJ Droppin).

It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was looking at the weather maps for that area... there is crap load of snow that will be falling over the Pacific Ocean over the next 10 days per the ECMWF!

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-npac_wide-total_snow_10to1-0280000.png

Lots of snow in the Western Pacific at the same latitude as San Fransisco.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
140 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020

WAZ001-503-504-506-507-509>517-555-556-558-559-567>569-012145-
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Southwest Interior-
Western Skagit County-Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-
Admiralty Inlet Area-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
Olympics-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-
Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-North Coast-Central Coast-
East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-
Bremerton and Vicinity-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-
Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-
140 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED
THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...

Rainfall of 3 to 10 inches over much of the lowlands during the past
18 days has increased soil moisture to high levels across western
Washington. Heavy rainfall of 1 to 8 inches is expected Friday
through Sunday. This amount of rain will put extra pressure on soil
instability, leading to an increased threat of landslides.

Areas above 5000 feet in elevation will see some of the precipitation
as snow and not be as affected.

 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
346 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020

WAZ001-503-506-510-516-517-011300-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WI.Y.0027.210101T1800Z-210102T0300Z/
San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-
Admiralty Inlet Area-North Coast-Central Coast-
Including the cities of Friday Harbor, Bellingham, Mount Vernon,
Anacortes, Sedro-Woolley, Burlington, Port Townsend, Beaver,
Clearwater, Forks, La Push, Neah Bay, Ozette, Queets, Aberdeen,
and Hoquiam
346 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...San Juan County, Western Whatcom County, Western
  Skagit County, Admiralty Inlet Area, North Coast and Central
  Coast.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around and damage unsecured
  objects, such as tents. Tree limbs could be blown down and a
  few power outages may result.

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Seattle WA
115 PM PST Thu Dec 31 2020

  ...THREAT OF FLOODING FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF
  WESTERN WASHINGTON...

A wet pattern is continue over western Washington well into next
week, with the new year coming in as the old year goes out. The
immediate concern is a storm coming in Friday followed by a much
bigger storm Saturday into Sunday. Next week will continue stormy as
well.  Impacts for Friday`s system could include urban and small
stream flooding, renewed flooding on the Skokomish River, and some
threat of landslides where any heavy downpours hit. For the weekend
system, there is the potential for more widespread river flooding,
urban and small stream flooding, and increased threat for landslides.

Forecast precipitation amounts from early Friday morning through
midday Sunday are 1 to 3 inches in the lowlands, 3 to 6 inches in
the Cascades, and 4 to 8 inches in the Olympics. The snow levels
won`t be super high and could be a limiting factor for storm runoff
and flooding, with snow levels rising modestly to 5000 to 7000 feet
with short periods of time where they lower to 3000 to 4000 feet.
Soil moisture in Western Washington is quite high, at or above
antecedent wetness indexes, such that the additional rain could
cause some landslides.

 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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48F and cloudy on this fallspring evening. One day maybe we will move to a climate that experiences what they call...winter.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Yeah, I got a new tune in composition entitled "The Thrill." And it goes somethin' like this: "I stand on the hill, not for a thrill, but for the breath of a fresh kill. Never mind the man who contemplates doin' away with license plates. He stands alone, anyhow, bakin' the cookies of discontent by the heat of the laundromat vent. Leavin' his soul!" Then like in poetry I go dot-dot-dot, you know, kinda off center, then I drop down and then I go: "Leavin' his soul! And partin' the waters of the medulla oblongata of - -brrrrrr! - -mankind!" That was a D**n good song, wasn't it Doyle?

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24 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The last GFS run of 2020. I'm almost sentimental and emotional about it. Not really. I wouldn't expect anything dynamic or exciting Day 1-10, but ya never know. Most likely it's going to be awhile around Mid-January. C'MON!!!!

I'm totally expecting it to sh*t on us in typical 2020 fashion. 

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3 minutes ago, dolt said:

Wild Bill's main deckhand just died. ☹️ He was an assshole, but that's still a huge bummer. Possibly a drug overdose.

Yeah my co-worker was good friends with him, sad deal. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The past few GFS runs have trended really mild for next week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The past few GFS runs have trended really mild for next week. 

Yup, the wishcasting is getting unfortunate.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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