December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Well that’s my name! 

Unfortunately, it is NOT particularly nipply out right now.

[Meatyorologist]

00z Euro running. May god help us all.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Unfortunately, it is NOT particularly nipply out right now.

No sh*t 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z Euro running. May god help us all.

Better catch it. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Unfortunately, it is NOT particularly nipply out right now.

I had a proud parent moment tonight...My 6yr old was reciting all of those lines at dinner tonight! 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z Euro running. May god help us all.

[Meatyorologist]

We are a clever bunch, aren't we?

[GeorgeWx]

32 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Long range models continue to be a hideous mess if you're wanting appreciable cold anywhere in the lower 48 anytime soon. 

Pattern continues to be way too progressive. 

[TacomaWaWx]

44/39 0.24” today. Up to 1.11” for December. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Heat pump! 

That's most likely what we will do, it will all depend on our house set up.  Our previous house got full sun from late monning to sunset in the summer and would get up to the mid-80's inside, and it was impossible to get any sort of breeze in the evenings.  Probably spring for an AC/Heat Pump in that scenario. 

Our current house is in at least partial shade most of the afternoon (gets full sun up until about 12-1pm).  It is also up against a greenbelt, and you can feel the cool air pouring out in the evenings... It feels so nice...Probably just do a heat pump if we get that type of set up.  Our current house really only gets bad when its smoky, or that last day of a heatwave when it usually stays around 66-70 through the night.

[GeorgeWx]

next weekend looks wet

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, GeorgeWx said:

next weekend looks wet

Looks pretty warm also

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[bainbridgekid]

Next weekend's gotten way warmer on the models the last couple days. I reserved the day at Stevens for Sunday a couple days ago when it looked like they'd get a ton of snow this week and might have good powder but now Saturday is looking potentially very wet up there. Bummer.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 9-16 GIF 500mb Height Anomaly

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Nope!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Jesse]

54 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Next weekend's gotten way warmer on the models the last couple days. I reserved the day at Stevens for Sunday a couple days ago when it looked like they'd get a ton of snow this week and might have good powder but now Saturday is looking potentially very wet up there. Bummer.

If it ends up anything like this weekend it could flip back. This weekend looked like it would be mild with heavy rain and very high snow levels seven days ago.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Phil]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GEFS control model from last night showed a massive, sprawling arctic block in January.

Huge SSW. If only that were 3 days out instead of 30.

[Gradient Keeper]

40 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEFS Day 9-16 GIF 500mb Height Anomaly

 

Well the GFS Ensembles continue to improve I assume due to the handling of the SSW which seems to be quite bullish about occurring. We have that at least.

[Meatyorologist]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Huge SSW. If only that were 3 days out instead of 30.

How good do you think the chances are for a SSW event occurring sometime in the next month or so? Not asking about that specific pattern, just wondering about stratospheric shenanigans.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS 16 Day GIF 10mb Temp/Height
Not my area of expertise, but it looks like 2 separate SSW's. The first begins at just Day 4 to 4.5. Interesting. Timing has certainly moved ahead for this. The GFS has been very consistent and insistent on this.

 

[Phil]

It’s a favorable pattern for a SSW. Just need to time new wave attacks properly w/ respect to the in-situ vacillation cycle to split the motherfücker. All about fluid inertia.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEFS 16 Day GIF 10mb Temp/Height
Not my area of expertise, but it looks like 2 separate SSW's. The first begins at just Day 4 to 4.5. Interesting. Timing has certainly moved ahead for this. The GFS has been very consistent and insistent on this.

 

The big butthead basically just gets nudged.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Thing basically just gets nudged.

Right, but whatever the GFS is picking up on is why the ensembles are improving with a stronger and more amplified Gulf of Alaska block.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Thing basically just gets nudged.

True. But the wave-1 axis is improving w/ more Eurasian warming. Which is also (statistically) the most favorable wave-1/wave-2 transition structure to precede cold outbreaks in the West.

Whether it verifies or not is another story.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Right, but whatever the GFS is picking up on is why the ensembles are improving with a stronger and more amplified Gulf of Alaska block.

A higher-heights signature on a long range ensemble mean doesn’t inherently equate to a blocking episode. As has recently been the case, the theme is a progressive one and continues to be well represented in just about every long range tool.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Models later this week are about to do an about-face pulling off a Christmas miracle(or New Year Eve more likely). Patience. SSW 4 LIFE! Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

️🌬️🌬

[Link]

38 minutes ago, Phil said:

True. But the wave-1 axis is improving w/ more Eurasian warming. Which is also (statistically) the most favorable wave-1/wave-2 transition structure to precede cold outbreaks in the West.

Whether it verifies or not is another story.

What kind of surfboard do I need and is wave 1 or 2 better to catch?Catch A Wave (Stereo/Remastered 2001) - YouTube which is the tune to  Sidewalk Surfin' (Remastered 1990/Stereo Remix) - YouTube

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS, 00z GEFS

Day 6-10 GIF. I do not have access to the full EPS 15 Day run. It appears a ridge and block evolves setting up just offshore and Day 8-10 you can see the energy is shunting southward. This appears quite similar to the GEFS which at Day 10+ builds a Gulf of Alaska ridge/block. Again this is speculation more than anything, but I think it's promising.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Init.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 1

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 2

Also, the CFS is drunk again.