December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 10

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS 10 Day Precip/Snowfall

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 11

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 12

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 13

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 14

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 15

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 16

[Meatyorologist]

Not bad.

[El_Nina]

Mild morning with a few sprinkles earlier, nothing measurable though. 41 currently. 

[Jesse]

What an awful 06z run.

[Jesse]

Mild morning with rain at times here. Low of 41, 44 currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

What an awful 06z run.

But it had blocking!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't worry all. The CFS is back to a cold February and March. Figures. 

[Tyler Mode]

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Mild morning with rain at times here. Low of 41, 44 currently.

Ya this is lame.  Waking up to morning temps 40+ is stupid haha.

[Cloud]

06z says nope, keep trying for Dec.

Let's try Jan. 

[El_Nina]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

06z says nope, keep trying for Dec.

Let's try Jan. 

Cutting back on rain totals here the past few runs. 12z 90 hours out showed about an inch, 18z had around 1.2" but the 06z has it down to 12z levels again. 

[jakerepp]

Trying to gauge how strong the storm about to wallop the East coast is. 

How accurate this will be, who know, but looks like my aunt and uncle in Lancaster, PA are going to be buried!

[Gradient Keeper]

Very nice improvements with the 00z EPS and the pattern progression seemed to follow the vastly improved Canadian ensembles. The GFS isn't there yet, which shouldn't be a surprised to anyone. C'MON!!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Very nice improvements with the 00z EPS and the pattern progression seemed to follow the vastly improved Canadian ensembles. The GFS isn't there yet, which shouldn't be a surprised to anyone. C'MON!!!!

I don't see anything too interesting on the 00Z EPS... I expected more in this moderate Nina, low solar winter.    Maybe January.    

 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't see anything too interesting on the 00Z EPS showing a nice pattern around New Year's Eve into January... I expected more in this moderate Nina, low solar winter.    Maybe January.    

 

Brian posted the EPS last night (500mb) really nice improvements. Try posting the 500mb HA and not just the 850mb/streamlines/temp anomaly.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Brian posted the EPS last night (500mb) really nice improvements. Try posting the 500mb HA and not just the 850mb/streamlines/temp anomaly.

I guess the end of the run looks OK at the 500mb level... but I need to see a strong cold signal at the 850mb level.    That is almost always the precursor to something meaningful.  

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[MossMan]

I remember back in the day when the 6 & 18z’s would almost always give us eye candy to brighter the mood for a few hours. Looks like that doesn’t even happen anymore. I still say we need to bring back the MRF technology that said screw you mountain ranges, I’m going to flow Arctic air right into western Washington by day 10 every single run!! ️ 

Anyhow...Currently very light drizzle and 40 degrees. 
.04” so far on the day. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I may be one of the few people here who thinks it might snow (in the lowlands) this month. Note I said might, not will. Basically, I don't think the models can be trusted very much more than a week out, and the implications of that mistrust cut both ways.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 May want to keep an eye on future runs how they handle that rex block/transitory rex block setup.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7 May want to keep an eye on future runs how they handle that rex block/transitory rex block setup.

There could be potential for northern regions. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There could be potential for northern regions. 

Day 7 (Past 4 runs) You can see if that trend continues the trough would dig back into Eastern Washington.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Call me crazy(no, really), but I actually find some promise on this run....

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Call me crazy(no, really), but I actually find some promise on this run....

You crazy man!  

I am too.   

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You crazy man!  

I am too.   

If the trends Day 5-7 continue for the next several runs, we get a nice chilly shot.

[Timmy]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Call me crazy(no, really), but I actually find some promise on this run....

I can’t say for certain that you have willed some events into existence, but I wouldn’t bet against it

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals