December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Blizzard777]

26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I may be one of the few people here who thinks it might snow (in the lowlands) this month. Note I said might, not will. Basically, I don't think the models can be trusted very much more than a week out, and the implications of that mistrust cut both ways.

All things are possible! 
 

Sitting at my low for the day of 42* and dripping out 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

If the trends Day 5-7 continue for the next several runs, we get a nice chilly shot.

I heard the vaccine is a chilly shot as well.    Chilly shots all around!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I heard the vaccine is a chilly shot as well.    Chilly shots all around!  

Will you be lining up to receive the jab?!

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I can’t say for certain that you have willed some events into existence, but I wouldn’t bet against it

If only I could wield that kind of power. Ya never know! C'MON!!!!

12z ECMWF in 1 hour

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Will you be lining up to receive the jab?!

I assume I am way down the list in terms of priority.    By the time its my turn... there will be plenty of evidence on safety.   My wife will be getting it soon being a healthcare provider.  I assume your wife will as well?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I assume I am way down the list in terms of priority.    By the time its my turn... there will be plenty of evidence on safety.   My wife will be getting it soon being a healthcare provider.  I assume your wife will as well?

If you want to figure out how far back in the line you stand:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

If you’re under 60, don’t have any complicating health risks, and don’t work in one of a key few professions, odds are you stand pretty far back in that line (as I do).

[Gradient Keeper]

Here is something I've never posted.

7 Day Rainfall totals (Past 8 runs) Definite trend to cut back on moisture most noticeably in Oregon as the flat ridge offshore has nudged a bit further north aiming the firehose into northern Washington and coastal BC. That's not a trend I like seeing.

[El_Nina]

Still freezing in Parkdale.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I assume I am way down the list in terms of priority.    By the time its my turn... there will be plenty of evidence on safety.   My wife will be getting it soon being a healthcare provider.  I assume your wife will as well?

I’m going to get it, a little excited to actually. My wife on the other hand is panicking about it. In polls I’ve seen, men are more willing to get the vaccine, might be just men are not as willing to admit they are afraid. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

Still freezing in Parkdale.

Great climate. If I had a few million dollars I would buy a little pear orchard up there. 

[El_Nina]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m going to get it, a little excited to actually. My wife on the other hand is panicking about it. In polls I’ve seen, men are more willing to get the vaccine, might be just men are not as willing to admit they are afraid. 

Afraid of the virus or the vaccine? 

[Jesse]

Down to 41 with heavy drizzle now. Offshore flow seems to have picked up in the time being.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, El_Nina said:

Afraid of the virus or the vaccine? 

Vaccine is what I meant. But probably both. Though I have a friend who has supposedly already had it, but still won't leave his house. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least the models are now showing cold air penetrating the lower 48 to some extent. Even if it is not here, that is a better sign than a coast to coast blowtorch. 

[El_Nina]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Vaccine is what I meant. But probably both. Though I have a friend who has supposedly already had it, but still won't leave his house. 

Oh my God

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like an absolutely frigid Christmas for the upper Midwest. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, El_Nina said:

Oh my God

Oh yeah, I am totally being judged for going to see my twins for their birthday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is not an awful GFS run in the long range. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is not an awful GFS run in the long range. 

Decent placement, some decent above normal GOA heights, and a low digging near Hawaii.  Much better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Decent placement, some decent above normal GOA heights, and a low digging near Hawaii.  Much better.

Looks like a shot of arctic air into the Northern Plains just before New Year's. Maybe the next round of arctic air after that is another 500 miles west. 

[snow_wizard]

The situation over Eastern Asia and just off the East Coast of Asia is really good on this GFS run also.  A block over Asia causes the low off the coast to dig deeper thus dredging up more positive height anoms over the GOA.

[Jesse]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Vaccine is what I meant. But probably both. Though I have a friend who has supposedly already had it, but still won't leave his house. 

Karl Bonner 

[El_Nina]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Karl Bonner 

See you at the next one. 

[Omegaraptor]

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The situation over Eastern Asia and just off the East Coast of Asia is really good on this GFS run also.  A block over Asia causes the low off the coast to dig deeper thus dredging up more positive height anoms over the GOA.

Yup. Okhotsk Sea trough is a surf maker (in reference to NPAC wavetrain). Just waiting for seasonality to do its thing. Slower transition this year.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 1

[Deweydog]

It’s December 15th.

30 years ago right now the NAM would have looked chilly.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yup. Okhotsk Sea trough is a surf maker (in reference to NPAC wavetrain). Just waiting for seasonality to do its thing. Slower transition this year.

So true... growing up my dad always used to tell me to wait for the Okhotsk Sea trough surf maker.   I think all kids grow up knowing that is the real start of winter.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yup. Okhotsk Sea trough is a surf maker (in reference to NPAC wavetrain). Just waiting for seasonality to do its thing. Slower transition this year.

The Kamchatka Bomb and trough hugging Siberia. A huge important player.

 

[Deweydog]

I used to wear a lot of Okhotsk B’gosh clothes when I was a little kid.

Our climate was somewhat cooler then.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So true... growing up my dad always used to tell me to wait for the Okhotsk Sea trough surf maker.   I think all kids grow up knowing that is the real start of winter.  

Annual tradition in our house too!

But good to see that, whatever it is, it is a good thing, at least according to Phil.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I used to wear a lot of Okhotsk B’gosh clothes when I was a little kid.

Our climate was somewhat cooler then.

....and for proof here is Dewey as a child.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m going to get it, a little excited to actually. My wife on the other hand is panicking about it. In polls I’ve seen, men are more willing to get the vaccine, might be just men are not as willing to admit they are afraid. 

My wife is getting it next week (She is an RN who works in home health for the hospital in Wenatchee).  I will probably be getting mine in January, as I work in a LTC setting, though not for elderly people, but we are higher on the list then the general public.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

....and for proof here is Dewey as a child.

I look so happy!!!

The 18z long range must have looked GOOD that day!

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

All things are possible! 
 

Sitting at my low for the day of 42* and dripping out 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

55 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I like that most models are starting to pick up on GOA blocking between Christmas and New Years. The weeklies have been showing this for a while now and I was hoping the deterministic and ensemble guidance would start to reflect it as well.

The 00z EPS was a big step in the right direction and it appears the 12z GFS is too. 00z CMCE also showed GOA blocking developing in that timeframe. 

Promising trends, in my opinion. Placement and amplification will be worked out over the next week and a half but the signs are there.

GEFS looks decent.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I look so happy!!!

The 18z long range must have looked GOOD that day!

You were and this was before the Drunk Uncle too! The MRF was in the works though.

[Timmy Supercell]

Only just some light flakes this AM. 31 degrees.

On radar quite some juicy returns passed by just south of me.