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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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First snow of the year! Melting quick but at least a little left. Was down south picking up a new family member. 

Beautiful morning in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. It was 12F when I took these pics around 8:30am. Gotta get our winter fix somehow.

Major shift on the 12z EPS to lower heights over the West with rising heights in the SE compared to the 00z last night. Looking like a really fun mid month on through the Holidays. Perfect timing IMO!

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was such a great event! That was a weird winter at my place. Two great arctic events with snow and no other snow. Pretty insane we had 2X as much snow last winter. We only got about 1.5" with that December snow event, but did manage to have a 23/2 and 21/2 days. 

That was one weird but awesome winter here in Eugene. Two absolutely terrific events to bookend a very blah middle, including the mountains.

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7 minutes ago, dolt said:

That was one weird but awesome winter here in Eugene. Two absolutely terrific events to bookend a very blah middle, including the mountains.

I hiked the Table Rock trail on January 5th 2014. The summit is over 4800’ and there was barely any snow at the top. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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28 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This looks nice...

ww_snow48.84.0000.gif

Looks like about 8-10 inches of snow here after a high close to 60 on Monday afternoon.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tim probably will end up with close to a foot and another white Christmas. Sucks living to far south for that to be a possibility, pretty much ever. 

  • Snow 1
  • Weenie 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I hiked the Table Rock trail on January 5th 2014. The summit is over 4800’ and there was barely any snow at the top. 

Really hoping I can do a snowy hike at Silver Falls this winter. From the pics I've seen online it looks gorgeous in the snow.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim probably will end up with close to a foot and another white Christmas. Sucks living to far south for that to be a possibility, pretty much ever. 

You live at 1600’, don’t tell me you never have snow around on Christmas

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1 minute ago, Timmy said:

You live at 1600’, don’t tell me you never have snow around on Christmas

Not compared to Tim. Only once have I had snow on the ground since 2011 (2015). Obviously there would have been snow in 2008, and 2007. And that is probably it since 2000. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim probably will end up with close to a foot and another white Christmas. Sucks living to far south for that to be a possibility, pretty much ever. 

Sort of the norm in this area it seems... its been pretty typical to have snow on Christmas during our 16 years here.    It happens more often than not.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

He is the biggest weenie on the board. 

Oh he knows. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not compared to Tim. Only once have I had snow on the ground since 2011 (2015). Obviously there would have been snow in 2008, and 2007. And that is probably it since 2000. 

Wow, I think I had snow on the ground 3 out of 5 winters when I was near Portland at 1500’.  I think you usually did better than me on snow averages too.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Sort of the norm in this area it seems... its been pretty typical to have snow on Christmas during our 16 years here.    It happens more often than not.

Just doesn’t happen this far south. We have to wait until nearly spring when there is better upper level support. I would trade you my March 2012 snow for a white Christmas. Lol

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Best chance is definitely north and east of Seattle above 500’ obviously. people near the sound and below 500’ are gonna have a tough time getting accumulating snowfall. 

  • Excited 1

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Wow, I think I had snow on the ground 3 out of 5 winters when I was near Portland at 1500’.  I think you usually did better than me on snow averages too.

Yeah, but you did well with offshore flow if I recall, and Tim gets favored in offshore flow situations too. Once we get into February and March is when it seems like we do really well. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Meteorologist

The 500mb trough is much weaker on this run compared to the previous runs which pushed the storm track further south. Would be nice to see this trend a bit more south for Seattle.

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Hopefully someone scores something atleast. Razor thin margin but it’s definitely possible...I won’t be here I’ll be in Texas but definitely hoping for some snow! Here in Tacoma at 300’ near the sound it probably won’t amount to much anyways. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Best chance is definitely north and east of Seattle above 500’ obviously. people near the sound and below 500’ are gonna have a tough time getting accumulating snowfall. 

I am nervously/excitedly watching this. I am right on the line of 500’. Not putting much stock into it...

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Hoping for some flakes to fly. Being on the northern end of the city can help in situations like these, but obviously given my elevation, I don't expect anything in the way of significantly accumulating snowfall (more than a slushy trace) unless the pattern fundamentally changes. Either way, it's something fun to track!

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I will be happy if anyone below 500’ gets snow. Something tells me Randy has a good shot to score!

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I am nervously/excitedly watching this. I am right on the line of 500’. Not putting much stock into it...

You’ll probably get something atleast if this verifies. Temps are pretty marginal unfortunately looks like a lot of the precip falls during the daytime. Few hours later or earlier would really boost the odds.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, but you did well with offshore flow if I recall, and Tim gets favored in offshore flow situations too. Once we get into February and March is when it seems like we do really well. 

Yeah we were right in line with the gorge.

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It would be nice to see the timing get pushed back even a couple hours. Best forcing for Seattle on the GFS and EURO is around 1-5PM and pushing that back to even 3-7PM would make a significant difference.

Also worth watching for CZ development Monday evening.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

It would be nice to see the timing get pushed back even a couple hours. Best forcing for Seattle on the GFS and EURO is around 1-5PM and pushing that back to even 3-7PM would make a significant difference.

Also worth watching for CZ development Monday evening.

Oh, there will definitely be a PSCZ and a vigorous one, the flow out of the NNW after the frontal passage will be more than strong enough for upslope forcing. 

I expect Tim to have no less than 10-13 inches by Tuesday morning. 

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4 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Oh, there will definitely be a PSCZ and a vigorous one, the flow out of the NNW after the frontal passage will be more than strong enough for upslope forcing. 

I expect Tim to have no less than 10-13 inches by Tuesday morning. 

Here is the placement of the c-zone at 1 a.m. on Tuesday morning... this is 1-hour precip and not snow but obviously its all snow at that time.   This map better depicts the location of the c-zone at its peak.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-precip_1hr_inch-8627600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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