December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Ugh, I rather go from a rain event to snow rather then snow to rain.  I see the sleet and rain line pushing in  

Enjoy the moment best you can  

Yup we’re over to 100% sleet now.  Party is over.

Temp is 29.7°F so ZR/icing is a concern.

[Jesse]

Unfortunately the 12Z Euro made a big move toward the GFS in the handling of the trough early next week.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks similar to the 12z GFS actually. Trough just doesn't dig.

12z/00z Euro comparison...

 

Looks like the strength of that little ULL offshore is what makes the difference. A more rubust one keeps the dipping heights at bay over our region.

Models struggle with ULLs more than they do with many upper level features, which would explain the run to run swings in the mid range lately.

[Timmy Supercell]

33 and cloudy. Radar looking really healthy this morning.

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Unfortunately the 12Z Euro made a big move toward the GFS in the handling of the trough early next week.

We had 12 hours of hope.

[Timmy Supercell]

12z God Emperor Euro shows a couple inches at my place tonight into early tomorrow. But sort of stops going a week out. 

[Front Ranger]

It's probably been mentioned recently, but December is often the best month for the East during a La Nina.

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

We had 12 hours of hope.

It could always flip back at this point, or not. Every run has shown us kind of on the razor's edge for a decent cold snap, the trend this morning just happens to be a stronger ULL underneath the offshore ridge.

[ShawniganLake]

I think this may be the first time the GFS has been too aggressive with the southward push of cold air in the mid range.

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's probably been mentioned recently, but December is often the best month for the East during a La Nina.

Didn't they get a couple nice big storms in '10-'11 also? I was finishing my senior year of HS down here and distinctly remember the east coast getting a blizzard or two.

Was a nice season for the PNW Cascades.

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think this may be the first time the GFS has been too aggressive with the southward push of cold air in the mid range.

Great analysis as always. The Euro was on board too. Actually, it picked up on the pattern first yesterday, then the GFS "caught up" with the 00Z run last night.

[Timmy Supercell]

That snow Dec 21-23 range definitely not there anymore unless it's being pushed back.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looks like the strength of that little ULL offshore is what makes the difference. A more rubust one keeps the dipping heights at bay over our region.

Models struggle with ULLs more than they do with many upper level features, which would explain the run to run swings in the mid range lately.

I’m not sure it’s the ULL as much as it’s the shortwave amplitude itself, through which the ULL and transient GOA ridge exists . Basically an imbedded shortwave in quasi-destructive interference w/ long wave pattern. Fickle, to say the least. 

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure it’s the ULL as much as it’s the shortwave amplitude itself, through which the ULL and transient GOA ridge exists . Basically an imbedded shortwave in quasi-destructive interference w/ long wave pattern. Fickle, to say the least. 

There’s always more than one way to look at it.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's probably been mentioned recently, but December is often the best month for the East during a La Nina.

And March.  

Niña Decembers with cold/snow here usually have something more down the line, so I’m a bit more hopeful now.

As opposed to warm/snowless Niña Decembers, which are a death sentence for winter almost 100% of the time.

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Great analysis as always. The Euro was on board too. Actually, it picked up on the pattern first yesterday, then the GFS "caught up" with the 00Z run last night.

 

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

 

Nice. You forgot to mention all the signs of spring around your property in touday’s update!!

[Deweydog]

Shots fired!!!

 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Shots fired!!!

 

And it happened without you despite your efforts to provoke something all week. Time to step up your game

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Nice. You forgot to mention all the signs of spring around your property in touday’s update!!

Ask and you shall receive. Just snapped this one of the camellias in bloom

 

 

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ask and you shall receive. Just snapped this one of the camellias in bloom

 

Not buying it. Need to see a picture with today’s copy of the Shawnigazette in frame.

[Jesse]

Anyway, I think there was some actual model discussion going on before things got derailed.

I will be interested to see how the EPS handles next week’s progression.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

And it happened without you despite your efforts to provoke something all week. Time to step up your game

Example?

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Anyway, I think there was some actual model discussion going on before things got derailed.

I will be interested to see how the EPS handles next week’s progression.

We don’t have a daily paper here. Had to use last Thursday’s.  Hope this is satisfactory. 
 

 

 

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Example?

[van city]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Anyway, I think there was some actual model discussion going on before things got derailed.

I will be interested to see how the EPS handles next week’s progression.

You are right, looks lovely. 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

10-day total 2.4". Major low end outlier this run for me.

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Great analysis as always. The Euro was on board too. Actually, it picked up on the pattern first yesterday, then the GFS "caught up" with the 00Z run last night.

Anyways. Putting your little Jesse freak out aside. My post made no mention of what the Euro or any other model was showing. Just more a comment on how the GFS tends to handle things at that range. It’s an ongoing issue for it. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So again, examples?

I can find plenty from you.

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, van city said:

You are right, looks lovely. 

 

I'm not seeing the 12Z on pivotal yet. 

[Deweydog]

Anywho...

Would be nice to see weather action pick up a bit...

[Timmy]

Jesse had his first weenie meltdown of the season. Analog?

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Anywho...

Would be nice to see weather action pick up a bit...

Here’s hoping!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Love the humor from the Kansas City NWS (and it is true)

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

What we said: Some snow flurries remain possible tonight, as very very light snow moves slowly through the region.

 

What you read: Blah blah blah blah SNOW blah blah, blah blah SNOW blah blah blah blah.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Anywho...

Would be nice to see weather action pick up a bit...

Maritime continent forcing looks to go crazy second half of January. Which, unlike the 1st half of December, is very much a cold West signal at that point due to seasonal changes in wave pool climatology. Throw in the weak PV (perhaps a SSW) and the cards are all in place.

Still bearish on the first 7-10 days of January. But it’s nothing to worry about if that period is warm should the other stuff come to fruition.
 

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Jesse had his first weenie meltdown of the season. Analog?

Anyone actually following along would see that isn't what happened.

Of course most people, including @iFred, usually just skim this stuff, see my name a lot, and think it was 100% me.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Phil said:

Maritime continent forcing looks to go crazy second half of January. Which, unlike the 1st half of December, is very much a cold West signal at that point due to seasonal changes to wave pool climatology. Throw in the weak PV (perhaps a SSW) and the cards are all in place.

Still bearish on the first 7-10 days of January. But it’s nothing to worry about if that period is warm.
 

A decent storm train would be nice.

And I’m still a fan of the latter half of January.  Always have been.  

[catnip]

28 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ask and you shall receive. Just snapped this one of the camellias in bloom

 

 

Think blooming camellias and warm anomalies!

 

C'MON!!!!!!!!

[luminen]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Anyone actually following along would see that isn't what happened.

Of course most people, including @iFred, usually just skim this stuff, see my name a lot, and think it was 100% me.

It's ok man. We all have our weenie moments once in a while. You are allowed at least one this month! 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Anyone actually following along would see that isn't what happened.

Of course most people, including @iFred, usually just skim this stuff, see my name a lot, and think it was 100% me.

You personalize things far more than anyone else at this point.  Others may have matched you or even exceeded it at times in the past, but it’s generally not the case right now.  You’re sticking out like a sore thumb.  It makes you very susceptible to improperly analyzing posts from people on your little hit list in a certain light and dusting things up.  Common thread.

Anyway, let’s hope for something EVERYONE can get excited about!