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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro coming out and it appears too warm at the surface for 4PM.

Shows Seattle sitting at 52 when really they are sitting on either side of 40 per Wunderground stations.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-t2m_f-8595200.png

Way too warm up here as well. I’m at 34.5, that says I should be at 37. 

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First snow of the year! Melting quick but at least a little left. Was down south picking up a new family member. 

Beautiful morning in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. It was 12F when I took these pics around 8:30am. Gotta get our winter fix somehow.

Major shift on the 12z EPS to lower heights over the West with rising heights in the SE compared to the 00z last night. Looking like a really fun mid month on through the Holidays. Perfect timing IMO!

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm happy some of our weather geeks up north are seeing some snow and even snowy fun. Enjoy it. It's windy down here and about to rain. 12z runs/ensembles just.... It's hard to be very encouraged. I will look forward to the dry, cold east winds though. At least there's that. Maybe I'll take a vacation.

Have a good vacation. Remember winter may start in December, but real winter weather in PNW waits til February these days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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19 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

There's a joke in there somewhere.

LOL she has a 4WD Honda Pilot with the triple mountain/snowflake tires on them, but she also has to get on the freeway to get home (which she hasn't had to do before.)  She hates the freeway when its clear and dry.  She's stressed as hell with the holidays, so it may not be a good mix.  I've got proper snow tires on my car, and am much more comfortable driving in the snow.

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Here comes the monsoon. Down to 50. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Interesting. 

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Have a good vacation. Remember winter may start in December, but real winter weather in PNW waits til February these days. 

And late February at that. Besides ‘13-‘14 and ‘16-‘17, it seems to have been late February and March. Would really like another arctic blast around the solstice. Nothing like low sun angles when there’s snow around. 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like 925mb and 850mb temps are fairly close to what the 18z Euro progged for 4PM. A degree or two colder but nothing way off.

Seems like the surface temps are what's running ahead of schedule.

I'm not convinced that spc upper level temps are matching what's actually going on. I think some of that output comes from the RAP model.

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Almost time for things to start getting interesting for those of us further south. 

Here's the 18z Euro output from 4-11PM... If it's right, should start to see some snow at least mix in for some areas in Snohomish/King/Pierce over the next hour or two.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-instant_ptype_1hr-1608573600-1608595200-1608620400-80 (1).gif

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Back to rain here. Whelp, it was fun while it lasted.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 0"

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25 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro coming out and it appears too warm at the surface for 4PM.

Shows Seattle sitting at 52 when really they are sitting on either side of 40 per Wunderground stations.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-t2m_f-8595200.png

This looks pretty wrong to me. BFI is currently 40 and SEA is 43 at the 4pm update. 

SEA had a -12F drop in just the last hour alone. 

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24 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm happy some of our weather geeks up north are seeing some snow and even snowy fun. Enjoy it. It's windy down here and about to rain. 12z runs/ensembles just.... It's hard to be very encouraged. I will look forward to the dry, cold east winds though. At least there's that. Maybe I'll take a vacation.

Look at it this way: a week ago, there was no sign in the models this might happen. In fact, I recall posting something here that it might well snow in the lowlands before the month is out. I didn’t know this event was going to happen; I was just going on the generally poor model accuracy we’ve been experiencing.

Anyhow, that logic still holds: would not be surprised if another chance comes sooner than the models are indicating right now.

32˚F and still snowing here. A little over an inch of accumulation.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

This looks pretty wrong to me. BFI is currently 40 and SEA is 43 at the 4pm update. 

SEA had a -12F drop in just the last hour alone. 

Yup, it's definitely a fair amount colder than what was modeled for this time, at least at the surface.

Hoping this bodes well for the evening. 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yup, it's definitely a fair amount colder than what was modeled for this time, at least at the surface.

Hoping this bodes well for the evening. 

I guess the key would be, is the front just progressing faster than expected?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Went for a walk earlier and saw some pretty intense urban flooding. I’d never seen the creek that high in my life.

Super cool to see the dynamics of this event as the rain poured and temperatures dropped from 55°F to 39°F in the span of an hour. Hoping to see some snow flying in the air soon... 🤞

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728D94B2-F3F6-4B12-84AA-7CED9B679B84.thumb.jpeg.c8af7fe0d9d420dfcb2cf33c2bda5575.jpeg

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50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Long range GFS is very interesting... Okay not very, but it at least through us a bone. Dry and chilly. 

Unfortunately, the dominant theme of the ensembles is still an Aleutian low in the extended.

But the different operationals keep flirting with a semi-interesting setup around day 10, so at least there's that.

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Low. Solar.

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