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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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Shawnigan and Tim are going to be buried. Beyond that, not sure. Gonna come down to precip rates of course, the duration of 0.10"+/hr rates will determine who gets accumulations, if it's just 2-3 hours of that then it'll be really tough below 500'. I'd be careful putting any real stock into maps that use 10:1 ratios when the same models are generally showing 34-35F temps (these amounts tend to be overdone as it is, even with ideal surface conditions).

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Shawnigan and Tim are going to be buried. Beyond that, not sure. Gonna come down to precip rates of course, the duration of 0.10"+/hr rates will determine who gets accumulations, if it's just 2-3 hours of that then it'll be really tough below 500'. I'd be careful putting any real stock into maps that use 10:1 ratios when the same models are generally showing 34-35F temps (these amounts tend to be overdone as it is, even with ideal surface conditions).

I would be surprised if Tim’s totals are below double digits. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just got home from a whirlwind day trip from Salem to the redwoods of Del Norte County and up the south coast to Newport and across.

Beautiful foggy and misty morning among the Giants. Dry and mid 50's up until around Florence and then heavy rain until getting back to Salem.

Bonus was 50 kt winds on the exposed headland of Cape Blanco. Had to park facing south to avoid car doors being compromised.

Bonus#2 was cheap whisky in CA and some great Christmas gifts from Face Rock Creamery in Bandon.

 

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52 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NAM continues to get snowier with each run...

nam-218-all-washington-total_snow_10to1-8616800.png

This is the best NAM run yet for my place. This shows about 4-5”. I’d be interested to see what the hi resolution shows. It’s an interesting setup, definitely one that can produce snow here with the cold front, but it’s going to be quick, so the timing of the change over is key. If it works out we get 2-3 hours of very heavy snow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

Just got home from a whirlwind day trip from Salem to the redwoods of Del Norte County and up the south coast to Newport and across.

Beautiful foggy and misty morning among the Giants. Dry and mid 50's up until around Florence and then heavy rain until getting back to Salem.

Bonus was 50 kt winds on the exposed headland of Cape Blanco. Had to park facing south to avoid car doors being compromised.

Bonus#2 was cheap whisky in CA and some great Christmas gifts from Face Rock Creamery in Bandon.

 

Sounds like a great day. Bandon is gorgeous. As for the redwoods it goes without saying.

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

NAM continues to get snowier with each run...

nam-218-all-washington-total_snow_10to1-8616800.png

This run is way better than the previous ones.  Looks like we are in the sweet spot with this run.  Must be King County is where the convergence is expected to set up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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57 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not disingenuous at all. The large scale pattern is conducive for a suppressed storm track and colder than average temperatures. The mesoscale and macroscale/synoptic scale are connected at the hip.

 

It's a pretty brief blip in the overall pattern. Ridging returns immediately to the West Coast.

Now if we were seeing sustained -PNA, that would be another story.

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1 hour ago, puyallupjon said:

How reliable is the NAM in the home stretch?  I doubt anyone in the gray or blue gets any sticking snow.  Tim on the other hand will likely score some sticking snow.

The blue areas could certainly see some.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's a pretty brief blip in the overall pattern. Ridging returns immediately to the West Coast.

Now if we were seeing sustained -PNA, that would be another story.

If you look at the surface pressure and thickness progs the next 10 days look chillier than you might expect based on the 500mb.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's a pretty brief blip in the overall pattern. Ridging returns immediately to the West Coast.

Now if we were seeing sustained -PNA, that would be another story.

As you would be saying if you had made the forecast, the ridge doesn’t stick around for long.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

If you look at the surface pressure and thickness progs the next 10 look chillier than you might expect based on the 500mb.

Yeah, should definitely be chillier than the first two thirds of the month. But not a large scale cold pattern for the West...not yet.

Still need actual NE Pacific blocking to emerge, and kick out the dominant Aleutian low.

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2 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

NWS forecast for the Cascades might need an update . . .

Monday: Rain and snow. Snow level near 5500 feet. Rainfall amounts one to three inches possible. Afternoon pass temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. South wind in the passes around 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

Funny thing is that it will most likely be raining at white pass elev 4500' while simultaneously snowing in Mukilteo and paine field environs due to the trajectory of the low pressure cell. Amazing isn't it?!?

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1608627600-XaplPv4Epig.png

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

00z continues the weakening trend the last 3 runs.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh36_trend (1).gif

The setup maintains more baroclinicity than earlier runs.  That's an important aspect of this.  As we've seen before the temperature gradients with baroclinic zones can be insane.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Through 4PM Monday...This is a hair snowier than the 18z run for Central Sound. 

gfs-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_10to1-8595200.png

King County does well on every model.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, puyallupjon said:

So it's going to rain a bunch on Monday and then when the cold air wraps around the low it turns to snow?  Yeah.  No accumulating snow in the swamp with this set up.  

Exactly what is expected.  I've mentioned Dec 1974 many times as an analog.  Rained all day and then snowed like crazy and there were widespread accumulations.  This is a relatively rare setup.  We had a lesser example of it maybe 8 or 10 years ago.  It went from 60 early in the evening to snowing in the morning with that one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Through 7PM...

Pretty close in total amounts vs 18z but a little more spread out from Everett southward.

Certainly is starting to appear that King County might be ground zero for this round, if it materializes. Although Pierce and others still do well. 

gfs-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_10to1-8606000-1.png

Models think puyallyupjon will outdo Mossman with this. 😀

That would be a first. 

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Wow.  It was actually 17 years ago when we had that baroclinic band snowfall I referenced in an earlier post.   Time sure flies.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, should definitely be chillier than the first two thirds of the month. But not a large scale cold pattern for the West...not yet.

Still need actual NE Pacific blocking to emerge, and kick out the dominant Aleutian low.

OLM is +3.4 through yesterday, good chance they bump that up to +4 or so before the cooler pattern emerges.

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Models think puyallyupjon will outdo Mossman with this. 😀

That would be a first. 

In all seriousness we are due for a winter where the southern areas do better.  It most certainly does happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Quite the gradient

1608588000-p7FkLwvuSiA.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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