December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It certainly wasn't a warm run Andfew.

It was still horrible Jefse.

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Would be nice if we could count on January to make up for it.

Yeah. Let’s hope January delivers. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

So you’re saying winter is over. Looking forward to pinning your “forks out” post on New Years Day.

I was going to hold off until the EURO weeklies on January 7th, but I can certainly move the process up a bit if it is in the best interests of our forum community. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Would be nice if we could count on January to make up for it.

Can't say I'm feeling too good about it. There continues to be a lack of anything remotely impressive across the northern hemisphere. Even Alaska looks mild for the foreseeable future, unlike last year which at least delivered up there in spite of its ineptitude. 

[Jesse]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was going to hold off until the EURO weeklies on January 7th, but I can certainly move the process a bit if it is in the best interests of our forum community. 

Waiting until after me birthday. Thoughtful.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point this winter is starting to throw off more and more of a 2000-01 vibe. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Waiting until after me birthday. Thoughtful.

Happy birthday young man. I know what you will be wishing for when you blow out those candles. 

[TT-SEA]

Here comes the sun...

[Jesse]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Happy birthday young man. I know what you will be wishing for when you blow out those candles. 

Still about 360 hours to go. 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At this point this winter is starting to throw off more and more of a 2000-01 vibe. 

Eh, the pattern that year really wasn't close to this.

November/December 2000 was extremely blocky and cold across the continent. One of the few genuinely impressive stretches this century for the country (although it was technically still the 20th century). Check out Bartlesville's records from that stretch!

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Eh, the pattern that year really wasn't close to this.

November/December 2000 was extremely blocky and cold across the continent One of the few genuinely impressive stretches this century for the country (although it was technically still the 20th century). Check out Bartlesville's records from that stretch!

Yeah I was gonna say, that was a cold fall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oof

[rsktkr]

Winter '20-21 felt over before it began in The Willamette Valley. Early cold feels like a bad omen to me. 

I do like the support this group offers to people that get down in the dumps about yet another blah winter. The encouraging comments about it still being early and how things can change quickly are all awesome but there is something to be said for adjusting to the fact that this winter is not going to deliver. I have stopped thinking optimistically and started thinking realistically and I feel a lot better. It's not a distraction now at least.

Onward!

[AbbyJr]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

Mother of all jet extensions incoming to start the new year, following Siberian High descent/+EAMT. Probably with SSW ongoing as well.

When that jet retracts and SSW completes..it gets fun.

Around mid January?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, rsktkr said:

Winter '20-21 felt over before it began in The Willamette Valley. Early cold feels like a bad omen to me. 

I do like the support this group offers to people that get down in the dumps about yet another blah winter. The encouraging comments about it still be early and how things can change quickly are all awesome but there is something to be said for adjusting to the fact that this winter is not going to deliver. I have stopped thinking optimistically and started thinking realistically and I feel a lot better. It's not a distraction now at least.

In late January 2019 plenty of Seattle-area posters were in full-blown winter cancel mode….

[TT-SEA]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Eh, the pattern that year really wasn't close to this.

November/December 2000 was extremely blocky and cold across the continent. One of the few genuinely impressive stretches this century for the country (although it was technically still the 20th century). Check out Bartlesville's records from that stretch!

Oh wow... Yeah... I was definitely wrong on that. Bville had their 2nd coldest December on record (26.6) and 17" of snow. 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In late January 2019 plenty of Seattle-area posters were in full-blown winter cancel mode….

Yes we were!! I was close to writing off winter and then I ended up with solid snow cover for 40+ days! 

[Jesse]

Looks like some snow in the Gorge later this week, per the 12z Euro.

[Jesse]

Just now, MossMan said:

Yes we were!! I was close to writing off winter and then I ended up with solid snow cover for 40+ days! 

Hearing about you getting lowland snow is like hearing about Jeff Bezos getting a pay raise.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Jesse said:

Hearing about you getting lowland snow is like hearing about Jeff Bezos getting a pay raise.

Well he's gotta make back all that money his wife took from him. 

[Canadian guy]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In late January 2019 plenty of Seattle-area posters were in full-blown winter cancel mode….

This is very true. Things did not look good leading up to February 2019 and then things suddenly changed. It does not look promising at the moment but hopefully the SSW around New Years will shake up the pattern for the better (as long as the SSW does occur).

[Jesse]

Just now, Canadian guy said:

This is very true. Things did not look good leading up to February 2019 and then things suddenly changed. It does not look promising at the moment but hopefully the SSW around New Years will shake up the pattern for the better (as long as the SSW does occur).

If it happens I will take everyone out for roast beef sandwiches and curly fries at Abby's.

[Canadian guy]

Chilly out there today. Currently sitting just below freezing. The 2 inches we got is frozen solid. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Canadian guy said:

Chilly out there today. Currently sitting just below freezing. The 2 inches we got is frozen solid. 

Wish we could have dipped below freezing. We hit 32.4 during the snowfall but it’s been all uphill since.

[Front Ranger]

41 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It certainly wasn't a warm run Andfew.

Euro looks chilly days 6-7.

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well he's gotta make back all that money his wife took from him. 

We can always count on you to defend billionaires. 

[Canadian guy]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wish we could have dipped below freezing. We hit 32.4 during the snowfall but it’s been all uphill since.

My location warmed up to 35 after the front passed but other parts of Victoria climbed to 40. Was surprised to wake up to a temp of 28 this morning  with hardly any melting other than on the cement and trees.

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In late January 2019 plenty of Seattle-area posters were in full-blown winter cancel mode….

Everything is moved up a month this time. Good sign!

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Everything is moved up a month this time. Good sign!

When we lose the Justin/Jesse entirely, the table is set. Not sure if we’re there yet.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Another 2019 memory is how, when model runs started getting “interesting,” the Euro kept calling for the central Puget Sound area to get cumulative snowfalls of around 2 feet. Everyone thought it was on drugs.

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks way better with macroscale features than GFS by day 7. 

Didn't someone mention something about models still not sampling as much data due to the pandemic?

 

[Phil]

43 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Can't say I'm feeling too good about it. There continues to be a lack of anything remotely impressive across the northern hemisphere. Even Alaska looks mild for the foreseeable future, unlike last year which at least delivered up there in spite of its ineptitude. 

I’d say odds are several orders of magnitude higher this year than last year. The pattern looks messy on guidance, but much of that is a reflection of the regime shift to high latitude blocking perturbing the wave pool.

First 7-10 days of January are unlikely to perform, but mid-January onwards gets interesting in a hurry if tropical analogs and history have anything to say about it.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Didn't someone mention something about models still not sampling as much data due to the pandemic?

A number of us have. A lot of the initializing data comes from commercial aircraft.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Positive PNA for awhile. This would be determinate for snow here in the PNW. If Seattle does not get anymore snow this year, Seattle would have 12/16 of the last years with four inches or less. 8/16 would have one inch or less. Not a good trend

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

When we lose the Justin/Jesse entirely, the table is set. Not sure if we’re there yet.

I won't give up on this winter until MLK 2022.

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, jakerepp said:

I think we need pics from the lottery winner!

I only took 1 around 10am yesterday when I was leaving for work. About 3-4” around that time. 
 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here comes the sun...

Good song, Beatles 1969.

[Phil]

Only on this forum would winter be cancelled 12hrs after a dynamic front with an anafrontal snow thump.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d say odds are several orders of magnitude higher this year than last year. The pattern looks messy on guidance, but much of that is a reflection of the regime shift to high latitude blocking perturbing the wave pool.

First 7-10 days of January are unlikely to perform, but mid-January onwards gets interesting in a hurry if tropical analogs and history have anything to say about it.

Not sure what analogs are still relevant. 1988 is still our best hope, I suppose. Gonna have to watch Die Hard tonight to realize that dream.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Only on this forum would winter be cancelled 12hrs after a dynamic front with an anafrontal snow thump.

Mood's change quicker than the weather. That is a lot considering that we had a record high yesterday and snow

[TigerWoodsLibido]

26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

If it happens I will take everyone out for roast beef sandwiches and curly fries at Abby's.

Abby's pizza is amazing. Love their pretzel-ish crust and their potato wedges.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Only on this forum would winter be cancelled 12hrs after a dynamic front with an anafrontal snow thump.

A few more tigers seem to be roaming the woods this morning.  

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro looks way better with macroscale features than GFS by day 7. 

Didn't someone mention something about models still not sampling as much data due to the pandemic?

 

Also radically different than GFS days 8-10.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Abby's pizza is amazing. Love their pretzel-ish crust and their potato wedges.

I had never had it until a couple years ago when we were in Bend.  Pretty D**n good.

[Jesse]

Nice chilly period leading up to New Years on the 12Z Euro. Also a good run for snow in the central and eastern Gorge. We will be out there for New Years eve and day, so hoping for snow on the ground.

All in all a much better run than the 12Z GFS.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Abby's pizza is amazing. Love their pretzel-ish crust and their potato wedges.

You haven't lived until you've tried their horsey sauce and jamocha shakes.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows some potential on New Years Eve...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Jesse said:

You haven't lived until you've tried their horney sauce and jamocha shakes.

Bolded is how I read this at first...

[Phil]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Not sure what analogs are still relevant. 1988 is still our best hope, I suppose. Gonna have to watch Die Hard tonight to realize that dream.

Well, 1988/89 and 2017/18 were/are the closest SSTA/warm pool matches, and have been for months. Looking farther back, 1942/43 (reconstructed) is relatively close as well.

Also, there’s some lower frequency homogeneities between 2020 and 1995/96 & 2010/11. While they were different in terms of the timing and amplitude of their respective intraseasonal cycles, especially in November, the low pass signals are increasingly adjacent.

The vast majority of analogs I’ve looked at featured significant western cold/snow at some point.