December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[AbbyJr]

1 hour ago, puyallupjon said:

do you work for KOMO?

No I don't work for any news or weather company. I'm just a weather enthusiast. 

[Esquimalt]

Has the eps come out get?

[Cloud]

The 0z euro is giving us a bit of a reality check. Maybe just too warm. Overall, kind of a bad trend when some models have cut back on the lowland snow today. 

[MossMan]

38 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

No I don't work for any news or weather company. I'm just a weather enthusiast. 

My wife worked at KOMO back in the late 1990’s/early 2000’s! 

[wxmet]

NAM 06z is further SW with the low.

[Esquimalt]

HRR gives me a foot 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[bainbridgekid]

6z NAM definitely more like the GFS than the Euro through your 30.  Not nearly as far North as the Euro.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

6z NAM definitely more like the GFS than the Euro through your 30.  Not nearly as far North as the Euro.

 

I need a definite answer If we’re cancelling winter. Gotta decide whether to break out shorts or not

[Esquimalt]

Nam looks good for most. Anyone have maps?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[snow_wizard]

Just like that the models are starting to look better in the longer range now.  Big improvement on the EPS...especially the control by New Years.  It's also worth noting the GFS and ECMWF operational models begin to show a big log jam of high pressure cells beginning to pile up over the Pacific and favorable parts of North America in the near future.  Not looking too bad.

As for Monday's possible event....we should know a lot more in 24 hours.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Either way, +PNA has been dominant and one skinny, transitory ridge isn't flipping the pattern.

However, it does appear things might be starting to move in the right direction.

You can claim "delayed but not denied" if it gets cold in early January. 

Nah, the pattern progression has been roughly in line with expectations. 

I’m sorry if you’re confused.

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

 

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Idk if having the NAM on our side is good or not

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

No way.   I prefer 70s and 80s.     We try not to leave home much in the summer.   

Bull. You and Phoenix would fit like hand and glove.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Esquimalt said:

Has the eps come out get?

Yup....and it's looking better.  Some sign of above normal heights over the NE Pacific and below normal over the NW.  The control looks like it about to get really interesting in early Jan.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just like that the models are starting to look better in the longer range now.  Big improvement on the EPS...especially the control by New Years.  It's also worth noting the GFS and ECMWF operational models begin to show a big log jam of high pressure cells beginning to pile up over the Pacific and North America in the near future.  Not looking too bad.

 

As for Monday's possible event....we should know a lot more in 24 hours.

It will be Monday in 24 hours.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What the hell?!

[wxmet]

13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z EPS members...

While the initial landfall is more certain, the track of the low into the Cascades and Eastern WA is still largely up for debate which plays an important role in snow chances. The OP is definitely on the north end of possibilities. 

Incredible amount of spread at just 48 hours which would make a huge differences for the western WA depending on the low track. Suggests there is still a large amount of uncertainty. This could wind up being a nowcast situation if the models fail to converge runs later today. It is good to see a cluster of southern solutions though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is new...Andrew, Alert!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is new...

Definitely a wtf moment here lol

[SnarkyGoblin]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'd bet my lunch that band in King County goes further north and shrinks.  I live in North Seattle and we rarely see convergence zone events.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EVERYBODY, GET IN HERE!!!

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Incredible amount of spread at just 48 hours which would make a huge differences for the western WA depending on the low track. Suggests there is still a large amount of uncertainty. This could wind up being a nowcast situation if the models fail to converge runs later today. It is good to see a cluster of southern solutions though.

I don't think there is any doubt it will be a nowcast situation. With temps between 33-36 and small scale bands in the baroclinic band and convergence zone, we'll certainly all be watching the radar and obs a lot on Monday.

[Esquimalt]

Anyone have the HRRR 06Z map? Looked pretty D**n good for everyoke

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Incredible amount of spread at just 48 hours which would make a huge differences for the western WA depending on the low track. Suggests there is still a large amount of uncertainty. This could wind up being a nowcast situation if the models fail to converge runs later today. It is good to see a cluster of southern solutions though.

It is a nowcast situation, said it all day today and still stand by it. We've seen instances like this before, especially when there is no cold pool to tap into at the surface level to start. It's very fringy and we just gotta be window watching. The low can be slightly off and we'll be staring at 34-35F mix snow/rain. 

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Anyone have the HRRR 06Z map? Looked pretty D**n good for everyoke

It's a pretty terrible model though outside 24 hours.

[Esquimalt]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

It's a pretty terrible model though outside 24 hours.

Thanks, not really expecting 13 inches but would gladly take it! Seems mostly in line with what the other models were saying, except the track is a little further south along the olympics

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EVERYBODY, GET IN HERE!!!

Anymore accumulations after hour 48? I think it goes to hr 60 right?

[luminen]

Snowy today here

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Anymore accumulations after hour 48? I think it goes to hr 60 right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

IDK what is going on with this? Perhaps it stalls some energy along the east side of the Willamette Valley along the foothills?

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, einsteinjr said:

I'd bet my lunch that band in King County goes further north and shrinks.  I live in North Seattle and we rarely see convergence zone events.

This is a different situation than normal.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

King/Pierce county seems to be in a good place right now. I would bet my money on those counties atm

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IDK what is going on with this? Perhaps it stalls some energy along the east side of the Willamette Valley along the foothills?

Looks like an anafront type situation. Cold air catches up to the front and briefly switches parts of the valley to snow Monday evening before drying out. Pretty unlikely for areas under 800 feet down there IMO unfortunately.

[snow_wizard]

Another interesting thing to mention tonight is the ECMWF surface obs show below normal temps (near normal highs below normal lows) after Monday morning for the remainder of the 10 day period.  It might be the beginning of what we've been expecting.

[snow_wizard]

I really hope the next couple of ECMWF runs get with the program again.  I'm pretty encouraged by the number of EPS members that had a further south track and the most recent NAM and HRRR runs.