December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IDK what is going on with this? Perhaps it stalls some energy along the east side of the Willamette Valley along the foothills?

I messaged Cozart to see his thoughts since this is a new and rather shocking development.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Looks like an anafront type situation. Cold air catches up to the front and briefly switches parts of the valley to snow Monday evening before drying out. Pretty unlikely for areas under 800 feet down there IMO unfortunately.

I agree. Unlikely. 

[snow_wizard]

I should mention that we need to limit the amount of weatherbell maps we post on here.  We are not supposed to be posting most of the stuff we have been.  We can probably get away with some, but just keep it in mind.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I should mention that we need to limit the amount of weatherbell maps we post on here.  We are not supposed to be posting most of the stuff we have been.  We can probably get away with some, but just keep it in mind.

It’s legal till we get caught

[Jbolin]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I should mention that we need to limit the amount of weatherbell maps we post on here.  We are not supposed to be posting most of the stuff we have been.  We can probably get away with some, but just keep it in mind.

Not an issue considering that most WB products can now be found elsewhere and with ECMWF's statement about their products being made free several weeks back, I'm not sure it's such a problem. 

[wxmet]

Weatherbell maps are also at weathermodels.com and are $10 less per month. I guess Maue got to keep the rights to his maps to distribute elsewhere after leaving weather bell

[TigerWoodsLibido]

WB has tons of options and I feel like posting some maps is actually going to entice people to want to purchase their product. It worked for me.

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

WB has tons of options and I feel like posting some maps is actually going to entice people to want to purchase their product. It worked for me.

Was close to doing it today but i'm not going to contribute to anything Bastardi is a part of.

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

FWIW, I've been posting WB maps seasonally for a few years now and never had an issue. Not sure if that's just me tempting fate or if they don't really care to go after 'personal forecasters' for that kind of stuff.

On another note, not sure if it's been posted here or not already but the high-res WRF looked quite nice. 

The last couple WRF runs have really liked the area between Everett and Shoreline, but that 7-8" is the most any model has shown here. I don't know what I'd even do with myself if we pulled something crazy like that off.

[Meatyorologist]

Alright. A full 20 minutes of catching up on the forums. that's quite a lot for it being 1:30am.

Heard lots of mentions of Feb. 7th, 2017. Gave me some PTSD from that night..... I've mentioned it before here but I was donut holed as my *very* location was the last to switch over to snow. Ended up with 1.5" that melted by noon. Still, I got something I guess...but to think of what it might have been...

Anyways, I've got the 06z tonight. Here we go.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Init.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

Will it go north? Will it go south? How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop?

[bainbridgekid]

Slightly NW of the 0z at hour 30.

 

 

[wxmet]

Heavy snow for everyone

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN

[bainbridgekid]

Takes the low pretty much through Seattle with some very heavy wet snow around Seattle behind the low.

 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

Total snowfall

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

TOUCHDOWN

D**n.... no revenge for the south sound for last year

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

I can get onboard with this...

I like it. Getting me nervous tho. I could go from 3-4 inches to half an inch with anymore movement

 

[Meatyorologist]

If only there were always 10:1 ratios with freezing surface temps! 

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

If only there were always 10:1 ratios with freezing surface temps! 

If only freezing were 40 degrees!

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[Cloud]

46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I should mention that we need to limit the amount of weatherbell maps we post on here.  We are not supposed to be posting most of the stuff we have been.  We can probably get away with some, but just keep it in mind.

Local mets like Scott S. and Morgan P. been posting WB maps on social media for years. I don't see why it's an issue. 

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

That map includes 2 inches that supposedly fall between 10AM-1PM, which would in reality probably not amount to that much given the time of day. The rest falls mainly between 2-4PM with another couple inches more by 7PM.

I think everything would have to work out beyond perfect to get a scenario like this. I think shaving off a couple inches would be smart and get a little closer to actual possible totals. But who knows.

 

Everyone should know those map totals ain't verifying in this setup. Temps are too marginal for anything close to a 10:1 ratio. Still really fun to track and dream though.

[Cloud]

06z GFS is still very much on board it seems, while 00z Euro backed off a little. 

It's time to get these two models into the ring and duke it out to see who comes out on top Tuesday. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just your ho-hum 23 degree temp gradient.

[wxmet]

Discovered a really nice product on tropical tidbits which is a cross section. This one is a cross section that I took roughly from the Olympics through the Seattle metro then to the cascades. You can see the mid-level omega forcing intersects the dendritic growth zone which is why the snowfall rates are so high. 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 4

(past 4 runs)

[wxmet]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Local mets like Scott S. and Morgan P. been posting WB maps on social media for years. I don't see why it's an issue. 

Wouldn't be surprised if they had the professional license from WB

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ensemble

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS day 5

(past 4 runs)

[wxmet]

Here is north to south cross section from from roughly Bellingham to the south Sound. Notice how the freezing line dips close to the surface near the central Sound which would help areas closer to sea level.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Wouldn't be surprised if they had the professional license from WB

I'm pretty sure they do, but  it's also about exposure and information. More exposure means more people will sub to WB and allow more people to be informed. Unless WB decides it wants to crack down people sharing, which I don't see happening due to recent decision by the Euro to make maps more readily available to the public.

[GHweatherChris]

Not gonna happen

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 7

(Past 4 runs)

[TacomaWaWx]

54 here currently warmest we’ve been since 11/17...and it’s supposed to snow in 24 hours? Crazy. Up to 3.21” on the month and 0.01” today. 

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Not gonna happen

For you maybe...for places in the EPSL above 500’ it’s looking pretty certain now. In and around Seattle below that it’s possible but not certain just yet. Not expecting much here tbh but I’ll be in Texas so oh well. 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 8