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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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First snow of the year! Melting quick but at least a little left. Was down south picking up a new family member. 

Beautiful morning in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon. It was 12F when I took these pics around 8:30am. Gotta get our winter fix somehow.

Major shift on the 12z EPS to lower heights over the West with rising heights in the SE compared to the 00z last night. Looking like a really fun mid month on through the Holidays. Perfect timing IMO!

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2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I will add you to the blocked members.  Thanks Phil, you make things easy for me.  Take care.

Was that really necessary? 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... that southern c-zone is not really a c-zone.   Its what is happening right now.   

First image is right about now.   Second image is at 1 a.m. and the third image is 4 a.m. as the northern c-zone fades into the Cascades and does not move south.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-8609600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-8627600 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-8638400.png

K, but I still think a south sound CZ happens overnight. Is that OK with you?

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2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

K, but I still think a south sound CZ happens overnight. Is that OK with you?

Sounds good.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Last Dec snowfall for me was 2016.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Ended up with 1.5~2" of snow here, the temperature is back up to 35.6F and there's a bit of melting going on but not as much as I would have expected. The sky looks totally clear now and radiative cooling is likely helping holdoff the melt. Could be a very icy morning tomorrow.

Ended up with around 2 inches here as well. Can you imagine how much snow we would have got with that track and the amount of precipitation if there was cold air to draw from  or arctic air in place. 

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Looks like its just about done here... probably not enough to justify using the snowblower so maybe getting it ready was a jinx. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Was that really necessary? 

I see he edited the response now. Wasn’t attacking him or anything so not sure what’s up.

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1 minute ago, Canadian guy said:

Ended up with around 2 inches here as well. Can you imagine how much snow we would have got with that track and the amount of precipitation if there was cold air to draw from  or arctic air in place. 

Yeah, I was thinking about that, I recorded 42.4mm of precipitation today not including whatever unmelted snow is left on the gauge. We'd probably be talking in feet of snow rather than inches had their been Arctic air in place. Although some places would get a pretty nasty hit of freezing rain in that case too.

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12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

1372753831_500h_anom.npac(50).thumb.png.573ce7306d7d19a64e33b40117229d40.png

I think this may have been mentioned already, but the 18z looked real nice in the long range. 00z evolving in a similar way.

Stronger with the SSW as well.

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So its raining in Klamath Falls right now. And started out pretty heavy.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Just measured 2" on the snow table, what a fun event! It was an entertaining afternoon since I had family spread across western Washington. Someone was reporting snow while another's basement was flooding from the heavy rain.. meanwhile I was sitting at 58 degrees and dry. And most everyone, at least briefly, got their turn.

The timing was ideal too: I was home from work but the kids were still awake. We probably disturbed the neighbors hollering and singing on the deck during the heavy bands of snow.

The excitement and weather updates here enhanced the experience. Cheers y'all

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15 minutes ago, Canadian guy said:

Ended up with around 2 inches here as well. Can you imagine how much snow we would have got with that track and the amount of precipitation if there was cold air to draw from  or arctic air in place. 

Easily 15–20" at KBLI if today’s storm had been 100% snow at temps cold enough for it to be dry snow.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Just measured 2" on the snow table, what a fun event! It was an entertaining afternoon since I had family spread across western Washington. Someone was reporting snow while another's basement was flooding from the heavy rain.. meanwhile I was sitting at 58 degrees and dry. And most everyone, at least briefly, got their turn.

The timing was ideal too: I was home from work but the kids were still awake. We probably disturbed the neighbors hollering and singing on the deck during the heavy bands of snow.

The excitement and weather updates here enhanced the experience. Cheers y'all

Thanks for the update... I was about to go out and measure.    Looks like about 2 inches to me. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Back to looking at models, some nice mountain snow for our Cascades according to tonight’s GFS so far.
image.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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On 12/15/2020 at 8:12 AM, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I may be one of the few people here who thinks it might snow (in the lowlands) this month. Note I said might, not will. Basically, I don't think the models can be trusted very much more than a week out, and the implications of that mistrust cut both ways.

Called it!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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SEA had quite a day today.  Record high, record precip, and snow.  They crashed from 59 to 34 during the passage of the cold front.

Today makes the 4th freakish warm spike we have had since November 1 and most of those had the bottom fall out right afterward.  Pretty bizarre.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 25

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

So the SSW is confirmed and in progress now? Just want to know the details of it. 

The SSW did happen earlier in the month I just checked.  It spiked and the polar strat temps have remained above normal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 25

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA had quite a day today.  Record high, record precip, and snow.  They crashed from 59 to 34 during the passage of the cold front.

Today makes the 4th freakish warm spike we have had since November 1 and most of those had the bottom fall out right afterward.  Pretty bizarre.

Exhaustingly fun day! 
I think my brain overloaded with everything happening! 

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11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Back to looking at models, some nice mountain snow for our Cascades according to tonight’s GFS so far.
image.png

Maybe a storm by then? 

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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By the way, today is the answer to the question of why non-snowy clown range forecasts never bust while snowy ones almost always do. Non-snowy clown range forecasts can and do sometimes bust. None of the major models were indicating lowland snow for today a week ago.

In fact, I would guess that if one did an analysis, most of it comes down to emotional involvement. Most people here (including me) want snow, so place more importance on model runs showing it. Then when they bust, we tend to remember the disappointment.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Maybe a storm by then? 

1608962400-mXMIpzTLbVg.png

Gonna be close for K-Falls on Christmas night.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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9 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

So it happened already? The models I thought were stuck at hr384 still with the bulk of the west 10mb winds. No?

No.  Wherever Jim is talking about is not a big SSW event.  What sp many forecasters are talking about might happen in early January.  And if and when it does, no guarantee the cold air heads our way, but there is a good chance it would

  

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA had quite a day today.  Record high, record precip, and snow.  They crashed from 59 to 34 during the passage of the cold front.

Today makes the 4th freakish warm spike we have had since November 1 and most of those had the bottom fall out right afterward.  Pretty bizarre.

Probably going to get a cold/clear night out of it too. It cleared right up behind the front over here.

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1 hour ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

That wasn't me.  I said that no way downtown Seattle gets an inch of snow.

I meant to post this earlier but got caught up in the excitement of the snow. You did, in fact, say the models were on drugs and 'that will never happen' when someone mentioned the temp difference.

Not a big deal, just keeping you as honest as we can get... Which honestly isn't much. 

SmartSelect_20201221-212636_Samsung Internet.jpg

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6 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Probably going to get a cold/clear night out of it too. It cleared right up behind the front over here.

That does happen so easily down here.    Clouds will linger all night and temps will probably go up a little in the Seattle area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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45F and cloudy. Winds shifted from the S to the SW 9mph.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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