December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next weekend is looking a little chilly on the GFS. 

[BLI snowman]

 

9 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Looks like the mesos are favoring Seattle, but the globals are favoring Vic. Who would you believe in this situation?

I think Port Angeles-Victoria is the safest bet for a sustained period of heavy precip as the wind switches. I'd be surprised if Seattle proper actually sees accumulation below 400-500'. Eastern King County looks good though.

[Cloud]

Thinking this'll end up being a foothills event. 

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Thinking this'll end up being a foothills event. 

Tim actually invited every single one of us to stay at his house for the rest of Christmas week. I'll bring a few board games and plenty of snacks!

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

Shortest day (light) of the year...Last column is total day length.  I'm curious what everyone's day length (and location) is today.

I love picking out random cities on the map and finding out what their day length is around the solstices. Here the day length is just under 8:19 today.

[The Swamp]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Thinking this'll end up being a foothills event. 

this is exactly what it's going to be

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

What the hell?!

3.4“ at KBLI! Lookin’ good!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM and ICON bring the low in a bit further south than the GFS. FWIW.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z Euro continued with the idea put forth by the 00z that any snow for the EPSL will hold off until 7 or 8PM, after which it snows a couple inches by 11PM.

While the amounts aren't as crazy, it seems more plausible that we pick up snow at that time of day instead of starting at 1PM.

 

Whatcom County Special, baby!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We could have a 5-7 stretch of below normal temps coming up. No doubt we will pay for this in early January. 

[Jesse]

Looks like the talk of a 12/18 AR event wasn’t really all that off. Seems I remember some discussion of the possibility as early as the beginning of the month. Not bad for a three week forecast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looks like the talk of a 12/18 AR event wasn’t really all that off. Seems I remember some discussion of the possibility as early as the beginning of the month. Not bad for a three week forecast. 

Aged a lot better than that mid-month arctic blast. 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We could have a 5-7 stretch of below normal temps coming up. No doubt we will pay for this in early January. 

This post is infuriating but very likely correct.

[Cloud]

Ahhh yes.... nothing feels better than a late December morning 50 degrees. 

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This post is infuriating but very likely correct.

The rent in your head is starting to get pretty steep.

#gentrification

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Ahhh yes.... nothing feels better than a late December morning 50 degrees. 

Team 50˚F Rain has an incredible winning record!

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The rent in your head is starting to get pretty steep.

#gentrification

Do you think early January is gonna be cold?

[seattleweatherguy]

im above 300 feet its more than likely i will see at least some snow 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The professional mets seem to be fairly dismissive of what many operational model runs are saying about lowland snow. From this morning’s forecast discussion:

Quote

The upper trough and cold front will bring colder air. Some ensemble members show rain changing to snow for a few hours in the afternoon and evening for the lowlands but most solutions keep rain for the lowlands. The possibility for a little lowland snow will need to be monitored but for now the forecast will be for just rain with snow levels falling to 1000-1500 feet Monday afternoon and evening.

 

[TT-SEA]

Some models show the precip ending in the immediate Seattle area by late afternoon or early evening... like the GFS and the HRRR.    The HRRR shows its done by the time it gets dark tomorrow.

The ECMWF shows the main precip band just arriving around 5 p.m. in the Seattle area.

 

[wxmet]

Interesting the 00z GFS para supported the OP GFS with lowland snow.

[BLI snowman]

25 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Looks like the talk of a 12/18 AR event wasn’t really all that off. Seems I remember some discussion of the possibility as early as the beginning of the month. Not bad for a three week forecast. 

You're welcome 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not the worst GFS run ever. Not super interesting either though. 

[Esquimalt]

8 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Interesting the 00z GFS para supported the OP GFS with lowland snow.

Also showed me with 23 inches lol. 

[Blizzard777]

50* and breezy SSW winds

[Esquimalt]

The HRDPS looks really good for Seattle this morning.  I don't have any quality maps but looks like  a solid 6-8 inches for everyone from south king county to Everett. 

[wxmet]

6 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Also showed me with 23 inches lol. 

If it’s going to replace the GFS we might be in trouble lol.

UKMET 12z upped totals to around an inch in Seattle which seems somewhat realistic.

[Esquimalt]

Just now, wxmet said:

If it’s going to replace the GFS we might be in trouble lol.

UKMET 12z upped totals to around an inch in Seattle which seems somewhat realistic.

Yeah my totals are about 3 or 4 inches.  Are you thinking the euro/gfs solution or the HRDPS/NAM/HRRR solution will pan out? 

[Blizzard777]

A couple frogs making their rounds on FB.  Thought of Dolt and Timmy.  Perhaps you guys can add these into your inventory.  

[Esquimalt]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah this ain't happening. Pretty to look at though. 

It's believeable.  Very strong deformation band moving south east.  We haven't seen that previously but if it happens good for you guys. Obviously I would prefer the previous runs showing 8-14 inches in Vic, but you can't have it all

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, Esquimalt said:

Yeah my totals are about 3 or 4 inches.  Are you thinking the euro/gfs solution or the HRDPS/NAM/HRRR solution will pan out? 

Euro/GFS solution is way more likely. You always have to wonder if the hi-res models are picking up on something (especially in a dynamic environment like this) but I’ve been burned by that before.

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah this ain't happening. Pretty to look at though. 

That would break a few branches here at home !

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, wxmet said:

Euro/GFS solution is way more likely. You always have to wonder if the hi-res models are picking up on something (especially in a dynamic environment like this) but I’ve been burned by that before.

Sometimes the unexpected happens. Every now and then an event over performs...but reality is telling me people in the lowlands below 500’ and outside the convergence zone wont see much tomorrow. 

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's pretty apparent NWS Seattle is writing off the models and doesn't think anything will happen. There isn't even a mention of the word 'snow' for the EPSL. Not even rain/snow mix. 

Sometimes those surprise events are the best though. Catch everyone off-guard, even pro mets. Kind of fun. 

I agree totally and I’m counting on this one to come through! 

[Jesse]

27 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Do you think early January is gonna be cold?

We just don’t know at this point.

#infuriating

[Esquimalt]

2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Euro/GFS solution is way more likely. You always have to wonder if the hi-res models are picking up on something (especially in a dynamic environment like this) but I’ve been burned by that before.

The euro will be interesting to see this morning.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's pretty apparent NWS Seattle is writing off the models and doesn't think anything will happen. There isn't even a mention of the word 'snow' for the EPSL zone forecast. Not even rain/snow mix. 

Sometimes those surprise events are the best though. Catch everyone off-guard, even pro mets. Kind of fun. 

Murphy’s Law says that makes it more likely that lowland snow will materialize. Of course, Murphy’s Law also applies to itself and says that Murphy’s Law cannot be usefully used as a predictive tool. So take your pick.

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

A couple frogs making their rounds on FB.  Thought of Dolt and Timmy.  Perhaps you guys can add these into your inventory.  

The second one looks like the frog answer to Jack Nicholson at the end of The Shining.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Jesse said:

We just don’t know at this point.

#infuriating

Prepare for a lifetime of infuriation.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah this ain't happening. Pretty to look at though. 

Port Angeles will do well.