December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[wxmet]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's pretty apparent NWS Seattle is writing off the models and doesn't think anything will happen. There isn't even a mention of the word 'snow' for the EPSL zone forecast. Not even rain/snow mix. 

Sometimes those surprise events are the best though. Catch everyone off-guard, even pro mets. Kind of fun. 

It won’t be great for the people that are out and about if this event exceeds expectations since Seattle metro comes to a halt with 1in of snow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

12z WRF continues to look good for areas east of I5, especially foothills. 

Ah, finally a bit of blue for me out of that model.

[TacomaWaWx]

I’d be happy if we got 1/2” of snow tomorrow. Would be our first accumulating snowfall in December in 3 years. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Port Angeles will do well. 

It really seems so. Are there any current model runs indicating otherwise? I have not noticed any this morning.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z WRF continues to look good for areas east of I5, especially foothills. 

Trending north! Sound south really having its totals being cut. No snow from Olympia to Tacoma now

[Esquimalt]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Trending north! Sound south really having its totals being cut. No snow from Olympia to Tacoma now

It's kinda weird because the mesoscales other than the wrf are looking better for you guys in the seattle area but the global models have been getting worse. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Esquimalt said:

It's kinda weird because the mesoscales other than the wrf are looking better for you guys in the seattle area but the global models have been getting worse. 

I’m in the Foothills of Tacoma so it’s hurting me

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Of course we get a low tracking in the sweet spot when we have a gross warm air mass to work with lol.

[SouthHillFrosty]

What the...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’d be happy if we got 1/2” of snow tomorrow. Would be our first accumulating snowfall in December in 3 years. 

I don’t even remember the last Dec snow here. Was it 2016? I think it was just zr down here with that one. I think it was 2013 so over 7 years now. Depressing.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I don’t even remember the last Dec snow here. Was it 2016? I think it was just zr down here with that one. I think it was 2013 so over 7 years now. Depressing.

We’ve had snow in 2013, 2016 and 2017 in the month of December. No more than 3” of snow since 2008 though. 

[wxmet]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What the...

HRRR is trash 

[Jesse]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I don’t even remember the last Dec snow here. Was it 2016? I think it was just zr down here with that one. I think it was 2013 so over 7 years now. Depressing.

I love seeing your logic train in action here. If I can’t remember it it didn’t happen.

[Esquimalt]

3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

HRRR is trash 

I liked it last night when it had 13 inches over my house. Not so much now lol. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

If it snows more than 1" in downtown Seattle with this event I will never question the HRRR ever again.

[wxmet]

Piece of the trough will get sampled by the upper air network in Alaska for the 00z runs that will hopefully provide better insight into what’s going to happen with the system.

[Esquimalt]

Euro looks to be coming in stronger....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I don’t even remember the last Dec snow here. Was it 2016? I think it was just zr down here with that one. I think it was 2013 so over 7 years now. Depressing.

2013. The big Salem snow in 2016 was ZR in Eugene. 

[kokaneekidz]

27 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z WRF continues to look good for areas east of I5, especially foothills. 

It is quite evident that the WRF sees this as a 400' elevation scenario with the Edmonds - Paine Field - Clearview corridor doing better due to elevation help.

[jakerepp]

I guess the pro Mets know that there is no way of pinpointing what, if anything, will happen in a marginal scenario like this. Maybe they think it’s better to not really make a fuss about it at all then it would be to hype it up the way the snowfall maps are indicating.
 

Certainly a much better chance of a ‘bust’ than a ‘boom’. 

[Jesse]

I wonder how Failshington County is doing with this AR. 

[wxmet]

2 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Euro looks to be coming in stronger....

Looks to be coming in faster than 00z too

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, kokaneekidz said:

It is quite evident that the WRF sees this as a 400' elevation scenario with the Edmonds - Paine Field - Clearview corridor doing better due to elevation help.

I like that stretch of purple for Shoreline up through Everett. Looks like it’s indicating a situation where I get the goodies, and 2 miles down Edmonds way in the Bowl of Edmonds  near sea level ends up with a lot of nothing. 

[Phil]

35 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

A couple frogs making their rounds on FB.  Thought of Dolt and Timmy.  Perhaps you guys can add these into your inventory.  

Tim and Jim. 

[Phil]

THERE WE GO BABY!

[The Swamp]

30 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Port Angeles will do well. 

these maps look like something a 3 year old colored with a dull crayon

probably way over done and not precise enough

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

THERE WE GO ABBY!

fyp

[wxmet]

4-5 degree temp difference between Euro and NCEP models which is pretty crazy for an event happening tomorrow.

[Esquimalt]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

4-5 degree temp difference between Euro and NCEP models which is pretty crazy for an event happening tomorrow.

I think the mesos are off.  The euro being this consistent near an event must mean something. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF has been pretty insistent that c-zone will be up north after the main front.   Looks good for Randy.

 

[Blizzard777]

45 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

A couple frogs making their rounds on FB.  Thought of Dolt and Timmy.  Perhaps you guys can add these into your inventory.  

Fascinating fun fact on this little guy!

Each September, the wood frogs of Alaska do a very strange thing: They freeze.

They do not freeze totally solid, but they do freeze mostly solid. Two-thirds of their body water turns to ice. If you picked them up, they would not move. If you bent one of their legs, it would break.

Inside these frozen frogs other weird physiological things are going on. Their hearts stop beating, their blood no longer flows and their glucose levels sky rocket.

 

[Blizzard777]

35 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What the...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

By 9PM...

Changeover for Snohomish/King/Pierce doesn't happen until around 4-5PM with most of what falls occurring between 6-8PM. This seems like a fairly realistic map and scenario, IMO.

Still showing Whatcom County doing pretty well.

[bainbridgekid]

3rd straight WRF run to show 6+ inches for the hills of Shoreline/Lynnwood/Everett. Kind of crazy to see that. I can't remember the last time something like that happened and it didn't snow at all.

It obviously sees a 300+ foot snow level though so tomorrow will have the most razor thin of margins possible.

[Phil]

This might be the craziest output I’ve ever seen in the strat.

[kokaneekidz]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty good write up by Scott Sistek. Goes over all the possibilities and likelihoods for different areas.

https://komonews.com/news/local/winter-could-kick-off-with-a-brief-burst-of-snow-in-the-lowlands

THis is a great read and makes perfect sense. The warm ground will melt alot of the early snowfall. Also he is spot-on about the hilly areas fairing better. Even during non-marginal events , like a arctic frontal passage the Paine Field are will have 6 times more snow than the Mukilteo Ferry dock. like 8" up vs 1.5" at the beach

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

This might be the craziest output I’ve ever seen in the strat.

I feel like I've never seen you post one of these maps inside 300 hours. 

I know it's easier to predict the 10mb level, but it's still pretty hard for me to put much stock in that range. Should I?

[Phil]

What’s really crazy is the system that’s about to strike the PNW is what produces the big NATL wavebreak/-NAO, and even aids in the wave-2 response in the stratosphere.

Nature really is something. Watch what happens to the PNW system as it crosses the Rockies early in the gif.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

What’s crazy is the system that’s about to strike the PNW is what produces the big NATL wavebreak/-NAO, and even aids in the wave-2 response in the stratosphere.

Nature really is something.

Tiger says thanks for the Sunday morning seizure.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I feel like I've never seen you post one of these maps inside 300 hours. 

I know it's easier to predict the 10mb level, but it's still pretty hard for me to put much stock in that range. Should I?

The big ones sometimes latch on early. See Jan/Feb 2019. Whether it’s that extreme or something more..typical..is certainly debatable. But there’s less chaos in the stratosphere vs troposphere, and w/ poleward EP flux vectors persisting and a favorable East-Asia MT/MJO transit..the odds favor a SSW of some kind to open 2021.