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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


Omegaraptor

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

What’s really crazy is the system that’s about to strike the PNW is what produces the big NATL wavebreak/-NAO, and even aids in the wave-2 response in the stratosphere.

Nature really is something. Watch what happens to the PNW system as it crosses the Rockies early in the gif. 😱

image.thumb.gif.0464d8b7d6dd44ed99ea874943861aa6.gif

I made a shirt that looks like that at the Puyallup Fair one year.

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Looks like the water is just roaring out of the Santiam Canyon today. 

26D684D6-CC9F-4F06-BA7A-5365DAC3CF31.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

THERE WE GO BABY!

image.thumb.png.bd977da027ff75f7e37563da747079f0.png

Still stuck at hour 384. 🙃

Regardless of what happens with the SSW, the overall pattern looks to get more interesting towards the very end of the month. All models show increasing high latitude blocking in the general areas that lead to cold in the lower 48.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Wilson

Siletz

Siuslaw all under flood warnings now on the Oregon coast. SLE now over 1.5” of rain since midnight. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

What’s really crazy is the system that’s about to strike the PNW is what produces the big NATL wavebreak/-NAO, and even aids in the wave-2 response in the stratosphere.

Nature really is something. Watch what happens to the PNW system as it crosses the Rockies early in the gif. 😱

image.thumb.gif.0464d8b7d6dd44ed99ea874943861aa6.gif

I would recommend passing on this if you're smoking weed.  Reminds me of a 70's oil lamp.

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If the 18zzzz’s still have me in the blue I am going to go ahead and stage my plow and get the snow shovel out of the shed.

 

Currently drizzling and 46. 
.02” so far on the day. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1608465600-1608465600-1609761600-20.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1608465600-1608465600-1609761600-20.gif

I have seen worse. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

If the 18zzzz’s still have me in the blue I am going to go ahead and stage my plow and get the snow shovel out of the shed.

 

Currently drizzling and 46. 
.02” so far on the day. 

Is there any doubt you and Tim will be the big winners with this?

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

This is obviously overdone but still good to see it stick to it's guns.

nam-nest-conus-seattle-total_snow_10to1-8624000.png

Can you post the W Oregon one so I can pretend I will get a nice snow event tomorrow? 🤪

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like this is already SLE's wettest day since 2/5/17, Andrew.

Wow. Good to hear. Coming off 3 straight very dry water years we are probably due for some more of this... Hopefully. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

nam-nest-conus-oregon-total_snow_10to1-8627600.png

Thanks. Looks like about a 1000-1500 snow level. Not bad. I have become fairly skeptical we will see accumulating snow, but we ll see. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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46 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Still stuck at hour 384. 🙃

Regardless of what happens with the SSW, the overall pattern looks to get more interesting towards the very end of the month. All models show increasing high latitude blocking in the general areas that lead to cold in the lower 48.

Lol, well it’s moving up in timing. It’s just more of the event has entered the picture.

The blocky, highly meridional pattern you mention is directly associated with the tropical forcing/poleward EP flux vectors behind the SSW, so I don’t think you can really separate them.

I view the SSW is sort of an inflection point, or fork in the road, where its occurrence (or lack thereof) can/will have significant impacts for months afterwards following the same trigger. For instance, had the SSW in January 2019 failed, February 2019 outcome likely would have been very different..probably would’ve been an ordinary, canonical niño February. Deposition of momentum/Dt would have been radically different.  

 

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol, well it’s moving up in timing. It’s just more of the event has entered the picture.

The blocky, highly meridional pattern you mention is directly associated with the tropical forcing/poleward EP flux vectors behind the SSW, so I don’t think you can really separate them.

I view the SSW is sort of an inflection point, or fork in the road, where its occurrence (or lack thereof) can/will have significant impacts for months afterwards following the same trigger. For instance, had the SSW in January 2019 failed, February 2019 outcome likely would have been very different..probably would’ve been an ordinary, canonical niño February. Deposition of momentum/Dt would have been radically different.  

 

I agree, I don’t think it’s “stuck” at a certain range.  It’s definitely more of an evolution now which seems to be starting in a couple days.  Whether it evolves to an exceptional event is obviously unknown.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol, well it’s moving up in timing. It’s just more of the event has entered the picture.

The blocky, highly meridional pattern you mention is directly associated with the tropical forcing/poleward EP flux vectors behind the SSW, so I don’t think you can really separate them.

I view the SSW is sort of an inflection point, or fork in the road, where its occurrence (or lack thereof) can/will have significant impacts for months afterwards following the same trigger. For instance, had the SSW in January 2019 failed, February 2019 outcome likely would have been very different..probably would’ve been an ordinary, canonical niño February. Deposition of momentum/Dt would have been radically different.  

 

I know, was just giving you a hard time for the continuous 384 hour maps.

As we have discussed previously, there is some evidence that big SSWs are more likely during/right after low solar periods. If this one happens, would make two in less than two years.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Pretty sharp frontal passage Monday morning— NWS discussion mentioned a brief bout of gusty winds.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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