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December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW


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20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Did Phil write that?

Anyway, here is a segment:

"A few days later, the polar vortex is effectively split into two parts, from a double pressure wave compress. The main part moves over the Euro-Atlantic sector, with a smaller lobe over western North America. It essentially shows the complete dominance of the polar “anti-vortex” over the North Pole, and the polar vortex defeated"

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SSW in La Niña/+QBO also tends to favor the West. Feb 1989 is a prolific example where the SSW was concurrent with the pattern change.

Other times there’s more of a lag. But it’s rarely denied.

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1 minute ago, Esquimalt said:

Do you think the gfs or nam is more likely?  Something about the NAM’s shadowing seems weird

Hate to say it, but I feel the NAM will probably win this one. I've seen plenty of lows take the track shown there, but for whatever reason (maybe the Olympic range?) it's incredibly difficult to get lows tracking just south of here. I've never seen a low take the track the GFS has been showing. This has a very Dec 19, 2017 look to it, I can't remember how that one turned out around Seattle.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

SSW in La Niña/+QBO also tends to favor the West. Feb 1989 is a prolific example where the SSW was concurrent with the pattern change.

Other times there’s more of a lag. But it’s rarely denied.

For 1989, when did the SSW happen?  Wondering if this could be a mid January event rather than a very late January event.  IIRC 1989 got bitter cold, and then temps eased up toward normal after about a week, then got cold again early March.

 

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1608508800-sXn0pDGoLwc.png

 

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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52 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

For 1989, when did the SSW happen?  Wondering if this could be a mid January event rather than a very late January event.  IIRC 1989 got bitter cold, and then temps eased up toward normal after about a week, then got cold again early March.

 

At the end of January. Occurred concurrently with PNW arctic blast.

Doesn’t always happen that way. In 2019 there was a 2-week lag between SSW and residual/momentum effects on pattern.

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56F with the occasional sprinkle. S wind 12mph.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Thru 10PM tomorrow.

1608616800-GoqzWhcR9js.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1608616800-L3quu9Hnnvw.png

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Looks like 850mb temps briefly go above freezing over Victoria on this run, looks worse than the 0z to me even if it's showing those snowfall totals.

The HRDPS still looks decent: hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_14.png

This low is coming in stronger, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up a bit further north.  Either way, having the HRDPS, HRRR and GFS on our sides is pretty good I think 

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GFS is shitt after this event so not much point in posting. Have a good sleep errbody.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6z GEFS through Day 12 is trying really hard far more than previous runs to become ridgy with some amplification around ~150 W, but as you probably could guess the pattern is still too progressive. I gotta think within the next 4-5 days the ole shoe(or boot) on the other foot is about to drop. The saying goes something like that.

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Completely spaced the 06z today; just forgot about it entirely. Ended up playing some COD Zombies with my friends.

Either way it's really saddening to see people get disappointed over "rug-pulls" despite model solutions, for a variety of well documented reasons; such as cold biases, onshore flow, lower snow-water ratios, warm ground temps; vastly overestimating snowfall totals. This wasn't a "sneak attack". Your rose colored glasses obscured the obvious warning signs that were placed right in front of your faces.

Oh, and by the way, in case you didn't know, the whole thing hasn't happened yet. It could very well still snow. Heavier precip rates or colder damming over the Olympics compared to current projections could all ultimately lead to more snowfall. It's a very feasible setup.

I'll be looking forward to the extreme temperature swings and the potential for some snow flying in the air. That is a very nice thing to be looking forward to. And I'm glad that's what I held my expectations to.

The earth moves on.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Completely spaced the 06z today; just forgot about it entirely. Ended up playing some COD Zombies with my friends.

Either way it's really saddening to see people get disappointed over "rug-pulls" despite model solutions, for a variety of well documented reasons; such as cold biases, onshore flow, lower snow-water ratios, warm ground temps; vastly overestimating snowfall totals. This wasn't a "sneak attack". Your rose colored glasses obscured the obvious warning signs that were placed right in front of your faces.

Oh, and by the way, in case you didn't know, the whole thing hasn't happened yet. It could very well still snow. Heavier precip rates or colder damming over the Olympics compared to current projections could all ultimately lead to more snowfall. It's a very feasible setup.

I'll be looking forward to the extreme temperature swings and the potential for some snow flying in the air. That is a very nice thing to be looking forward to. And I'm glad that's what I held my expectations to.

The earth moves on.

I'm wondering if the previous runs were not sampling the atmosphere properly thinking it was going to be colder than it really is overestimating the rate of cooling regardless of precip rates. I dunno.

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Oh yeah and all current projections point to a snowy January for many here. Potentially one of the best SSW's of the last decade coinciding with -ENSO and +QBO, along with favorable a favorable MJO state/tropical forcing. Much, much better potential than December. (Not saying that we'll see the blast of the century, obviously the details of the pattern still remain. But there's a heightened risk.)

Lots to look forward to. No need for the doom and gloom.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm wondering if the previous runs were not sampling the atmosphere properly thinking it was going to be colder than it really is overestimating the rate of cooling regardless of precip rates. I dunno.

It happens to the best of models. Still not writing anything off though. Both warm and cold. 

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z wasn’t bad really. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Hoping someone gets nailed with snow today! Leaving for Austin Texas just got on the plane. Shouldn’t wind up being much snow in Tacoma anyways and even so it’d be gone soon. Hoping for something really good in January. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hoping someone gets nailed with snow today! Leaving for Austin Texas just got on the plane. Shouldn’t wind up being much snow in Tacoma anyways and even so it’d be gone soon. Hoping for something really good in January. 

Have a safe and fun trip. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Well, it may not get white out there, but at least it's quite wet. Already 0.65" on the day. We've been pretty heavily shadowed over the last couple of months so it's nice to be out of it for a bit.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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