December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Got an inch and a half on Christmas day last year.  Surprisingly, really haven't got much since then over here.  Looks like there may be a chance of something this year too.....

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, El_Nina said:

First you mentioned yesterday the snowpack was surprisingly unaffected by the AR and would actually probabaly go up again last night. Then now you seem to have forgotten it was 60 just yesterday even though you were talking about it all afternoon. 

It was both 50+ and 60+ yesterday. You guys are both right.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 18z was a bit of a warm outlier. 

As usual, there is little reason to trust the models more than a few days out, but the Euro sure was a lot more intriguing.

[Dave]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

NWS going for 22 at EUG tomorrow night. 

I think you misread that. Looks like they're going for 27. Maybe a few frostmen are in the cards for this Christmas.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

As usual, there is little reason to trust the models more than a few days out, but the Euro sure was a lot more intriguing.

Please post a link.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It was both 50+ and 60+ yesterday. You guys are both right.

That’s why I added the plus.

[OysterPrintout]

2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Please post a link.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/

[TheNewCulverJosh]

3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Well, I could've done that....:).

I am busy and have a 6 month old that needs attention......a link to the latest KING EURO!!!!

[Dave]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

As usual, there is little reason to trust the models more than a few days out, but the Euro sure was a lot more intriguing.

Yep, just pick a time frame and click back 8 runs and watch how different they are. Pretty crazy.

[OysterPrintout]

2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Well, I could've done that....:).

I am busy and have a 6 month old that needs attention......a link to the latest KING EURO!!!!

hmm ok it's only a few more clicks but here ya go may I suggest a bookmark for future requests  https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=500h_anom&rh=2020122212&fh=0&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

[Gradient Keeper]

The most interesting thing I can find. 18z GEFS did feature the best Columbia Basin cold pool yet through about January 4th. If that persists, if there is any snow cover in the Eastern Gorge/Columbia Basin that would be even colder. If the jet is suppressed and systems largely move into our south, cold east winds would continue for quite some time with low level cold building in the Central to Western Gorge. Then we would just need moisture. Who knows....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48/36 for the day with the occasional shower. Much better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, dolt said:

I think you misread that. Looks like they're going for 27. Maybe a few frostmen are in the cards for this Christmas.

 

[Dave]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

Poking around a bit, I find the NWS website to be pretty inconsistent. I'm getting different predictions from your link, my phone app (that uses NWS predictions), and their main website. I'll be fine with 22. Maybe I can make some wheelbarrow ice.

[Deweydog]

46 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Sometimes things can get out of line.

As long as you’ve got a good lawyer it’s fine.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, North_County said:

In November (I think), a couple of individuals were arrested trying to sabotage the train tracks in Bellingham using shunts. Catch-and-release. Reportedly they were associated with groups protesting the coal train shipments using the line. At the time, it was reported that there were something like 20 similar cases or discoveries in the last year-ish in Skagit and Whatcom counties. The Bellingham Herald referred to the Whatcom train network as a "prime target."

You could very well be correct, and this could be mere operator error. But it's not exactly tinfoil-hat-worthy to think it's highly suspicious.

What they were doing was installing a “shunt,” a device that shorts the two rails together, thereby electrically mimicking the presence of a train and fooling the signaling system into turning lights red and stopping trains. Note the last part: stopping trains. Make them stop when it is otherwise safe to proceed. Not the reverse.

While illegal, and technically an act of terrorism because it entails electrically tampering with a signaling system, installing shunts can not cause a derailment.

[MossMan]

32! Melt-a-thon is over for now!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

As long as you’ve got a good lawyer it’s fine.

I think you'll be mine.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I think you'll be mine.

To that I’ll raise a stein.

[North_County]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What they were doing was installing a “shunt,” a device that shorts the two rails together, thereby electrically mimicking the presence of a train and fooling the signaling system into turning lights red and stopping trains. Note the last part: stopping trains. Make them stop when it is otherwise safe to proceed. Not the reverse.

While illegal, and technically an act of terrorism because it entails electrically tampering with a signaling system, installing shunts can not cause a derailment.

I don't pretend to be a train expert, but the DOJ release from November 30th specifically identifies derailments multiple times as a danger of installing shunts.

https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdwa/pr/pair-charged-interfering-safety-railroad-tracks

"“Since January there have been 41 incidents of shunts placed on the BNSF tracks in Whatcom and Skagit counties—causing crossing guards to malfunction, interfering with automatic braking systems, and, in one case, causing the near-derailment of tanks of hazardous chemicals,” said U.S. Attorney Moran"

"On the night of October 11, 2020, multiple shunts were placed in three different locations in Whatcom and Skagit Counties.  The shunts triggered an automatic braking system on a train that was transporting hazardous and combustible material.  The emergency braking then caused a portion of the train to decouple from the engine.  Decoupling has the potential to cause a derailment—in this case—of tanker cars of flammable gas in a residential area. "

Further, intuitively, causing a vehicle with hundreds or thousands of tons of trailing weight, insane amounts of momentum, and dozens of points of articulation, to stop suddenly and unexpectedly, seems like exactly the kind of thing that would cause a derailment. Like a semi jacknifing from sudden braking. (And yes, I get that the safety braking system triggered isn't necessarily like slamming on the brakes, but I also assume it's more sudden and less prepared for than a typical planned braking. And that's alot of momentum to bring to a stop.)

Again, it very well could be basic mechanical failure or operator error. But it's also not wise to immediately dismiss even the remote possibility that the 41 known incidents of railway tampering in the last year could be related.

[Jbolin]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

To that I’ll raise a stein.

Or, 

[North_County]

I didn't mean to tie up the thread with off-topic discussion when I responded to the initial post. Can these posts be moved to the banter thread?

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Or, 

I’ve always thought of a sudden stratospheric warming as being just like the bubble.

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve always thought of a sudden stratospheric warming as being just like the bubble.

Turn the boot, have to win this round and make it to "Weed Fest".

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Turn the boot, have to win this round and make it to "Weed Fest".

What a boot our friends in Canada???

[MossMan]

We need another snow event...Stat!!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

38 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

To that I’ll raise a stein.

Always is good when you dine.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We need another snow event...Stat!!! 

I think 4-6 weeks of recovery and personal reflection time is appropriate.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

38 minutes ago, North_County said:

"On the night of October 11, 2020, multiple shunts were placed in three different locations in Whatcom and Skagit Counties.  The shunts triggered an automatic braking system on a train that was transporting hazardous and combustible material.  The emergency braking then caused a portion of the train to decouple from the engine.  Decoupling has the potential to cause a derailment—in this case—of tanker cars of flammable gas in a residential area. "

This is an overzealous prosecutor, and why trials have cross-examinations. Emergency stops can damage couplers and wheels, but they almost never cause derailments.

And a shunt in and of itself cannot trigger an automatic emergency stop. Ignoring a red light caused by a shunt can, but ignored red lights are the fault of the engineer.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

30˚F. Side-streets have refrozen into sheets of ice.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Last nights GEFS, starting at day 17.

 

[MossMan]

I had .54” of snowmelt today! 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 Please, give us something. Anything.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Odds that something’s wrong with the temperature sensor at YXX? I’d say 80 or 90 percent.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[MossMan]

Temp up to 34!  

Had a high of 39. 
6.57” for the month, 60.37” for the year. 
3.5” of snow for the season so far. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Holding steady at 30˚F here. Just didn’t plummet at sundown like I thought it would. Looks like my earlier forecast low of 25˚F needs to be adjusted up to 28˚F.