December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Timmy_Supercell 2477]

45 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

About freezing fog - there exists a very strong type of freezing fog called pogonip in some Western mountain valleys. It is most well associated with northern Nevada, but parts of Idaho and Colorado get it as well.

I do wonder if something like this (taken near Elko, NV) is possible anywhere in Oregon:

Dec 2013 did that to my area. I'm gonna dig up some photos of that. Picture 240 hours in a row not even hitting 32 degrees. 

[Timmy 2216]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm sure the ensembles show a ton of promise. 

They do indeed.  Some go very cold.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2970]

Ensemble mean is very amplified, though not in an ideal place.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5809]

Very nice

[Jesse 9379]

Low of 30 here early this morning before the fog formed. Now up to 36 with very dense fog. Winter.

[Phil 12288]

6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Last frame of the GFS. Goodies are coming.

To think, that’s what the *background state* looked like for most of the 1950s/60s.

[Phil 12288]

16 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Ensemble mean is very amplified, though not in an ideal place.

 

It’ll get there eventually, some time by the third week of the month.

Wave pool reshuffles are seldom quick and clean. Keeping the high latitude blocking in place during the transition is what I’m looking for.

[Christensen87 294]

12 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Your name is Chris too? Small world.

[Phil 12288]

It’s flurrying and smells like woodsmoke. I’m in a winter mood today.

[Jesse 9379]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

About freezing fog - there exists a very strong type of freezing fog called pogonip in some Western mountain valleys. It is most well associated with northern Nevada, but parts of Idaho and Colorado get it as well.

I do wonder if something like this (taken near Elko, NV) is possible anywhere in Oregon:

 

Considering Elko Nevada is only 100 miles southeast of the Oregon border, prolly.

I have seen that type of freezing fog all the way up through central Oregon into the Columbia basin in Washington. I'd imagine any valley in the intermountain west that can see days of freezing fog without any sort of atmospheric disturbance is capable of that sort of thing. No reason it would only be confined to specific regions of certain states.

[Jesse 9379]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s flurrying and smells like woodsmoke. I’m in a winter mood today.

We still looking at a roasty, toasty summer out west?

[TigerWoodsLibido 5809]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

We still looking at a roasty, toasty summer out west?

AKA a PNW summer now.

[Rubus Leucodermis 1347]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

About freezing fog - there exists a very strong type of freezing fog called pogonip in some Western mountain valleys. It is most well associated with northern Nevada, but parts of Idaho and Colorado get it as well.

I do wonder if something like this (taken near Elko, NV) is possible anywhere in Oregon:

As Timmy Supercell just posted, it is easily possible in Oregon.

I saw such conditions throughout much of the winter in northern Utah in my college years.

[Timmy_Supercell 2477]

I have definitely had the type of fog that made trees look like they have snow on them, but actually an accumulation of frozen particles.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15583]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

AKA a PNW summer now.

The chances of us having a cool summer are about as good as another January 1950.

[Jesse 9379]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The chances of us having a cool summer are about as good as another January 1950.

Although our last statistically cool summer was less than a decade ago versus 70 years ago. 

I would say a summer like 1954 is probably about as likely as a 1949-50 repeat at this point.

[Timmy_Supercell 2477]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The chances of us having a cool summer are about as good as another January 1950.

Well, it doesn't have to be a summer that never hits 90 at PDX.. Maybe just something like a -1.0 to -1.5 for J/J/A kind of summer?

[SilverFallsAndrew 15583]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Although our last statistically cool summer was less than a decade ago versus 70 years ago. 

I would say a summer like 1954 is probably about as likely as a 1949-50 repeat at this point.

Maybe as likely as a top tier regional blast. 

[Phil 12288]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We still looking at a roasty, toasty summer out west?

Avoiding a super PV/+NAM and a sea of circum-sub polar/mid latitude ridges would at least tilt the odds cooler (statistically) following -ENSO.

2nd half of winter gives stronger indicators, though.

[bainbridgekid 3987]

Spokane had 17" of snow in October/November. 8th most ever. 2010 is top at 25.9".

[Jesse 9379]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Spokane had 17" of snow in October/November. 8th most ever. 2010 is top at 25.9".

Although I'm guessing basically all of that fell in November.

[Jginmartini 4007]

While waiting for the mid month change I’m monitoring Barrow thanks to Tyler.

I did witness Kurt Russell one night or was it day chasing “The Thing” with a blow torch! 
 

38*

[Timmy_Supercell 2477]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

While waiting for the mid month change I’m monitoring Barrow thanks to Tyler.

I did witness Kurt Russell one night or was it day chasing “The Thing” with a blow torch! 
 

38*

I love his movies. One of my favorites is Big Trouble in Little China. lol

[Jginmartini 4007]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I love his movies. One of my favorites is Big Trouble in Little China. lol

Love Big Trouble in Little China ....Jack Burton and his sidekick Wang 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5809]

13 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I love his movies. One of my favorites is Big Trouble in Little China. lol

Very versatile actor. The escape from New York and LA movies were silly fun.

[TT-SEA 4580]

41 and sunny... no east wind here yet.   

[FroYoBro 2707]

Sun just broke out here. Up to 41. It looks like Pdx isn’t reporting right now? 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15583]

Hopefully I will be in Spokane for next winter...

[ShawniganLake 5518]

It was a frosty start but nothing but beautiful warm sunshine now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 15583]

No hourly Obs since 9am. What gives?

[Timmy_Supercell 2477]

December 2013. I didn't log what days I took the pictures. The first picture was the start of the hard freeze, this progressed as time went.

I have not seen it this defined in a long time.

Pictures 5 and 6, insane accumulation on those pine needles.

[High Desert Mat? 469]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

December 2013. I didn't log what days I took the pictures. The first picture was the start of the hard freeze, this progressed as time went.

I have not seen it this defined in a long time.

Pictures 5 and 6, insane accumulation on those pine needles.

Ya I don’t have any pics but I’ve seen it in the Bend/Redmond area a number of times like that over the last decade. 

[Omegaraptor 2471]

6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

December 2013. I didn't log what days I took the pictures. The first picture was the start of the hard freeze, this progressed as time went.

I have not seen it this defined in a long time.

Pictures 5 and 6, insane accumulation on those pine needles.

Very nice pictures. That’s some pretty heavy freezing fog.

[SouthHillFrosty 1506]

Possible sudden stratospheric warming during January. What do you think @Phil

[TigerWoodsLibido 5809]

EC ensemble way better.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15583]

11 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

December 2013. I didn't log what days I took the pictures. The first picture was the start of the hard freeze, this progressed as time went.

I have not seen it this defined in a long time.

Pictures 5 and 6, insane accumulation on those pine needles.

I am glad there are some powerlines in these pics.

[Timmy_Supercell 2477]

Observations across the board not reporting. Checked KSLE, KEUG and KLMT. Nothing since 9am. We'll live I think.

[Jesse 9379]

Fog is lifting a bit here. 37 degrees.

[TT-SEA 4580]

Wow... the 12Z EPS shows a much stronger cold signal in the long range.

 

[Omegaraptor 2471]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Observations across the board not reporting. Checked KSLE, KEUG and KLMT. Nothing since 9am. We'll live I think.

First they took away the 5 minute obs and now the hourlies. I guess we’re getting dailies now.

[SilverFallsAndrew 15583]

36 and brilliant sunshine here!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2970]

On 11/30/2020 at 11:00 AM, DJ Droppin said:

I suspect the 12z EPS will show a bit more in the way of retrogression, but not yet ideal.

 

15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC ensemble out to 10-ish days. Cold signal already better.

And here is the last 5 days.

 

[Deweydog 14345]

Not even noon and already on page 2!

We need to pace ourselves for the loads and reloads.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5809]

Last frame comparison

Morning EC

Yesterday evening's EC ensemble last frame

[SilverFallsAndrew 15583]

December could wind up being pretty chilly in the valleys and basins. Especially if we transition straight to a more favorable upper level patter the 2nd half of the month. 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5809]

And more late-frame comparison

Morning EC ensemble

Last night's EC ensemble

Patience

[SilverFallsAndrew 15583]

It seems like the higher latitude blocking is beginning to emerge at the end of this run of the EC ensembles. Height rises are beginning to creep into the SE too. 

[hawkstwelve 7364]

12z EPS looks like it's going places near the end of the run if you play the extrapolation game.

[MossMan 10875]

White Christmas for all! 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5809]

Morning EC ensemble

Last night's

That's a pretty significant drop at the end.